After a little less than eight weeks of confinement, France is gradually emerging from its torpor. According to the fourth point of conjuncture of INSEE since mid-March, published this morning, " French economic activity would be down 33% compared to a normal situation ". A level slightly less marked than in recent weeks. Statisticians note that " a slight upturn in economic activity seems to be confirmed, in industry and in construction ".
Read also: The great plunge of the European economy
In detail, the recovery is seen in several sectors: this is particularly the case in industry, where the loss of activity now stands at –38% compared to –43% a month ago, and in the construction (-75% compared to –88% on April 9). The loss of activity is unevenly felt, with the food industry operating almost normal, when " coking-refining " is idling. The recovery can be seen in particular in rail freight activity, which now operates at 67% of normal compared to 63% between March 23 and April 23. Services remain at the same level, however, reporting a loss of activity blocked at around -36%.
In its first estimate dated March 26, the organization estimated the loss of economic activity at around 35% compared to a " normal " situation . However, it specified that this loss was more massive in certain sectors such as construction (-89%) or the non-food industry (-52%). On April 9, it confirmed this figure, adjusting it to 36% loss compared to a classic situation. Again, she noted contrasts: “ some services are almost at a standstill (accommodation and catering) just like certain industrial branches; conversely, the agrifood industries [...] operate at a level relatively close to normal, "she wrote. On April 23, she again used this estimate.
This time, a slight recovery seems to be confirmed. The slowdown should also be felt differently depending on the territory, " certain regions appear structurally more exposed than the national whole, like Corsica, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Île-de-France and of Provence-Alpes-Côte D'Azur ”. More specifically, the disparities will also be felt at the departmental level: for example, “ the economy of Haute-Garonne would suffer the full impact of the sharp decline in the industries of transport equipment, including aeronautics, and that of services merchants, while the other departments of Occitania are more spared, "notes INSEE.
Consumption still slows
Households remain cautious: " final consumption expenditure by households would be 32% lower " than normal, as of May 7, notes the institute. This figure is however slightly down compared to the last estimates, of the order of 35% at the end of March and " 33% " on April 23. The decline is particularly noticeable in certain areas, such as the automobile, clothing, accommodation, food and leisure services. Notable fact: " if fuel or hotel and restaurant expenses do not change, on the other hand, certain expenses for manufactured goods (household equipment, clothing and footwear) recover very gradually ", underlines the document.
Worried, the French seem to put aside, a situation which is not to the taste of the executive: " it is not savings that we need today for our economy, but investment ", declared Bruno Le Maire at the Assembly in mid-April, adding that consumers would probably have " wait- and- see behavior " and that it would therefore be necessary to " encourage demand ".
Overall, the final bill for confinement on activity remains difficult to quantify, depending on many factors such as its duration, the extent of the deconfinement or the behavior of companies and consumers. So far, INSEE had however forecast " a loss of around 3 points of annual GDP per month of confinement ". This time, the institution does not offer a reassessment of its estimate.