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The effectiveness of mouthguards against coronavirus 2:10
(CNN) - Coronavirus containment orders worldwide should not be fully lifted until a vaccine for the disease is found, according to a study based on the China outbreak published in the medical journal The Lancet.
China's draconian restrictions on daily life appear to have halted the first wave of covid-19 in much of the country, but the researchers used mathematical models to show that the premature lifting of measures could trigger a second wave of infection.
Authorities ended the 76-day closure of Wuhan in Hubei province on Wednesday, when the city at the original epicenter of the coronavirus crisis emerges from the deadly outbreak that is now breaking out worldwide. However, some restrictions will remain, as officials are aware of the risk, and trains and tourist sites were packed across the country.
"While these control measures appear to have reduced the number of infections to very low levels, with no collective immunity to covid-19, cases could easily resurface as companies, factory operations, and schools gradually resume and increase the social mix, particularly given the increasing risk of cases imported from abroad, as covid-19 continues to spread globally, "said Professor Joseph T Wu of the University of Hong Kong, who co-led the research, in a press release Wednesday.
He warned that the rate of infection would increase unless governments ensured that restrictions were slowly lifted and transmission was closely monitored.
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“Although control policies such as physical estrangement and behavior change are likely to be maintained for some time, achieving a proactive balance between resuming economic activities and keeping the reproductive number below one is probably the best strategy. until effective vaccines are widely available, "said the professor.
The research could be critical as countries around the world, some of which have only had locks for a few weeks, are thinking of the best way to ease the restrictions on getting their economies moving again. Doing it wrong could lead to new outbreaks and new restrictions, according to the study, and could be catastrophic for health services and economies.
Austria said on Monday it would gradually reopen stores after Easter, one of several European countries preparing to loosen restrictions. In Germany, a group of economists, lawyers and medical experts recommend a gradual recovery of Europe's largest economy that would allow specific industries and workers to resume their activities while steps are taken to prevent the resurgence of the coronavirus.
A dozen academics wrote in that report, which was published last week by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research, that they don't expect there to be an effective vaccine or treatment for the coronavirus before 2021.
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The UK government is reviewing its containment order almost three weeks after it began, but London Mayor Sadiq Khan said yesterday that it "was not close" to easing the restrictions with the expected peak more than a week from distance.
Researchers in the British economy have suggested that the 4.2 million young people between the ages of 20 and 30 who do not live with their parents should be allowed to return to work first.
Andrew J. Oswald and Nattavudh Powdthavee of the University of Warwick said in a briefing paper that the idea would help alleviate the "severe damage" being done to the country's economy.
"Unless a vaccine is quickly discovered, it is unlikely that there will be a painless or safe course of action," the document said.
"The epidemiological and economic compensations will have to be faced. Elections at that juncture are likely to be difficult for politicians and citizens. "
They said the idea "would help restart prosperity before an extraordinary recession occurs; would lead to other social benefits; it would also create a reasonably small, but unfortunately not insignificant, additional risk to health in the country. ”
The effects of lifting a lock too early may affect some areas more than others. Further analysis in the Lancet report showed that the risk of death for those who tested positive for covid-19 varied substantially in different parts of China, depending on economic development and the availability of healthcare resources.
The death rate in Hubei was 5.91%, almost six times higher than outside the province, where it was 0.98%, according to the study.
"Even in the most prosperous and resource-rich megacities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, health care resources are limited and services will find it difficult to cope with a surge in demand," said lead author Professor Gabriel M Leung, from the University of Hong Kong, in the release statement accompanying the Lancet report.
"Our findings highlight the importance of ensuring that local health care systems have adequate staff and resources to minimize covid-related deaths."
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Strict restrictions on the movement of people and goods in China were introduced on January 23 after the new coronavirus emerged in Wuhan in December, dramatically affecting the economy and personal freedoms. Since then, they have been gradually relaxing in some Chinese provinces, with the gradual reopening of factories and offices.
The analysis of four cities and 10 provinces outside Hubei states that the measures should be gradually lifted or that the number of cases will progressively increase during the relaxation period.
Estimates also suggest that once the burden of increasing cases rises, simply adjusting the interventions again would not reduce the burden to its original level. This would require additional effort, likely resulting in greater health and economic effects.
"We are well aware that as economic activity in China increases in the coming weeks, local or imported infection could trigger a resurgence of transmission," added co-author Dr. Kathy Leung of the University of Hong Kong in the notice.
“Real-time monitoring of the effect of increased mobility and social mixing on the transmissibility of covid-19 could allow policymakers to adjust control measures to interrupt transmission and minimize the impact of a possible second wave of infections ”.
CNN's Simon Cullen contributed reporting.