LE FIGARO. - The coronavirus is causing an unprecedented crisis, tourism is stopped in the spring and the summer season is uncertain. What are the prospects?
Didier ARINO. - On weekends in May, we can already draw a line under it. Pending announcements from the President of the Republic on Monday evening, the only hope for the French at this stage is the Ascension weekend, the last bridge of the month. Concerning tourism this summer, the blur is total and nothing is yet prepared, nor anticipated.
In July August, France received 17 million foreign tourists last year. We must certainly forget a large part of this flow. Those who cancel the least at the moment are the Dutch and the English, but their health situation is not yet as bad as ours. It could accelerate. In Germany, Angela Merkel has already advised against all travel before October… Added to this is that, in all cases, the transport capacities will be reduced. Airlines are now almost stationary. In the best of cases, they provide for traffic reduced by half to five months, including the summer period. And what measures will be taken on trains or ferries, taking into account distance, etc. ? This also applies to the 9 million French people who went abroad last summer. They will remain in France where, let us recall, national tourism already weighs 80% in many territories, with the exception of Ile-de-France and Paris, and the Côte d'Azur.
Overall, the French cancellation rate was still quite low 15 days ago, around 7%. However, very few people risk making a reservation for this summer. Last week, we recorded 3% of bookings compared to the figures of the previous year.
Read also: Easter: Berezina for French tourism
Will summer tourism be Franco-French in the event of deconfinement?
Necessarily, and above all because I think the French will have no choice! Some countries have closed their borders. If they do not reopen them all at the same time, the situation will be unmanageable, especially for airlines, which depend on stopovers. The domestic market and accessible by car will therefore be natural in a context of deconfinement, which will be timely for many territories offering large spaces including on their coast, which travelers will want.
This will be added to the desires already expressed before the crisis, in particular by the young generations: proximity, heritage, terroir ... Remember that most of French tourism is domestic and weighs more than 80% in many areas, especially in the west and in Occitania.
Read also: Roland Héguy: "France has never taken tourism seriously"
Assets rather than repayment, secured loans ... The tourism sector is supported by the government. Would the conditions for a possible restart be met if a window opens for the summer?
A lot of money has been put on the table, but above all in an economic prism - and necessary: avoid corporate bankruptcies. The assets making it possible to defer with reimbursable stays in response to a request from travel agencies and tour operators. But they mainly concern customers who travel abroad. The two questions posed by tourism stakeholders in France are: when can establishments reopen and under what conditions. No one can answer the "when", obviously, and the priority is health. But it is complicated not to have a deadline. The actors are forced to postpone the preparations by 15 days in 15 days, spend their day managing cancellations, requests for postponement ... In this context, how to prepare for the season or plan to hire seasonal workers? A holiday village, a campsite or a Club Med does not open in two days. We are in April, we need prospects because summer must start to be anticipated.
Beyond the issue of flow, my concern is focused on the type of offers that will be offered to the client. Again, this is unclear, given the health situation. How will restaurants do if customers have to be three feet apart? Will children's clubs have the right to open? Will it be necessary to respect a safety distance in a bleached swimming pool and besides, will it be authorized to bathe? Now, can we imagine a holiday club without a pool and without a restaurant? There are tests to be carried out upstream. We are in April but we must not wait too long if we want to prepare for the summer season.
Read also: Coronavirus, travel and cancellation insurance: are you really covered?
The French will want to leave this summer. They will not be gone in the spring and will have purchasing power because they will have spent little during confinement.
Didier arinoBeyond these modalities, which according to you remain to be specified, do you think that the French will have the desire and the means to leave this summer?
People will have been confined, will not have left in the spring ... In the short term, the purchasing power will be there because the French will have spent little. It should also be taken into account that the departure intentions as well as the French vacation budget were expressed upwards for 2020, of the order of + 7% compared to last year. And overall, the French will need friendliness, to see their loved ones ... I only have a doubt for seniors, who may be afraid and may be simply prohibited from traveling in summer.
In all cases, tourism stakeholders must imperatively inform travelers: they will have to be reassured about the implementation of health measures, the supply available at the destination, etc. There is no point in providing communication and a recovery plan that does not are not focused on basic needs and substance. We should also expect an important phenomenon concerning last minute bookings.
Beyond the summer, it also seems essential to stimulate the tourist season from the late season until All Saints' Day. Visiting sites are often closed during this period, and the supply is generally insufficient. This can be a catch-up opportunity for senior customers.
Finally, we must already think about the following tourist seasons. The destinations that have suffered, such as Spain, Morocco, Portugal… will want to relaunch. Again, this must be prepared.
Read also: French stranded abroad: "We are rejected by the locals, like plague victims"
If we add to this crisis the little environmental music, the desire for solidarity with producers, we are moving towards less artificial tourism, heritage tourism.
Didier arinoHow do you think this crisis will affect the way people think about travel?
All those who found themselves stranded abroad will necessarily be marked and cooled for a little while. These images also marked the French. The reaction will be to fall back to the most reassuring place, and we come back to the previous point: France.
If we add to this crisis the little environmental music, the desire for solidarity with the territories and the local actors, we are moving towards a less artificial tourism, a heritage tourism ... With the feeling that, after months of confinement , what seemed trivial will become exceptional.
To read also: In Dordogne, in the Cévennes or in Creuse, these sites near us where we would like to relax