Corona reduces energy consumption and CO2 emissions

An economy on the back burner due to the corona pandemic means less energy consumption, with oil consumers are already noticing the price effect. The decline in demand is also positive for the climate. The question is whether and how long the development will last.

Hanover / Berlin (dpa) - Production and traffic have been reduced to a minimum in many places in the Corona crisis - energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions have recently dropped noticeably.

This was announced by the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) in Hanover when it presented its new annual energy study on Wednesday. The slump in global demand was particularly significant for crude oil, the price of which had slipped sharply and had even turned negative in futures - that is, the providers paid buyers money for the purchase.

As a result of the oversupply of oil, CO2 emissions are also falling. However, it cannot yet be said whether the positive effect on the climate will continue: "It is not foreseeable whether this development will break the long-term trend of growing global energy demand," said BGR.

Up until the end of 2018 - until then the basic data of the analysis were sufficient - renewable energies continued to advance. In generation, wind, solar and bioenergy accounted for around 35 percent of the electricity mix. According to the BGR, regenerative carriers were "the most important domestic energy source". At 14 percent, the share of electricity consumption was significantly lower. This was also because a lot of electricity from coal and natural gas continues to be used.

"Due to the closure of the last two hard coal mines at the end of 2018, Germany will have to cover its needs completely from now on," explained the BGR, which carries out analyzes for the Federal Ministry of Economics on raw material dependency. Meanwhile, imports here are likely to decrease further; in 2018, hard coal already declined significantly by almost 10 percent. The Federal Republic, however, remains dependent on the global trade in raw materials: "Even for Germany, despite the high growth rates for renewables, an increase in the high dependency on imports of fossil fuels is foreseeable."

Overall, oil and gas, as well as hard coal and lignite, made up the largest share of so-called primary energy consumption in Germany at 79 percent in 2018 - i.e. consumption from the original sources after deducting losses from generation and transport. Geothermal energy still remains below its potential, there are only ten larger geothermal power plants. With regard to wind power, there are fears that the expansion needed to achieve the climate targets may come to a standstill.

Around the world, around 18 percent of primary energy consumption came from renewables in 2018, especially from biomass and hydropower. The lower proportion of wind and solar power is likely to increase in the foreseeable future: There is a "very high expansion" in global electricity generation.

The BGR referred to the crucial role of the emerging and developing countries. The economic giant China is increasingly focusing on the expansion of renewable energies. The People's Republic is "by far the leader in the expansion of renewable energies," said the co-author of the study, Michael Schauer. That applies above all to solar power. In Russia, on the other hand, the corona-related drop in oil and gas prices is currently ripping billions in the state budget.

Overall, it remains difficult "to balance economic development and increasing prosperity with climate protection," said the BGR. "The growing population worldwide and the increase in the general standard of living are likely to result in an increasing long-term energy requirement despite higher energy efficiency." India's energy requirements, expressed in hard coal units, rose by more than half from 2010 to 2018. And even in the EU, many countries remained dependent on fossil fuels despite a 4.4 percent drop in energy consumption.

The experts estimate that natural gas as a "bridge girder" can play an important role in the changeover. Its combustion releases less CO2 than other fossil fuels such as oil and coal. The switch to eco-energy is progressing in Europe, said Dieter Franke from BGR. "Their share of European energy consumption grew from 13 to 18 percent between 2010 and 2018."

But nuclear power also plays an important role internationally, regardless of the German exit. "There is still growing worldwide interest in the energetic use of nuclear fuels," reported the BGR. At the end of 2018, 55 new nuclear reactors were under construction. "In Asia, but also in the Middle East, the demand for uranium will continue to increase in the long term."