Thematic visits
Written by: Kuang Yueting
2020-04-15 18:01
Last update date: 2020-04-15 18:01Under the impact of the new crown pneumonia, the economic prospects of Hong Kong are clouded. The Financial Secretary Chen Maobo wrote in late March that the global epidemic may last for only a year and a half before it can be alleviated. The Hong Kong economy is difficult to reproduce similar to the rapid rebound in SARS after a few months scene.
Tian Beijun (Tian Shao), Honorary Chairman of the Liberal Party and Chairman of Wantai Group, said in an exclusive interview with "Hong Kong 01" that he did not optimistic about Hong Kong's economic situation in the next half year to one year, and he also lamented that he has been doing business for decades, and has never seen this Bad situation. Tian Shao, who has extensive investment experience, kept saying that the current investment strategy will be capital preservation, a wait-and-see attitude, and it is expected that property prices will fall by 20% to 30%.
The epidemic has raged, and many countries such as Italy, Germany, and Spain have implemented measures to "close the city" to varying degrees, and the people must stay at home. (Profile picture)
The new crown pneumonia swept the world, many countries and cities have closed their cities. Tian Beijun believes that the epidemic in the United States, the United Kingdom and Europe will continue for a period of time. With the worsening of the world economy, even if Hong Kong controls the epidemic well, it will not help. All because Hong Kong is an export-oriented economy, Hong Kong's service industry is also dominated by export-oriented service industries. Trading partners such as Europe, the United States, Southeast Asia and other regions are deeply affected by the epidemic, and Hong Kong is not immune.
He predicts that Hong Kong's economic situation is not optimistic in the next six months to one year. After the outbreak, it is expected that the economy will not soar like SARS afterwards, but will slowly recover. "It's all over the world, but among the noises [thankfully] Hong Kong is the most convincing."
Investors are advised to be "cheap and not greedy"
The visit took place in the middle of last month, and it just hit the global stock market crash, which forced the central bank to cut interest rates. The economy is very limited. "Normally, the interest rate is reduced, it shows that the economy is not good." The Federal Reserve has reduced it to zero interest rates. The government thinks it's good to come forward and get a big sell-off! "Tian Beijun feels that the Fed's interest rate cuts have been cut too quickly, causing the market to worry that the axe has been exhausted. If the epidemic further spreads, the Fed may not save the market.
Tian Beijun, who is accustomed to the wind and waves, is pessimistic about the market situation and advises investors not to be too aggressive. "You have a cheap price, what do you want today? I will say that it is cheap and not greedy. It will be flat today. It may be flat in two months. ! "
[Interview with Ren Zhigang] The unprecedented "three earthquakes" in the current economic crisis are changing the global economic structure
[Interview] From home safety to crisis: An Renzhigang: Hong Kong will not be too bad!
Tian Beijun feels that the world economy is in recession, and most of Hong Kong ’s trading partners are also "unlucky." (Profile picture)
Hong Kong's stock market is expected to improve if the outbreak in the Mainland is controlled
Having said that, although Hong Kong ’s economic environment is worse than that of the Asian financial turmoil in 1997, the 2003 SARS and the 2008 financial tsunami, Tian Shao believes that there is still a dawn in the real economy, because the historical economic downturn has a huge impact, mainly affected by interest rates The high level, whether it is borrowing money to do business or mortgage, the income is not enough to repay bank interest, the current situation is different, the Federal Reserve has reduced the interest rate to zero, which is unprecedented practice, which helps reduce corporate debt burden.
Amidst the epidemic in Europe and the United States, Tian Beijun expects that these regions will not buy in large quantities in the future, which will lead to a significant reduction in the export orders from the mainland. "Domestic demand will start to return, but foreign demand will definitely return!" China's overall economic growth depends on exports Weak exports, coupled with factory shutdowns in the first quarter, it is estimated that China's economic growth this year cannot be maintained at five.
He believed that after the outbreak in the mainland was controlled, the factory gradually resumed work, and the people went out again, driving domestic demand. At that time, Hong Kong stocks are expected to improve.
Under the global outbreak of the epidemic, Tian Shao said that with the epidemic under control, China can rely on domestic sales to "do business", but the external demand "absolutely saves the return". It is expected that Europe and the United States will not buy in large quantities in the future. (Reuters)
Tian Shao's investment strategy is capital preservation
The stock market may finally improve, but what about the local property market? Tian Beijun feels that in a low-interest-rate environment, there is little chance for the Hong Kong property market to repeat the big-sales-style plunge, because real estate developers will not sell their properties in a "big sale" style, and the public will also worry about losing their jobs at any time, so they will not enter the market at market prices unless the owner discount Let 20% to 30% sell; therefore, it is expected that property prices will fall 20% to 30%. The market for luxury homes and shops will shrink, but he emphasizes that the risk of shops is the greatest. Even if they start to reduce the number of shops, buyers will still face the risk of "renting out" and tenants will not be able to pay rent at any time.
Tian Beijun's Wantai, who has always maintained a prudent development strategy, tends to retain more cash and only borrows 20 to 30 percent of loans from banks. Under the rapid cooling of the economy, it can be described as invincible. However, Tian Beijun revealed that the group will not participate in any large-scale land investment in the future, and will only consider fine land with a land price of 100 million to 200 million yuan. He explained that he is old and his investment strategy is capital preservation, and he adopts a wait-and-see attitude. "There is a danger, but I don't want this opportunity. I prefer to be stable and stable."
He said that if an enterprise is more aggressive and borrows money to do a certain business, it should have a chance to make a lot of money after the economy is "revived"; for enterprises that borrow more money, or even have financial difficulties, he recommends to keep it. If you can't keep it, try to cut the cable as much as possible.
In the global stock market, there was a crazy sell-off in March. Tian Beijun admitted that many wealthy people in Hong Kong have shrunk. It is estimated that the luxury housing market will shrink. (Photo by Luo Junhao)
[Interview] Hong Kong meets epidemic winds Liu Mingwei calls for optimism and preparation to capture recovery opportunities
Tian Beijun Hong Kong Economy
