Political situation
Written by: Zheng Baosheng
2020-06-08 11:00
Last update date: 2020-06-08 11:00The series of disturbances caused by the fugitive offenders amendments broke out on June 9, 2019, which not only turned the political ecology of Hong Kong upside down, but also promoted the evolution of the global political situation.
On the first anniversary of the storm of revision, "Hong Kong 01" summarized the three major impacts of the incident on the world. These effects continue to this day, and there are even signs of deepening.
Hong Kong demonstrations spread to Eurasia
The successive demonstrations in the past year's revision storms are not the same as in the past. It can even be said that a new model has been formed. The superiority and inferiority of this model remains to be observed, but it has been imitated by demonstrators outside Hong Kong , It is clearly visible. This model includes demonstrators calling for gatherings and marches through the Internet. The Internet calling method derives a "no big platform" movement structure. There is no sponsoring group that can completely dominate the event. All matters are decided after deliberation by the protesters, and actions are proposed Are often unknown individuals in traditional political circles. Although the pan-popular traditional political party has participated, its role has been greatly weakened, and it has changed from a past sponsor to a participant.
In the past, demonstrations were dominated by point-to-point parades. As the event evolved, the demonstrators used the phrase "be water" of the international superstar Bruce Lee as the program of action, and carried out offensives in a real-time, wildcat-style, and running way, such as blocking airports. It can be said that from the point of demonstration means, the wind wave of the revision example radiated to the world outside the small island of 1,106 square kilometers.
On the eve of the 30th anniversary of the Czech Velvet Revolution, demonstrators attended the rally and asked the prime minister to step down. (Associated Press)
One of the topics of international politics in recent years is that the government has failed to solve the dilemma of the middle-class to grassroots people. There have been hundreds of thousands of people demonstrating from time to time. Take the Czech capital Prague as an example. Tens of thousands of citizens participated in the rally in April 2019. There were 120,000 people demonstrating in early June. As many as 250,000 people took to the streets on June 23 to ask the prime minister to step down. Synchronized demonstrations.
Hong Kong is an international metropolis, and Bruce Lee is also an international immortal superstar. The word "be water" quickly spread and became a reference target for demonstrators worldwide.
Using the communication software Lebanese WhatsApp to organize demonstrations
In the case of fierce demonstrations and conflicts of anti-revision laws, the phenomenon of demonstrators making extensive use of communication software soon appeared in other parts of the world. In October last year, the Lebanese government, which had fallen into economic crisis, planned to levy WhatsApp taxes, the people used WhatsApp to contact demonstrations, and national activities stalled. People gradually expanded from opposing taxation to opposing government corruption and demands for economic reforms. Even if the government announced the withdrawal of taxation, public complaints were unstoppable and demonstrations showed no signs of cooling. If you need support and medical treatment during the demonstration, people will also contact each other in the WhatsApp group, and the communication software has become an important tool for demonstrations.
After 13 days of demonstrations, Saad Hariri, then Lebanese Prime Minister, announced his resignation and promised to respond to public opinion as much as possible.
Demonstrations in Lebanon continued. After Prime Minister Hariri announced his resignation on October 29, the demonstrations have been reduced but not completely stopped. (Profile picture)
Social platforms spread fast Iraqi Facebook calls for protest
In addition to communication software, social platforms also play an important role in anti-fixing actions. Many people on both sides of the camp receive real-time information through Facebook, and discuss the political situation with others, becoming a tool for disseminating information.
In Iraq, after the end of the ISIS war, the government failed to improve people's livelihood, and even basic water and medical treatment could not be guaranteed. Since September last year, locals have called for demonstrations via Facebook to protest against government corruption and high unemployment.
However, the Iraqi government did not respond to the request. In October, the government cut off the Internet, banned the use of Facebook and WhatsApp, and suppressed it by force. Once the demonstrators were shot with live ammunition, about 400 people were killed and more than 8,000 were injured by the end of November.
Afterwards, the highest leader of the Shi’ites in Iraq supported the people’s right to demonstrate. The UN Secretary-General also expressed concern over the crackdown by force. At that time, Iraq’s Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi stepped down.
