The government consults the social partners on Thursday on the delicate modalities of deconfinement which must begin on May 11, shortly after having learned of the extent of the damage caused by the coronavirus on economic activity in the first quarter. Edouard Philippe, the unions and the employers will try to know how to put the French back to work to revive the economy, without setting off a second outbreak of the epidemic, feared in hospitals.
The Prime Minister has already warned that "if the (epidemiological) indicators are not there, we will not define May 11" or "more strictly" . He also asked companies "insistently" to maintain teleworking as much as possible and to ensure that workers are equipped with masks if not.
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But in one way or another, for Bruno Le Maire, the Minister of the Economy, "it is necessary that a maximum of French people return to work" : he recalled that the government plans for this year a fall in GDP of 8% due to an economy devastated by the coronavirus and measures to contain the epidemic.
A few hours before the meeting in Matignon, the participants will have read the first estimate by INSEE of the contraction of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter. According to the Institute, the recovery "will take time" and the loss estimated at 6 points of GDP over the year for two months of confinement could in reality be "higher because very likely that the exit from confinement will not be accompanied by 'an immediate return to normal' , according to Julien Pouget, the head of his business department.
Thanks to its monthly surveys of households and businesses, INSEE estimated that each month of confinement could lead to a loss of 12 points of GDP over a quarter. The Banque de France has already assessed the contraction of GDP at around 6% over the first three months of the year, making France one of the first major world economies to enter into recession, after the decline in GDP already recorded at the end of 2019 It was the worst quarterly performance of the French economy since 1945.
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The commercial sector (excluding rents), which includes businesses including all those deemed non-essential have been closed since the start of containment, is halved. However, certain sectors are much more affected, such as the hotel and catering industry or the events industry. At the end of March, construction was also almost at a standstill, while the industry held up a little better.
From the beginning of June and after three weeks of gradual resumption of activity and educational establishments, the government will reduce the sail of short-time working which currently benefits 11.3 million French workers due to the coronavirus. They are a million more than last week to be in "partial activity" , another name for technical unemployment or partial unemployment, or more than one employee in the private sector.
But, after the deconfinement plan refined Tuesday by Edouard Philippe, the Minister of Labor, Muriel Pénicaud, said on Wednesday morning on France Inter that from the beginning of June, "the rate of State support" of the device would be "a little less important" . Currently, it allows the employee to be compensated up to 70% of gross salary, or 84% of net salary (100% for the minimum wage). It is supported 100% up to 4.5 times the minimum wage, against a flat-rate refund lower than the minimum wage previously.
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In terms of health, the number of heavy patients suffering from coronavirus in intensive care continues to drop for the third consecutive week. The decline recorded daily since April 9 was confirmed Wednesday with 180 fewer patients in the last 24 hours, according to the Directorate General of Health. The total toll of the epidemic now stands at 24,087 dead since March 1, including 427 recorded since Tuesday.