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Liang Zhuowei's "New York Times" wrote that it is difficult for the ban to gather for a long time.

2020-04-07T07:00:29.977Z


New Coronary Pneumonia continues to threaten Hong Kong. Dean Liang Zhuowei of the School of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong wrote in the "New York Times" on April 6 that the containment and prohibition policies cannot be sustained. Not only will society have to pay huge economic losses, but it will also wear down the will of people. And mental health. He believes that the pandemic will not diminish until half of the world's population is immunized or recovered, or effective vaccines are available. Liang Zhuowei estimates that a large number of deaths will inevitably occur during the process of immunization, but the development of effective vaccines will take 1 to 2 years, so he proposes a "slack and tight" policy, that is, after a period of ban, it can be gradually let People return to their normal lives, and if there is an outbreak, they will tighten their policies until they find out that the epidemic is under control and their economic and social losses are within a tolerable lifestyle.


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Written by: McCain

2020-04-07 13:35

Date of last update: 2020-04-07 14:58

New Coronary Pneumonia continues to threaten Hong Kong. Dean Liang Zhuowei of the School of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong wrote in the "New York Times" on April 6 that the containment and prohibition policies cannot be sustained. Not only will society have to pay huge economic losses, but it will also wear down the will of people. And mental health. He believes that the pandemic will not diminish until half of the world's population is immunized or recovered, or effective vaccines are available.

Liang Zhuowei estimates that a large number of deaths will inevitably occur during the process of immunization, but the development of effective vaccines will take 1 to 2 years, so he proposes a "slack and tight" policy, that is, after a period of ban, it can be gradually let People return to their normal lives, and if there is an outbreak, they will tighten their policies until they find out that the epidemic is under control and their economic and social losses are within a tolerable lifestyle.

Liang Zhuowei, Dean of the School of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong, put forward new suggestions that preventive measures should balance the economy and people's livelihood. (Profile picture / Photo by Yu Junliang)

Liang Zhuowei wrote in the "New York Times" that "containment is not an eternal plan, how should we face it?", Pointing out that the containment and prohibition policies are effective in curbing the spread of new coronary pneumonia, but they inevitably cause huge economic losses. , While killing people's will and spiritual health. He also believes that there is no scientific benchmark for the containment and prohibition policies, such as how long it will take effect before it is implemented, and how long it can be lifted.

Therefore, Liang Zhuowei put forward the policy of "relaxing and tightening". The government can allow people to return to normal life after a period of prohibition. If the outbreak occurs, they can tighten the policy and try again and again until they find out that the epidemic is acceptable. Under control, and the economic and social losses are within a tolerable lifestyle.

▼ Anti-epidemic and spicy recruiting more than four people gather to close many facilities ▼

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The government must adjust preventive measures accurately

Liang Zhuowei pointed out that the implementation of containment policies in many places failed. For example, in Wuhan in February and northern Italy in March due to the rapid spread of the epidemic in both places, the policy can only reduce the scourge caused by the epidemic. Although Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan have not experienced local epidemics, the situation may only be temporary. The United States and many countries in Western Europe are also facing the epidemic. The local government is looking for a model that can prevent the expansion of the epidemic without harming the economy.

He reiterated in the article that until half of the world's population is immunized or recovered, or effective vaccines are available, the pandemic will decline. However, the former will cause a large number of deaths, especially the elderly and the poor; the latter will require 1 to 2 years of research and development, and society cannot withstand large-scale containment and prohibition policies for a long time.

Lin Zheng: Will not take extreme measures

Against this pandemic, Liang Zhuowei bluntly asked the three parties, that is, the epidemic situation, economy and people's livelihood to achieve a balance is the biggest challenge. However, before implementing the "relaxed and tight" policy, the government must accurately adjust the preventive measures. It is recommended to start with the number of daily diagnoses and calculate the transmission time of the virus and the way of transmission. The School of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong is studying this, and began to develop real-time data charts in February to reduce the time difference between the infected and the diagnosis. In the future, the medical school hopes to use the location data of citizens when they use the Octopus card to calculate, and to infer how people spread the virus.

When Chief Executive Lin Zhengyue was asked about Liang Zhuowei's views this morning (7th), Lin Zheng responded that she had watched the progress of the epidemic since January and stressed that she would find practical measures after listening to the opinions of the expert group and would not take Extreme measures such as closing all restaurants.

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Source: hk1

All news articles on 2020-04-07

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