To avoid human contact, synonymous with the spread of the virus, the car could become the most appropriate mode of transportation from the start of the deconfinement, scheduled for May 11. Automobile revenge for some. A nightmare in perspective for others.
The Chinese example
In China, the first country to be hit hard by the Covid-19, the population tends to favor the private car at the expense of public transport. An Ipsos poll, published in mid-March, shortly before deconfinement, illustrated this distrust of the Chinese with regard to public transport, considered risky. While 56% took the bus or metro before the coronavirus crisis, this study suggested that this proportion would decrease by more than half (24%), after confinement. Even distrust vis-à-vis taxis and VTC, with usage intentions falling respectively from 21% to 15% and from 21% to 12%. Conversely, 66% of those questioned said they intended to give more priority to traveling by private car, twice as much (34%) as before the health crisis. Indeed, for several weeks, Chinese car traffic has been denser than last year at the same time.
A craze that seems to be confirmed in car sales. Tesla electric car registrations hit a record high in March, reports Bloomberg. At the start of April, Volkswagen expected to see auto sales quadruple in March in China.
Avoid promiscuity
Will it be the same in major French cities? " A priori in France too, people will be much more reluctant to get into public transport or to carpool, " anticipates Olivier Klein, researcher specializing in transport at the University of Lyon. " After May 11, there is an extremely high risk of the explosion of the private car, in contradiction with ecological requirements ", also estimates Gilles Savary, transport specialist and consultant at Euros / Agency.
For several reasons, the massive return of the individual car, especially in city centers, seems inevitable. First of all, the car makes it possible to avoid overcrowding which will be difficult to prevent in public transport. " We cannot confine the population and then overnight, tell them to 'crowd into public transport'. People are going to be much less likely to be promiscuous. Those who have a car will be tempted to use it. Autosolism (the fact of being alone in your car), will become an implicit health prescription , "says Gilles Savary. “ A reluctance for promiscuity in public transport already existed before, among the population. Today, it legitimizes itself with this health crisis ”, adds Olivier Klein.
Then, it's a safe bet that the precautions that will be taken in public transport (disinfection of buses and train and subway trains, obligation to wear masks, or filtering the flow of travelers), will deter some number of users. " With the constraints of social distancing that will weigh on public transportation, people will choose individual transportation ," projects Olivier Klein. Especially since from May 11, in Île-de-France for example, we can expect a still very limited supply of public transport, of the order of 50% of metros, trams, Transiliens and TER.
Read also: How the SNCF and RATP prepare for deconfinement
A scenario already experienced this winter in the Paris region during the strikes against the pension reform. Many have relied on carpooling, bicycles or scooters in shared access. " Bad picks there again!" Like public transport, these shared mobilities are today hit hard by this health crisis. People will also feel like they are taking risks, ”adds Olivier Klein. The car (with the individual bike and walking), again seems to be the most detailed mode of transport.
An opportunity for the automotive sector…
While today, a large part of the car fleet is stopped due to the confinement of the population, the sector is preparing for a gradual resumption of activity after May 11. " Even if, given the circumstances, it is difficult to rejoice, it is an opportunity for the automotive trades " , concedes Xavier Horent, delegate general of the CNPA, the National Council of the automotive professions , which represents 142,000 companies in the sector and 500,000 jobs in France. " We are considering measures to encourage people to buy cars in order to sell off dealer stocks," he adds . The revival of the sector will pass through there. Demand will have to be stimulated, while remaining in line with the environmental and climatic objectives that remain. Cars will still have to remain accessible to the general public. "
… But use of the car limited by new habits
The aftermath may indeed be complicated for many French people, more than 10 million of whom are currently on short-time work. “ Many people will lose their jobs. If economic activity is depressed, there will be mechanically less travel ”, underlines Yves Crozet, economist specialist in transport. In Île-de-France, where 5 million people commute to work by public transport every day, teleworking should be prolonged and thus slow down commuting.
Read also: Valérie Pécresse wants telework to be maintained "at least until the summer"
In addition, to avoid a wave of cars after confinement, provisional arrangements for traffic routes for the benefit of cycling and walking are being studied in several cities such as Paris, Lyon, Grenoble and Dijon. The sunny days may also more naturally encourage the use of the bicycle.
For several weeks, a good number of French people have also been limiting their trips as much as possible to go shopping. “ People are experimenting with their neighborhood traders. For some it is new. Others do it more diligently. After the deconfinement, we will perhaps move less by car to a supermarket and we will continue deliveries, ”anticipates Olivier Klein. Behaviors that could persist and reduce the use of cars in big cities.