Approximately 500 demonstrators blocked the AP-7 motorway, which connects Catalonia with France, on the border of La Jonquera on November 11. The purpose is to make Spain understand that sitting down Talk is the only solution. (Reuters)
The Catalans refer to the Hong Kong people's struggle to block the airport traffic
The actions of the demonstrators in Hong Kong are undoubtedly the global reference object. One of Be water is to obstruct the traffic and make the city operate poorly. In August last year, Hong Kong demonstrators occupied the airport, cancelling a large number of flights. In October, demonstrators in Catalonia, Spain, "learned Hong Kong", surrounded Barcelona International Airport and paralyzed surrounding traffic.
The Catalans were dissatisfied that the Spanish Supreme Court sentenced nine separatist leaders to 9 to 13 years’ imprisonment on October 14, while taking demonstrations in the streets, referring to the political persecution of the Spanish government. A large number of demonstrators raided the main road to and from the airport that night, and entered and occupied the airport with the registration certificate.
When interviewed by the media, local demonstrators admitted that they had started to study the demonstration mode in Hong Kong since the end of September. A lecture was held on September 29 to introduce Hong Kong-style protest methods.
Indonesian interpreter port demonstration film imitates masked demonstration
Also in October last year, Indonesia also had a demonstration. At the time, Indonesia passed a new criminal law that made extramarital sex, unmarried cohabitation, and insulting the president illegal. Since September 30, locals have launched a series of demonstrations, a large number of demonstrators are students.
Indonesian students have also been "inspired" by demonstrations in Hong Kong. Some demonstrators told the media that someone had translated fragments of Hong Kong demonstrators' response to tear gas into Indonesian for reference by local demonstrators. Some students pointed out that the demonstrators mainly communicated through communication programs, and many people shared the demonstration information of Hong Kong, and imitated the Hong Kong people to mask the demonstration.
Demonstration in Indonesia: Demonstrations broke out in many places throughout the country, and there were conflicts between the police and the people (AP)
[Indonesia Student Movement] Criminal law students who live in cohabitation surround the anti-crime law of Congress: Do not hold back and withdraw
【Catalonia】Why people block roads and airports to understand Catalan independence dispute
Does the Lebanese roar at corruption just because WhatsApp collects taxes
Sino-US trade war expanded to political war
In August 2017, the United States investigated whether aluminum imports from China involved unfair trade, which started the Sino-US trade war. As the range of goods subject to tariffs is getting wider and wider, China will retaliate by imposing 25% tariffs on US goods in April 2018.
The Sino-US trade war can be divided into three stages. The first stage is a tariff war. At this stage, the United States imposes tariffs on steel, aluminum and other products imported from China, while China imposes tariffs on soybeans, chemicals, and automobiles imported from the United States in retaliation. The "war" between China and the United States to increase tariffs continues Until October 2018.
The focus of the early Sino-US trade war was on soybeans, and China once suspended imports of US soybeans. (Reuters)
In the second phase, starting from November 2018, the Sino-US delegation sent a delegation to discuss a solution. On December 1, a truce was announced and no new taxation measures will be introduced. After the two countries continued negotiations, the United States focused on intellectual property rights, referring to the theft of intellectual property rights by China and Chinese companies.
However, at the same time as the "truce" between the two countries, the Meng Wanzhou incident brought the third phase of Sino-US relations. During this period, although China and the United States made progress in trade, they involved ZTE and Huawei in violation of Iran sanctions, as well as The resulting allegations that China has distorted the market with subsidies have shifted the focus of the incident from tariffs to intellectual property rights and business practices. In May 2019, the United States imposed additional tariffs on Chinese goods.
After the 612 incident, the US Senator proposed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Bill
In June 2019, an anti-amendment incident broke out in Hong Kong, which put Sino-US relations into the fourth stage, and also the first time to step out of the commercial domain into the political realm.
On June 12, the 612 incident in Hong Kong, the police used force to disperse the demonstrators, which caused great concern to the outside world. On June 15, US Republican Senator Marco Rubio proposed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.
On September 17, 2019, Huang Zhifeng, who was questioned by the Hong Kong government about the tendency of Hong Kong independence, participated in a hearing on Hong Kong issues on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. (Reuters)
The "Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act" was proposed as early as the middle of 2014, but the response was cold. However, this time is very different from that in 2014. The cross-party parliamentarians of the US Senate and the House of Representatives have all promoted and persuaded party members to support the bill. On August 6, the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the Democratic Party, Nancy Pelosi, issued a statement promising that cross-party lawmakers would push the bill through after the resumption of Congress.
