In the unprecedented and very uncertain context that is hitting the economy, the Banque de France has undertaken a forecasting exercise that is as impressive as it is perilous. The institution has indeed built a macroeconomic scenario that stretches until 2022. For 2020, forecasts are in line with those of the government, economists expecting a collapse of gross domestic product (GDP). Economic activity, deeply damaged by eight weeks of confinement, is expected to fall by 10.3% this year.
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While the peak of shock is now behind us, businesses are slowly starting to recover, the institution now notes. " Whereas a month ago we estimated the loss of GDP over a typical week of confinement in April at around - 27% compared to the pre-crisis level, our new estimate for a typical week of activity end of May is around - 17%, "write central bank economists. " The outlook for the coming months is improving but
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