04/23/2020 - 16:26
- Clarín.com
- international
Military scientist Isaac Ben-Israel, who currently serves as president of the Space Agency and the country's National Research and Development Council, launched a theory a few days ago that has already started to travel the world.
According to the Israeli expert, the spread of the coronavirus decreases to almost zero after 70 days. And he affirms that this happens regardless of any external aspects such as where it strikes, nor the measures taken by governments around the planet to stop the pandemic.
The study is April 16 and examines the development of COVID-19 during the first eight weeks in Israel. But at the same time it makes parallels with other countries, since its analysis shows that the pattern is the same in all cases. In this way, Ben-Israel seeks to determine if exponential growth has been recorded over the weeks among cases of new infections.
The Israeli scientist assures that the growth of new cases is not exponential.
To argue his position, he used as an example the data from Israel, where the increase in new daily patients peaked around day 41, reaching around 700 infected per day. "Since then it has started to decrease," he says.
It also indicates that at the start of the outbreak in his country the number of infected people doubled from two to four days. Today, this phenomenon is seen every 30 days and continues to decrease.
Ben Israel's study is based on the experience lived in his country, but comparing statistics with other places in the world.
"Another way to see the decline in the disease is to observe the new daily infections in relation to the total number of infections, that is, the percentage of new infections per day," says the scientist. He adds: "In the first four to five weeks since the disease was discovered in Israel, there was indeed an exponential increase in infections, but since then it has begun to moderate."
The study also shows that there are no great differences according to the policies adopted by the governments of each nation. In this sense, he used as examples the cases of Italy and Sweden. The first, the country most affected in Europe by the coronavirus, imposed a strict quarantine. The Nordic nation, meanwhile, did not apply any type of blockade. Despite these differences, research shows a similar propagation curve in both cases.
An image of the empty streets of Bergamo, where an iron quarantine is imposed on the inhabitants.
In Stockholm, thousands of people take to the streets with little respect for social distancing measures.
Lastly, Ben-Israel advises to continue to respect certain health security measures, such as the use of masks and the prohibition of mass meetings, and also believes in the importance of increasing the capacity of daily tests: “It is essential to eliminate the bottleneck that prevents the expansion of tests to 20,000-30,000 per day, and focus on the acquisition of medical swabs, test kits and reagents, "he said.