In Strasbourg and Brussels, their little nicknames run the corridors of the European institutions. The "Hanseatic League", say the most amiable; the "stingy club", ping their opponents. French diplomats call them "frugal": Sweden, Denmark, Austria and the Netherlands, determined to overturn the Franco-German recovery plan.
Presented on Monday May 18, the surprise agreement concluded between Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel aims to support the economy of the European Union (EU), hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic. On the table, 500 billion euros financed by a common debt, that is to say mutualized. With a daring first: authorize the European Commission to borrow on the markets on behalf of the EU and then transfer this money to the member states, giving priority to the "sectors and regions most affected".
Historic agreement for some ... catastrophic for the quartet, which did not hesitate to torpedo the Paris-Berlin initiative. "Nej", "Nee", "Nein" ... Since Monday, the four heads of government have been attacking "no". No question, they argue, to pay again for the “cicada countries” of the South who spend without counting. In their viewfinder (in particular), Italy and Spain, hard hit by the epidemic, and many other bad students in their eyes ... including France.
Commission to present own plan on Wednesday
The showdown can therefore begin between the four countries and the Franco-German axis. The first stage will be played Wednesday, May 27 in Brussels, when the European Commission will present its proposal for a European budget for the period 2021-2027 (on which the Twenty-Seven must agree unanimously). Ursula von der Leyen, the patron of the European executive, will present her own recovery plan on this occasion.
Will it take into account the Macron-Merkel version, or will it only be a synthesis without panache? “We would not want everything to start from scratch, or fall back on the blockages of frugal countries on the need for European budgetary solidarity. If we consider that the account is not there, we will say it immediately, ”warns a French government source.
For their part, the four announced on Wednesday that they would propose their own recovery plan: billions again, but in the form of loans (repayable by borrowing countries, therefore) and conditioned on the adoption of reforms, like this had been imposed ten years ago on Greece in full bankruptcy. "The less the Commission takes up the Franco-German proposal, the more these countries will feel strengthened. This is why we say to Ursula von der Leyen: Do not have your trembling hand , ”one says on the side of the Quai d'Orsay.
Don't "block everything"
The weeks of negotiations promise to be long, trying and uncertain ... as always when the unanimity of the Twenty-Seven is required. "They are going to run away for good, given the stakes, but the four will find it hard to stand forever in the way of the Franco-German steamroller", believes Jean-Dominique Giuliani, president of the Robert- Schuman, one of the main think tanks on Europe. “It will therefore be a matter of reassuring them on how the expenses will be managed. In this case, it is the Commission that will be at the helm to grant them to all, in an equitable manner. "
Among the four "stingy", Bernard Guetta, MEP elected in May 2019 on the pro-Macron list, does not see "Denmark and Sweden" scrapping until the end "against the agreement presented on Monday. In Austria, will the ultra-conservative Sebastian Kurz, in charge of the government, take the risk of shattering his fragile coalition with the environmentalists, favorable to the Macron-Merkel plan? There remains the Dutch bone, an enemy of public spending, especially when it travels from north to south. “The Netherlands sees itself as the new UK of the EU, against everything that looks like a more integrated Europe. Except that they do not have the weight of the British economy, judge Bernard Guetta. They will investigate the world to the end, but I do not believe, in the end, that they will take responsibility for blocking everything. ” "The Netherlands is aware that in the face of an extraordinary crisis, solidarity must prevail," analyzes the Dutch journalist Stefan de Vries. They are also pragmatic, know that to make money, you have to save the European economy. "
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On June 18, it will be up to the heads of state or government to decide, on the occasion of a European summit by videoconference or, if health conditions allow, "physically". Because nothing beats contact when the stakes are so high.
