Coronavirus: Italians leave for three weeks of containment

It was March 10. Italy became the first European country to have imposed confinement on its entire population to stem the coronavirus pandemic. A month later, the country is far from the exit: Rome announced Friday and as expected its extension until May 3, despite the concern of employers for the economy.

It is "a difficult but necessary decision for which I assume full political responsibility," said Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte during a solemn address.

Doctors approve, business sticks out

At the start of a Easter weekend that they will be living behind closed doors in their homes, the 60 million Italians listened to the head of government announce to them the continuation of the measures imposed for a month: ban on rallies, drastic attacks on their freedom of movement, virtual shutdown of their economy.

For several days, Giuseppe Conte has been subject to double contradictory pressure. Doctors and scientists are calling on him not to leave the country too soon, at the risk of relaunching the pandemic when it has slowed down for ten days in the country which remains the most mourning in the world (19,000 dead), according to official balance sheets.

Conversely, the business community warns of the terrible damage that the third European economy risks. This dilemma is particularly strong for the North, the most affected by the Covid-19, with 80% of deaths, but which is also the economic lung of Italy (45% of GDP).

A reopening of schools in September?

If Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Veneto and Piedmont "do not leave in the short term, the country may permanently shut down its engine," warned this week employers officials (Confindustria) in these regions. They demanded "a roadmap for an orderly and safe reopening of the economic heart of the country".

The one drawn by Giuseppe Conte on Friday may not suit them. "I know that we are all impatient to leave" and "I hope we can do it after May 3 with caution and gradually," said the official, who did not detail this hypothetical recovery.

He did not for example mention the reopening of schools which, according to the media, would not be envisaged before September. A few rare sectors - bookstores, stationers, businesses for newborns and logging - may resume Tuesday, however.

The extent of the crisis remains to be determined

"We cannot afford a resumption of contagion" and "if we give up now, we risk [...] having to start from scratch," he warned.

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Considerable, the consequences of this prolonged shutdown are difficult to measure exactly. The rating agency Moody's currently forecasts a 2.7% decline in Italian GDP in 2020, while the American bank Goldman Sachs expects an abysmal fall of 11.6%. Confindustria expects a decline of 6%, provided, however, that the machine does restart in May.

“The latest IMF forecasts spoke of a 7% drop in GDP in 2020, very close to that of Germany (-6.8%), the two worst figures in Europe. These two countries have a very high specialization in the industrial sector, and are therefore the most affected, "Andrea Boitani, professor of macroeconomics at the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart in Milan, told reporters on Friday.