Towards the end of the Knesset's mandate, and when everyone is awaiting a High Court ruling, Israel's political future is in the fog.

The court's intervention to lead Israel to the polls or government? - All scenarios:  The Knesset's mandate to assemble the government expires tomorrow (Thursday) at 23:59. By law, if no Knesset member gets 61 signatures by then - the Knesset will disperse and Israel will run for a fourth election within a year and a half, this time amid the Corona crisis.

Second High Court hearing // Photo: GPO

Although the blue-white coalition agreement was reached over two weeks ago, the petitions filed with the High Court against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's tenure and the coalition agreement made the possibility of another election - which already did not exist - a reality. "Israel Today" from which are the "red lines" - the clauses in which intervention will bring Israeli citizens back to the ballot box. 

But there is the possibility that the High Court will not intervene even before the legislative phase, as hinted at during this week's discussions, and Benjamin Netanyahu will have to decide - should a government be established without knowing whether all its important unity clauses can exist? These are possible scenarios.

Unity Government

The High Court decides not to disqualify the most important laws for the Likud (at least not at this time), the laws that are supposed to regulate the unity government are passed in the first and third readings today in the Knesset legislative marathon (which begins at 16:00) - and paves the way for the establishment of the government. 

Netanyahu will then raise the 61 signatures he needs, receive the mandate from state president Reuben (Ruby) Rivlin - and together with Blue and White chairman Benny Gantz, they will establish the 35th Israeli government (and the fifth Netanyahu government). 

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However, Netanyahu will be given 14 days to form the government so that he can pull in the time and in the meantime "flirt" with the two additional scenarios - and perhaps improve the terms of the agreement for him.

The right-wing government is narrow

Another possibility is that Netanyahu receives 61 signatures, but the wave of petitions filed by the High Court against the laws that are enacted this time causes the Supreme Court to intervene on the same clauses and disqualify them. The Prime Minister decides to try to recruit two more MKs (assuming that Orly Levi-Abaxis remains with the right bloc Netanyahu has 59 votes - and to form a narrow right-wing government.

As was the case with the signing of the unity agreement, immediately the names of two members of the Derech Eretz faction - the members of Knesset Zvika Hauser and Yoaz Handel - rise immediately. However, the latter said in an interview with News 12 last night that "this is the only solution or a single election or government."

Fourth election

The High Court decides to intervene and disqualify the important Likud clauses, Netanyahu - whether before the mandate or during the 14 days after it was adopted - decides not to form a government, mainly because of the reliance on recent flattering polls and the success of the Corona fight.

At least for now, Netanyahu is in danger of the next election when he is not in danger, since unlike the last three elections, blue and white fell apart and existed only in a limited format, with no future and GOP. Likud MK MK Mickey Zohar hinted at this possibility in an interview with IDF waves. At the beginning of the week, when he said that if the Fourth Election scenario did materialize, the Likud would win them, and then "We will pass the overthrow and allow Benjamin Netanyahu to be prime minister."