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[OPINION] Coronavirus: This could be Trump's worst mistake

2020-05-06T20:03:08.541Z


If you follow through on your plans to reduce your workforce on Memorial Day coronavirus, that decision will surely rank among the worst.


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Credit: MANDEL NGAN / AFP via Getty Images)

Editor's Note: Peter Bergen is a CNN National Security Analyst, Vice President of New America and Professor of Practice at Arizona State University. He is editor of the Coronavirus Daily Brief and author of the new book "Trump and His Generals: The Cost of Chaos". The opinions expressed here are his. Read more opinion at CNNe.com/opinion

(CNN) - The Trump administration has made several mistakes in dealing with the worst crisis since World War II; If he goes ahead with his plans to reduce his workforce on Memorial Day coronavirus, that decision will surely rank among the worst.

It is as if in 1942, three years before Germany was defeated, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt had said: "Gee, it is time to end this exhausting war against the Nazis."

The coronavirus task force has brought much-needed scientific and public health expertise to President Donald Trump, who generally attaches great importance to his own gut findings rather than the experts' findings. It is understandable that Trump wants to change the narrative from fighting the virus to opening up the economy, but biology will not be so easy to corner.

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Consider first the carnage that is yet to come caused by the virus. An internal model of the Trump administration suggests there could be 3,000 deaths per day in June. Put another way, in a couple of months from now we can see the equivalent cost of a September 11 attack every day in the United States. Michael Osterholm, a leading American infectious disease expert, estimates that there could be 800,000 deaths from covid-19 in the United States in the next 18 months. That's Osterholm's low-end estimate.

Also note that there are swarms of unanswered questions on how to deal with coronavirus, which will not go away despite the conclusion of the working group.

As has been widely observed, there is a paucity of evidence for the virus, despite the president's relentless claims to the contrary. According to the covid Tracking Project, more than 7 million tests have been performed, representing only about 2% of the American population.

To return to normal life, a Harvard study recommends 5 million tests per day in the United States in early June and 20 million tests per day in mid-summer. The United States is not even remotely close to that goal.

There is also great uncertainty about the efficacy of available antibody tests, which, if reliable, could at least theoretically allow those with coronavirus antibodies to return to the workplace and socialize normally.

Meanwhile, it is not at all clear what "immunity" to the coronavirus is actually conferred. Last month, the World Health Organization warned that antibody tests that show you've been exposed to the virus don't necessarily mean you can't re-infect yourself.

And there is widespread agreement among scientists that there will be a "second wave" of infections in the fall.

Director of the Trump Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Robert Redfield infuriated the president when he told the Washington Post last month that this second wave could "be even more difficult than the one we just went through." In Washington, a mistake is sometimes defined as telling the truth in public. When Redfield was summoned to the White House to clarify his "wrong date" in front of President Trump, Redfield reaffirmed himself and said that the second wave "was going to be more difficult and potentially complicated."

So what to do with the supposed success stories, like the efficient authoritarian city of Singapore? Singapore was introduced as a model for dealing with the coronavirus in March, but clusters of dormitory cases appeared for migrant workers last month, and Singapore now has the majority of cases in Southeast Asia.

Finally, while it is "on paper" there may be a vaccine available for January, as Dr. Deborah Birx, White House coronavirus response coordinator, told Fox News on Sunday, it is also possible "on paper" that Trump finally Obtain your fervent wish and be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for your diplomacy with North Korea.

Don't bet everything on any eventuality. England Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty publicly said last month that there is an "unbelievably small" chance of having an effective coronavirus vaccine in early 2021.

It is this type of numerous unsolved problems on how to deal with the coronavirus that the Trump administration needs is ongoing expert scientific advice on. Trump has said that Birx and others will continue to provide him with scientific guidance. But the formal dissolution of the coronavirus workforce indicates a lack of seriousness about the threat posed by covid-19. Do not do it.

coronavirus

Source: cnnespanol

All news articles on 2020-05-06

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