"Forget it": scientist calculates Corona development for Germany - her conclusion does not sound good

Coronavirus measures: In a YouTube video, chemist Mai Thi Nguyen speaks of a marathon - but with a clear perspective

• During the Corona * crisis , strict measures apply that restrict public and private life.
• While some politicians are calling for an early exit, others are keeping a low profile.
• The scientist and ARD / ZDF youtuber Mai Thi Nguyen-Kim is now talking about a marathon that lies ahead of us.
• Here you will find the basic facts about the corona virus, current case numbers worldwide and the latest developments in Germany.
  

Munich - Mai Thi Nguyen Kim studied chemistry in Germany and the USA and did her doctorate. Together with Harald Lesch she appeared in science programs. In cooperation with ARD and ZDF , she has been running a YouTube channel since 2016, which brings young people in particular closer to science topics. Her most recent video from April 1 has reached over three million viewers to date (as of April 6) - although it does address some things that shouldn't please her target audience , or perhaps because of it.

"The problem is that some are now beginning to get the impression that maybe after Easter, maybe a little bit later, we got over it somewhat unscathed. Unfortunately, this idea is unrealistic fantasy . "

Youtuberin Mai: The corona crisis is just starting

"As long as we don't have a vaccine , the pandemic will only be over when 60 to 70 percent of people have become infected, have recovered and are then immune," said Mai Nguyen-Kim. With currently 73,000 known cases, one could assume that in total about 730,000 people were or were already infected - 48 to 56 million infected people would first guarantee herd immunity . This makes it clear to her viewers: “The corona crisis is just starting. It won't be over until we have a vaccine. ”

Coronavirus measures: How flat does the curve have to be?

Scientists are currently trying to use modeling to derive which measures can be used to influence the epidemic * and how. With around 30,000 existing intensive care beds, of which there was talk recently, and two to five percent of all infected people who depend on lying in such a bed for ten to 20 days, a sick person may only infect 1.1 more people . The bottom line for Mai Nguyen-Kim is: “In order to avoid the collapse of the health system, we have to maintain strict measures for one to two years . And that doesn't work. ”What are the alternatives ?

Coronavirus Measures: Alternatives to Flatten-the-Curve Strategy

To understand alternatives, you first have to know that epidemics * are in phases. Two of them are:

Nguyen-Kim puts it this way: “The Flatten-the-Curve strategy until the epidemic is contained will not work. Flattening alone would take too long. We have to stop the curve and return to phase 1, containment . Then, for the most part, something like normal would come back and the isolation of sick people and the follow-up of contacts could be practiced again. "

Important #maiLab video with possible corona scenarios that everyone should know: https://t.co/xqKc3RBiFs

Data should first show whether the current measures are actually sufficient. In his own model calculation, Nguyen-Kim comes to the conclusion that in this case too, all strict measures would have to be carried out for about 56 days - but this is not a forecast.

Coronavirus measures: how can it go on?

In the end, she made it clear: “We are working to relax the measures , but we will not be able to do without them for a long time. Football stadiums, concerts, conferences, après ski this year? Forget it!"

We would all have to hold out until the vaccine - because natural herd immunity can only be achieved if the prices for the health system or the psyche and economy are too high. Your good news: Phase 1 is no longer the same the second time: knowledge, test and hospital capacities, staff in authorities and acceptance among the population are much further.

Coronavirus measures: what is it about Nguyen-Kim's scenario?

Nguyen-Kim himself says that it is based on model calculations (including from the Robert Koch Institute ), but that each epidemic occurs individually. Unknown variables are, for example, seasonal trends or the comparatively asymptomatic trends in many people.

Nevertheless, the scenario - sticking to the strict measures, returning to somewhat relaxed measures - seems to be a realistic way. In order to be able to derive concrete measures , the data basis must first be improved, which is also often seen by experts and politicians - while there is a lot of disagreement about details, as was the case with Anne Will. Although calls for earlier easing are particularly loud from the economy, the measures are still very popular, especially among the population. But the answer to the Youtuber remains guilty: What could the return to phase 1 look like for people from high - risk groups ?

A doctor now tweeted why disposable gloves in particular are not a good idea.

* Merkur.de is part of the Germany-wide Ippen-Digital editors network.