Wrestling between China and the United States is rapidly heating up Hong Kong is sandwiched between two giant ships
On September 8, Hong Kong demonstrators launched the "Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act Rally" in Chater Garden, Central, and petitioned the US Consulate in Hong Kong and Macau. On September 16, Rubio said that he had reached a consensus with US President Donald Trump and the bill should be passed without dispute. On September 17, Huang Zhifeng, secretary general of the Hong Kong Public Secretary, singer He Yunshi, and Zhang Kunyang, a representative of the junior college, attended the US Congressional hearing.
The "Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Bill" was unanimously passed in the House of Representatives on October 15, and unanimously passed in the Senate on November 19. After Trump signed it on November 27, it came into effect. The bill requires the US Secretary of State to submit a report to Congress each year to examine whether Hong Kong has sufficient autonomy to continue to grant special treatment, including an independent customs zone that is considered different from China.
This round of action by the United States has greatly touched the nerves of Beijing, and it has been judged that Hong Kong’s anti-revisionism is a storm. It is a move for the United States to contain China. The hands of Washington have raised the incident to the level of national security, which contributed to Beijing’s The National People's Congress reviewed and passed the "Hong Kong version of the National Security Law", and the Sino-US wrestling climbed to another peak.
US President Trump held a press conference at 2:50 a.m. on May 30, Hong Kong time, and announced the cancellation of Hong Kong on the grounds that China pushed the national security laws of the Hong Kong area and violated the Basic Law and the Sino-British Joint Declaration’s commitment to Hong Kong’s autonomy. Special status procedures, and will take measures to sanction officials who weaken Hong Kong's autonomy. But Trump only mentioned the "road map" and no "timetable."
Beijing still has a hard line. Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian warned that if the United States insists on harming China’s interests, China will definitely take all necessary countermeasures to deal with it, and advises the United States to "understand the situation and stop interfering in Hong Kong affairs and China's internal affairs." China and the United States are fighting hard. Hong Kong is like a flat boat, sandwiched between two giant ships. The situation is terrifying.
Australia is conducting a hearing on the Magnitsky Bill of Rights. (Reuters)
[Fugitive Offenders Regulations] Signing the Human Rights Bill Trump: Out of respect for President Xi, Chinese and Hong Kong people
The EU initiates the legislative process of the European version of the Magnitsky Act
[Hong Kong version of National Security Law] Rubio urges the US government to check and balance Beijing with the "Hong Kong Human Rights Law"
Kaohsiung Mayor Korea Yu was removed again after ripple effect in Taiwan elections
In the Nine-Heap election in 2018, the DPP lost to the KMT. (Photo by Hong Jiahui)
Hong Kong-Taiwan relations are close. China-Hong Kong relations often affect China-Taiwan relations and even influence Taiwan’s political situation. The anti-amendment movement originated from the case of Chen Tongjia. It was precisely Chen Tongjia's suspected murder of his girlfriend Pan Xiaoying in Taiwan. Therefore, the incident was also widely concerned in Taiwan.
2018 election DPP defeated South Korea Yu emerged
Since Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen took office in 2016, he has introduced many progressive policies, including amendments to the Labour Fundamental Law, pension reform, and same-sex marriage law. However, these bills were criticized by the Kuomintang and conservatives. In the 2018 "9 in 1" election, the Kuomintang swept away the decline of the presidential elections and won the elections in many regions. Among them, the DPP's stronghold and continuous ruling have reached 20. In Kaohsiung City in 1996, South Korea Yu defeated Chen Qimai of the DPP with more than 890,000 votes, causing Kaohsiung to "turn blue".
The ruling counties and cities of the DPP in this service have been greatly reduced from 13 seats to 6 seats, while the Kuomintang has increased from 6 to 15 seats. In addition to Kaohsiung City, it also captured Yilan County, Yunlin County and other DPPs for many years. Tsai Ing-wen also announced his resignation as party chairman.
