Virologists estimate the corona dark figure in Germany - if it is true, it would be worrying

Over 100,000 people in Germany have already been infected with the corona virus. The actual number is even higher. It is also critical to the death rate.

• The number of positive coronavirus infections * leaves many questions unanswered.
• The real figure is crucial. That is why representative studies are currently underway in Germany.
• Here you will find the basic facts about the corona virus *, current case numbers * and the latest developments in Germany *.

Munich - In his MDR podcast , Professor Alexander S. Kekulé dealt with the possible undisclosed number of corona infected people on Monday. Representative tests are currently running in the Heinsberg area and in Munich to find out how many people have been infected with the corona virus without noticing it. Corona tests were carried out in 3000 randomly selected households in Munich on Sunday, as tz.de * previously reported.

Corona virus undisclosed number in Germany: That is why the number is so important

It is certain that far more than the approximately 100,000 people tested positive in Germany have become infected, but many have hardly had any symptoms, so they have not been tested. The number of unreported cases is decisive for two important questions: What is the proportion of the population that has already developed antibodies and is therefore immune - and how dangerous is the virus actually. Because a realistic number of cases can also be used to derive the proportion of those patients who need medical help or even die *. If you have this quota, you can calculate the danger of the virus in the event of an outbreak on a large part of the population.

Corona: Study in South Korea reveals worrying unreported figures

"I fear that the data from South Korea are relatively reliable. South Korea * is world champion in testing. (...) And there it is so that you assume the order of magnitude of 1: 3, ”said Kekulé *. A undisclosed number of two undetected infected people to one who tested positive. "Mortality can be derived relatively well from this figure." Kekulé fears that we also have a similar rate in Germany. “That means that the mortality rate is somewhere around 0.2 percent or something in the population average. One in 500 on the order of magnitude. ” It would be a worryingly high rate. Extrapolated to ten million infected people, for example, would mean 20,000 fatalities.

“The number of infected people is misleading as long as the unknown number of infected people who have not been tested is unknown. The numbers of patients who have to be treated in the hospital / intensive care unit are significantly more relevant. ”Https://t.co/TDgujo59NC pic.twitter.com/mqxSlX61i8

Corona dark figure in an Icelandic study at 50 percent

A podcast also mentioned a case study from Iceland . This showed that only one percent of the Icelandic population was infected with the corona virus. Around half of these infected had no symptoms. However, Kekulé * considers this study to be of little value. There was a “relatively controlled introduction” of ski vacationers in Iceland. The outbreak was as local as in Heinsberg. In Germany, on the other hand, there are many herds spread all over Germany.

Read also: Scientist calculates corona development for Germany - her conclusion does not sound good *

* Merkur.de and tz.de are part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital editors network