- Click to share on Facebook (Opens in a new window)
- Click to share on Twitter (Opens in a new window)
- Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in a new window)
- Click to email a friend (Opens in a new window)
Editor's Note: Roberto Izurieta is Director of Latin American Projects at George Washington University. He has worked in political campaigns in several countries in Latin America and Spain and has been an adviser to Presidents Alejandro Toledo of Peru, Vicente Fox of Mexico and Alvaro Colom of Guatemala. Izurieta is also a political analyst on CNN en Español. The opinions expressed in this column are exclusive to the author.
(CNN Spanish) - In these days of uncertainty, when we sought to have more information and answers to our concerns, I spoke with experts in the field to better understand.
1. How long will the pandemic last?
It will probably last a couple of winters, as I mentioned in my first article on the subject. The last four pandemics of influenza, another respiratory illness, lasted a couple of winters and then turned into one more epidemic.
2. The coronavirus changes (mutates) all the time. Does this mean that the protection acquired by becoming infected disappears?
Viruses undergo different mutations, but the most radical are those that occur when the virus jumps between species (this is what has caused the most severe influenza pandemics).
Mutations within the same species are usually milder and much of the immunity acquired against the initial virus is usually preserved.
3. There is not enough evidence. Can we then get an idea of the real magnitude of the pandemic in our countries?
Admittedly, with insufficient evidence, it is difficult to know how many new patients there are each week and it is also difficult to assess one of the most important rates: the case fatality rate.
This figure is further distorted because the few tests that exist are usually used first in hospitals, which are those that receive the seriously ill. Therefore, to compare the impact between two countries and in the absence of sufficient evidence, it is better to compare the number of deaths and extrapolate it to obtain the expected number of cases each week (depending on the progress of the disease). Using this technique, the United States could lower the curve and not follow the trend of others, including Italy, China, Spain, France and Iran, as it has done so far, not counting China, because they have a smaller population.
There is one caveat with totalitarian governments, which can sometimes hide their dead, at least for a time.
4. Are there enough respirators to save all patients?
This is one of the many problems, the result of the little preparation of governments that chose to ignore science about the inevitability of epidemics. However, human creativity is enormous to find solutions and the internet allows exchanging ideas at incredible speed. For example, in New York, Governor Andrew Cuomo has authorized the use of the same ventilator simultaneously for two patients. The fans are quite powerful machines. By doubling the number of patients more can benefit.
5. Will the world economy fall into a depression because of the coronavirus?
That is what many think today, guided by fear and uncertainty of how this pandemic evolves. But probably after a couple of winters, the problem will have subsided to manageable limits. Let us also remember that this pandemic usually affects more the very old and less children (the future of the economy) and people of production age (their present).
So the economy could resurface immediately after the pandemic. There are other viruses like Ebola, measles, plague, etc. they have been much more cruel. As Hausman says, "This is a distribution problem, not a demand problem," which is easier to solve. Friedman also gives us many guidelines on how to handle this type of crisis.
This virus has forced us to adapt - isn't that what Darwin said? - doing things that many of us believed impossible. To mention a few: we have learned to communicate better online, to understand that we are interdependent, to be supportive.
Also, it is possible that today more people believe more in science, including global warming (a worse threat but, for today, less visible than the coronavirus), than in the "fake news" or false news.
Finally, we must make it clear that countries in which there is democracy, transparency, and policies that have relied on science (rather than demagoguery, rhetoric, or neglect) have been better prepared and more likely to combat this pandemic. These countries should progress more rapidly after the pandemic.
6. Is absolute quarantine the only solution? Can the poorest countries comply?
Everything has a price and the buyer must be able to pay it. There are examples such as the Netherlands that, carefully adapted, taking what is most useful, could help to develop alternative measures that include the careful isolation of high-risk people.
Countries at risk of economic and social catastrophe will have to realistically assess the prevention alternatives available for their particular situation, including the feasibility, costs and benefits for health, the economy and short and long-term social stability of each measure. that is proposed, because health is multifactorial.
7. Will there be accessible treatments for the poorest countries?
Sooner or later there will be, but for now no specific treatment has been approved. When there are, let's hope they are accessible to everyone. There are possible treatments that are being explored that even the poorest countries could use, for example, the serum of convalescent patients.
8. How will we determine when it is appropriate to end quarantine? Counting cases?
In reality, the number of cases is highly dependent on the availability of evidence, which varies from country to country and from corner to corner. On the other hand, an individual may have been infected and have no symptoms. Therefore, it would be better to consider other alternatives. For example, in measles and rubella epidemics, governments determine the level of protection of the population by evaluating the proportion of people vaccinated, or the proportion of people living with HIV.
Although there is no vaccine for the coronavirus yet - there will be - serological surveys can be carried out, taking random blood samples from the population of interest (for example, New York), to see how many are already protected with specific immunoglobulins against this coronavirus. . If the proportion of individuals with positive antibodies to the coronavirus is high, they will form a barrier (herd immunity) that will protect the most fragile. Then they could, for example, relax quarantine measures in that population. These data are then extrapolated to other populations using models already developed.
Let us always remember that avoiding unemployment is also promoting health, and we give thanks to those workers who, often in exchange for a minimum wage, protect us by bringing our purchases, serving in supermarkets and hospitals, etc. in the midst of what could be the worst pandemic in 101 years.
covid-19 quarantine victims