On November 24, 2018, in the "Nine in One" election, the then KMT Mayor Kaohsiung candidate Korea Yu announced his victory on his own, delivered a victory speech on stage, and bowed deeply to the public. (Central News Agency)
The Kuomintang no prominent person South Korea Yu could reignite the party’s confidence in the presidential election
This election has made the new Kaohsiung Mayor Han Yu a focal point. In the "post-Ma Ying-jeou" era, the Kuomintang lacked people with the same political charm, and was once "lost." South Korea's Yu and the "overturn" in various places have led to the party's confidence in the presidential election.
South Korea Yu did not "deeply cultivate" in Kaohsiung before he was elected. However, he was born in the East Asian Institute of Taiwan National University of Political Science. He was familiar with the mass movement and used mass movement means to increase his support after the election. For example, his campaign slogan was "Sell things, people come in, Kaohsiung makes a fortune", but lacks specific policies. After taking office, he announced that he signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) of NT$5.3 billion in trade and agriculture. The outside world pointed out that MOU has no legal effect and is not a real order. It is suspected of boasting Haikou's "gu popularity".
The visit to Hong Kong becomes a turning point
The turning point of Korea Yu’s support from high to low was when he visited Hong Kong in March, in addition to meeting with Chief Executive Lin Zheng Yue’e, he entered the Liaison Office without prior notice and had dinner with Wang Zhimin, then director of the Liaison Office. Beforehand, he emphasized that the China-Hong Kong trip only talked about economy and did not involve politics, but he became the first Taiwan mayor to visit the Hong Kong Liaison Office. He was named "Chinese agent" by the opponents.
On the other hand, Tsai Ing-wen signed the "Taiwan Guarantee Law 2019" with the United States in 2019, and continued measures such as arms sales to Taiwan and national warships and other measures to strengthen military power are also supported in Taiwan.
Wang Zhimin (right) meets with South Korea Yu in the Central Liaison Office. (Website of the Liaison Office)
The Anti-Amendment Movement Receives Attention in Taiwan, South Korean Yu Answers Not Knowing
When the anti-revision movement broke out in Hong Kong, one of Hong Kong’s parade slogans was "Hong Kong today, Taiwan tomorrow", which caused Taiwanese to feel fear of the future. In response, Tsai Ing-wen reiterated that Taiwan will never accept "one country, two systems." Since then, Tsai Ing-wen's opinion polls in the presidential representative's primary election have picked up and won the party's nomination. At the same time, South Korea Yu was asked how to view the anti-revision processions in Hong Kong. In response, he said, "I don't know, I don't know." It became the target of local public opinion attacks.
In fact, on June 10, Lin Feifan, leader of Taiwan's "Sunflower Study Movement", and others gathered in Hong Kong's Taiwan Economic and Trade Office to support the Hong Kong demonstrations. Hong Kong-style "Lennon Walls" have appeared in institutions such as Taiwan University and neighboring areas, and Austrian aid demonstrators in Hong Kong. These Lennon Walls were once destroyed by the "Patriarchal Association". Whether the living figures of each party include Tsai Ing-wen, South Korea Yu, and Zhu Lilun, the primary candidate for the State Party’s presidential election, or Ke Wenzhe, mayor of Taipei City, Jin Ying has expressed his opposition to the implementation of "one country, two systems" in Taiwan.
Kaohsiung Mayor Han Yu was asked about his views on Hong Kong's "Anti-Amendment Parade" in an interview on the 9th and replied "I don't know." (Online picture)
Taiwan Pro-China Media Cold Treatment Contrasts with Social and Online Hot Negotiations
At the same time, Taiwan's pro-Chinese media's cold handling of Hong Kong's anti-amendment cases has created a great contrast with the online and social attention. According to the "BBC" observation, the "China Times" reported on June 9th Hong Kong march, shelved on June 10, and the same group of "Zhongtian News", there is no report on June 9, Qiu Jiayi, chief executive of the Taiwan Excellence News Foundation, bluntly stated that it is "incredible" and "completely contrary to the principles of journalism." On June 23, the people of Taiwan held a "Reject Red Media and Protect Taiwan Democracy" campaign to express their dissatisfaction with these media, pointing directly to these media and even affecting national security, and setting off a round of TV "turning table" campaign.
On July 1st, there was a conflict in the Legislative Council in Hong Kong. Some demonstrators later went to Taiwan to seek asylum and went to some local organizations for help. The founder of the Causeway Bay bookstore, Lin Rongji, decided to go to Taiwan in April after the fugitive offender regulations were revised and then reopened the bookstore in Taipei this April.
