Predictions of the US coronavirus they're changing. This is the reason

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Trump and the coronavirus: promises and realities 3:05

(CNN) - Things are still getting worse. The United States surpassed 16,000 coronavirus deaths on Thursday, after registering the highest number of deaths in a single day on Wednesday with 1,922. Since the outbreak began in the country, more than 450,000 cases have been diagnosed, and researchers say the peak has not yet come.

• READ: Confinement orders should not be lifted completely until coronavirus vaccine is found, according to new study

But the main model used by the White House, and almost all the others, was updated this Wednesday to show a significant decrease in the projected deaths in the United States by covid-19: the calculation was reduced to 60,415 people died by August compared to 82,000 that the model showed on Tuesday (a figure that in itself was already lower than previous projections).

What's going on?

Here's what CNN Health's Arman Azad reports:

Almost every day, new data on the path of the pandemic - both in the United States and around the world - has been included in the model, which has caused changes. And the downward adjustment suggests that social distancing may be working better than expected in some places.

The pain can last until August: the updated model assumes that social distancing measures, including the closure of schools and businesses, will remain in force until August. But other actions could replace them, Azad noted, such as bulk detection, contact tracing, and selective quarantines.

What it means for the coming months

CNN posed some key questions to Dr. Gregory Roth, one of the top physicians at the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Assessment (IHME), about the model the institution updated. The conversation, carried out through the Zoom platform and slightly edited for reading, is below:

CNN: The IHME model has lowered the calculations for the second time in two weeks. Why does that happen and what exactly does it mean?

GR: Our model is designed to be updated frequently in order to ensure that we are making the best use of all available data. This has been a rapidly evolving pandemic and as data sources change we want to include them in our forecasts as quickly as possible. Model updates reflect the most recent information available on the number of deaths from the source we are using, which is from Johns Hopkins University, as well as all available data on the relationship between deaths and hospitalizations, bed utilization in intensive care and the number of artificial respirators needed.

• LOOK: 100 facts in 100 days of coronavirus: this is how life has been changed by the pandemic

CNN: The model takes social distancing for granted. Does the fact that the numbers have dropped twice now show that there is more social distancing than expected or is it that social distancing itself is more effective than expected?

GR: The model has always assumed that social distancing has an impact on the number of deaths we expect to happen. It has also always been assumed that all states where social distancing policies are not yet mandatory will be so within one week from the date we run that model. Therefore, the model always forecasts based on the assumption that all states will align themselves with a broad and aggressive social distancing policy. However, we certainly take into account the fact that some states have implemented it long before others.

CNN: I think something that can be confusing for many people is that we see this decrease in the calculations, specifically in your model, but the death toll continues to increase alarmingly. Can you explain that dynamic and what should people pay attention to?

GR: So the changes in the model are driven by new data and improved methods, particularly around estimating how uncertain the forecasts can be. As we receive more data on covid-19 deaths, we expect our projections to adjust to follow those new trends. For places that are still at the beginning of the epidemic, where there are only a few data and a low number of deaths due to covid-19, the prognosis will be less certain and the range of future deaths will be greater.

CNN: What exactly could make the model change and increase the number of deaths? Would it be a relaxation of social distancing measures in certain areas?

GR: We have not yet seen a relaxation of social distancing anywhere in the United States. In the future, if social distancing were less strict, we would be concerned that the number of cases would increase again. In fact, one of the most important characteristics of social distancing is that we maintain it long enough to avoid recurring spikes in the disease. We know that even when cases and deaths are declining in some places, the virus is still in circulation. And given the fact that social distancing appears to be very successful, we are concerned that if it were reduced too soon, we would see a second outbreak or even additional outbreaks after that. Large changes in the model have been observed in places where there is a small amount of data. Therefore, we can expect that as more data is collected in places where we currently do not have many deaths counted, the quality of those forecasts will improve and may change.

CNN: Based on your model, can you give any idea about a chronology that makes sense to make social distancing measures more flexible, or is it too early to be able to speak in terms of a period like that?

GR: I think we still don't have enough data on this outbreak to necessarily know when it will be safe to reverse social distancing. I think we all follow very carefully the news from China that there are some places where certain aspects of the social distancing policies that have been implemented are beginning to reverse. But I think that a relatively small minority of the entire population will end up exposed and potentially develop immunity, that there will be a very large group of people without immunity after this first wave. This means that not only social distancing has an important role, but many of the traditional tools in the set of public health measures, such as surveillance, case identification, contact monitoring and all kinds of ways that can be use to try to make sure we find new cases as soon as they happen will be very important parts to make sure we don't see recurring outbreaks.

CNN: How much attention should people pay to models? Is this something you recommend that people follow closely?

GR: The forecast has a range that is very important to pay attention to. If you are a healthcare planner, you want to be as aware of the upper range of our forecast as of the median value. So there is a lot of uncertainty left in our forecasts and as a planner you need to be prepared for the possibility that the trend may in fact be at the high end of the range rather than just right in the middle. Therefore, first of all, I would highlight the fact that our forecast is designed for health care decision-makers and policy makers and governments so that they can try to use all available evidence in an up-to-date fashion. objective of making good decisions.

Can the US economy reopen in May?

Even though the pandemic is still on the rise, aides to President Donald Trump have begun intense discussions about a plan to reopen the U.S. economy in May, according to people familiar with the deliberations, setting out what some officials predict could be another showdown. among the president's health and economic advisers.

• READ: Trump to announce a second task force focused on economic recovery

Trump has begun aggressively promoting a possible change in the outbreak, even as health officials warn that it is too early to declare victory in the fight against the coronavirus. "CRUSHING THE CURVE!", Wrote the president on Twitter this Wednesday. Still, the extent to which Trump can declare the country "reopened" remains limited.

No optimism: A new CNN poll shows Americans are not optimistic. 6 in 10 respondents said the economy is in bad shape, an increase of 30 points from last month. That change is the biggest worsening of public perceptions of the economy in surveys dating back to 1997.

Another grim sign of these times: The crowds of people in Florida lined up to get paper applications for unemployment assistance this week, after the state's online and phone systems were inundated by an avalanche of residents. newly unemployed. Hundreds of people in South Florida waited for the forms on Tuesday, when the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity launched the option.

Some of Trump's advisers believe rural or smaller cities are on their way to reopening sooner and want to focus on how to better identify those areas. But others on the team, and Trump himself, seem to be looking for a more general announcement.

The coronavirus task force has evaluated benchmarks that could indicate a state is ready to ease restrictions on business and meetings, including a sustained 14-day decrease in the number of confirmed cases, normal hospital operations, and testing. widely available.

A central obstacle to the government remains the availability of widespread testing, which Trump health experts acknowledge continues to be a problem. Many within the White House fear that the fight to increase evidence may impede any reopening effort.