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Corona crisis study raises hope: is the spread almost entirely due to a phenomenon? 

2020-05-31T19:54:30.455Z


How is the novel corona virus distributed around the world? Apparently quite unevenly, namely primarily via super spreaders. That could be a glimmer of hope.


How is the novel corona virus distributed around the world? Apparently quite unevenly, namely primarily via super spreaders. That could be a glimmer of hope.

  • In order to cope with the corona crisis *, the Sars-CoV-2 virus has to be completely decrypted.
  • The dispersion factor k, which provides information about the type of distribution, can help.
  • In this regard, a new study gives hope for the possibility of rapid containment.
  • Here you will find the basic facts about the corona virus * and the corona news from Germany. We also offer you the current number of cases in Germany on a map. The following recommendations for Corona protective measures * are currently available.

Munich - On Super spreaders nothing is first super - not at least in the colloquial sense of the word. Because this term includes sick people who infect numerous other people . In most cases, of course, unconsciously. The exact number is undefined, but there can be dozens. In the current corona pandemic , researchers are now assuming that a large part of the infections can be attributed to such superspreaders. Which would have its positive side.

Because that would mean that there are significantly fewer infection chains, making them easier to understand. Ultimately, this would make it easier to prevent an uncontrolled virus spread . Apparently, only ten percent of corona cases are currently responsible for 80 percent of the spread .

Superspreader in the corona crisis: Study takes on the dispersion factor k

This is suggested by the latest research results that deal with the  dispersion factor k . While the already more common R-value * indicates how many people are infected on average, k indicates the imbalance between the virus spreaders .

More specifically, the value, also known as the scattering parameter , is about the frequency with which an illness occurs. The following applies: k can never be greater than 1 , because in this case every sick person would infect the same number of people. Such as seasonal flu , which can be attributed to practically no superspreader events.

Superspreaders in the corona crisis: Many cases in Sars and Mers epidemics

The situation is different with earlier epidemics. A team of researchers from the University of California led by James Lloyd-Smith assigned the Sars epidemic in 2002/2003 a k-value of 0.16, which was 0.25 at  Mers 2012 . Both virus outbreaks were therefore due to a relatively large number of superspreaders. This is also why certain countries were caught by these epidemics far more often than others, while most of the world got away with it.

So what is the k-value for Sars-CoV-2 ? Of course, this will only be conclusively determined once the pandemic is over. However, according to the work of a group of researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, it could actually be around 0.1 . However, this study is a pre-publication , it has not yet been subjected to a "peer review", ie evaluated by independent experts.

Superspreaders in the corona crisis: Nine out of ten infected people may only be infected by one person

Nevertheless, the value would mean that nine out of ten infected people only infect one more person, but the tenth alone ten more , as the virologist Christian Drosten * demonstrated. Which would be largely responsible for spreading super spreaders.

There were enough examples: Ischgl is considered a hotspot for the whole of Europe, in Germany the North Rhine-Westphalian district of Heinsberg was initially declared a Corona focus as a result of a carnival event and later various slaughterhouses and a restaurant in the Lower Saxony district of Leer. Since it is now certain that the virus also spreads through aerosols that remain in the air for significantly longer than droplets, high numbers of infections due to singing evenings from choirs or church services are  not surprising .

Super spreader in the corona crisis: k-value may be higher than that of Sars and Mers

However, the k-value can still be used with caution . Various experts are more likely to assume that the novel virus is higher than Sars and Mers. This assumption coincides with the result of a preliminary study by a Chinese research team around Gabriel Leung from Hong Kong, according to which the dispersion factor would be 0.45. In other words: 20 cases are responsible for 80 percent of the infections.

This means that there are hardly any chances that the pandemic would evaporate without countermeasures. However, according to Drosten, it is possible to prevent further waves of infection. Then it is important to focus on so-called superspreading events and to react as quickly as possible.

Meanwhile, Drosten praises the German way in the Corona crisis, but also expresses fear. His colleague Hendrik Streeck makes a clear announcement regarding a second wave of infections.

* Merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen digital editorial network.

mg

Rubric list picture: © dpa / Joe Giddens

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2020-05-31

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