Lin Rongji disappeared in 2015 and later confirmed that he was detained while crossing the border in Shenzhen. He returned to Hong Kong in 2016 and went to Taiwan at the end of April this year because of worries about the revision of the Fugitive Offenders Regulations. (Profile picture/Central News Agency)
China increases pressure on Taiwan to boycott Golden Horse Awards
At a time when Taiwan’s society is generally concerned about the anti-revision laws in Hong Kong, China has put more pressure on Taiwan. Since August last year, “in view of the current cross-strait relations”, the suspension of the issuance of personal tourist visas for mainland Chinese residents to Taiwan and Chinese movies are not allowed to go to Taiwan. Participate in the Golden Horse Awards.
The Taiwan side made a "counterattack". On August 17, some Taiwan organizations responded to the "Sound of Solidarity with Hong Kong" campaign and organized the "Taiwanese Peer-Taiwan Concentric 817 Global Struggle Connection" operation to hold rallies in various places in Taiwan. Hong Kong's anti-revision laws have caused ripples in Taiwan.
"Sense of dying" became the keyword Tsai Ing-wen re-election
Under the soaring political temperature, the key word for Taiwan in the second half of 2019 was "a sense of national defeat". The public's sentiment of "protecting Taiwan against China" has increased. At the same time, the support of the DPP has risen greatly, and the support of the KMT has declined. With the close interaction between politics and society in China and Hong Kong over the past six months, the election of Tsai Ing-wen's high votes in Taiwan's presidential election held on January 11 this year is almost without suspense.
Tsai Ing-wen was elected with 8.17 million votes, far exceeding the record of 7.65 million votes set by Ma Ying-jeou in 2008, and the vote rate also reached 57.13%, the second highest in history. South Korea's Yu received only 5.52 million votes, with a 38.61% vote rate. The original elected hotspot ended in a big defeat. No wonder some people say that the turmoil in Hong Kong's anti-revision laws completely rewrote the political path of South Korea's Yu, and also rewritten the political trend of the entire Taiwan.
Tsai Ing-wen was elected in the 2020 Taiwan presidential election with 8.17 million votes. (Profile picture)
The referendum vote for South Korea reached 939,000, which exceeded the number of votes in 2018
But the defeat of South Korea Yu is still not over. After being elected as the mayor of Kaohsiung in 2018, the Kuomintang did not have the best people, and it was selected by South Korea Yu who was the most popular poll support at that time. South Korea Yu invested a lot of energy in the presidential election and even took leave to participate in the election. There are critics. Attacked him for "ignoring municipalities".
As a result, Kaohsiung City launched a referendum to remove Korea Yu. The voting result on June 6 this year was almost overwhelming. The number of votes supported was as high as 939,000 votes, which not only exceeded the threshold of 575,000 votes, but also exceeded the South Korean Yu during the presidential election. The number of votes in Kaohsiung City was 619,000, and it exceeded the number of votes for the mayoral election of South Korea Yu in 2018 of 892,000.
[Taiwan General Election] Tsai Ing-wen talks about winning elections: multiple reasons cannot be reduced to unconditional support from the people
[Taiwan General Election, Photo Gallery] Tsai Ing-wen won 8.17 million votes and defeated South Korea’s re-election
[Successful strike in Korea] Eventually agreed to remove nearly 940,000 votes more than the votes of South Korea’s elected mayor
Photo Gallery | The Mayor of South Korea's Yu has lost and gained: Han Fan collapsed and wept bitterly, the Korean people were excited and cheered
It has been a year since Hong Kong's revision of the law, but its global impact has not ended, and there are even signs of deepening. The Singapore Monetary Authority said on June 5 this year that since the middle of last year, a large amount of capital has flowed in from places such as Hong Kong. The local banking industry’s deposits from non-residents increased by 44% in April, reaching a record-breaking S$62.10 billion. Monthly increase. With the enactment of the "Hong Kong version of the National Security Law", the Sino-U.S. wrestling has intensified, and the global political and economic situation may have another round of shocks.
The first anniversary of the revision of the law │ 784 cases of requesting information from the police in the first three quarters of last year, the rejection rate was 66%
Fugitive ordinance