In order to be responsible for relaxing the coronavirus restrictions, the number of reproductions must remain below 1 if possible. However, it has now been above this value for several days.
- The number of reproductions largely determines the course of the corona pandemic and easing decisions by politicians.
- Virologists have repeatedly stressed in the past that it should not rise above the critical value of 1 .
- The number has been above this mark for three days now - is a second wave of viruses on the horizon?
- Here you will find the basic facts about the corona virus * and the corona news from Germany. We also offer you the current number of cases in Germany on a map. The following recommendations for corona protection measures are currently available.
Berlin - reproductive numbers, new infections and the incidence of corona infections per 100,000 inhabitants - these are three of the most important indicators for the further course of the corona pandemic *. Experts, politicians and the general public are closely following the development of these figures - hardly surprising, since they largely determine the government's decisions about further easing from the lockdown .
Meanwhile, the researchers at the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) and experts like the Berlin virologist Christian Drosten * are primarily trying to educate as many people as possible about what the number of reproductions *, or R-value for short , actually indicates, why a value above 1 is a critical brand and why the number can sometimes be higher than 1 without having to immediately withdraw all new freedoms in favor of virus containment.
Coronavirus characteristic: The number of reproductions indicates how many people are infected in the infected on average
In short , the number of reproductions indicates how many people are infected with the pathogen Sars-CoV-2 on average *. This means: If the number of reproductions is 1, an infected person infects another person on average. The value 1 is therefore a critical brand for containing a pandemic. Because in order for the spread of the virus to be contained, it has to slow down. If the R value is less than 1, an infected person infects fewer than another person with the virus * on average and the number of new infections per day decreases. The scenario is completely different if the value is greater than 1: the number of new infections per day increases, the pandemic continues to spread and in the long term this could overload the capacities of the health system.
Therefore, at the beginning of the pandemic, virologists and politicians repeatedly and vehemently emphasized the importance of bringing the number of reproductions below the critical mark of 1 - and at this low level - through measures such as contact and exit restrictions * and compliance with hygiene and distance rules * Stabilize level.
Corona crisis not over yet: Reproduction figure above the critical mark three days in a row
At least in Germany, this goal has largely been achieved over the past few weeks. But the RKI numbers of the past few days are causing a stir: on Wednesday (June 10th) , the institute reported an R-value above 1 for the third day in a row . The number of reproductions was 1.05 on the previous Sunday, June 7th. The following Monday and Tuesday the value was 1.11 (data status 0:00 on the respective day). It should be noted that the reproductive value always shows the infection process about one and a half weeks beforehand . One of the reasons for this is that it can take up to two weeks for the first symptoms to become noticeable after being infected with the coronavirus *.
That the R value is now above one for the third day in a row is not a good sign with regard to a possible second virus wave, which experts have been warning about for weeks. However, the RKI also emphasized in the past that the number of reproductions is often subject to daily fluctuations that are of little importance in the long term. That is why, since mid-May, the institute has given a so-called 7-day R in addition to the daily R value, which is less subject to daily fluctuations because it relates to a longer period. It maps the infection process from eight to 16 days ago and, according to RKI estimates with data as of Tuesday, June 9 (0:00), was below the critical mark, namely 0.9 .
Experts such as virologist Christian Drosten strongly warn against a second wave of coronavirus. (Archive picture)
© dpa / Michael Kappeler
Coronavirus numbers show: Neither panic nor negligence is appropriate for protective measures
The current corona numbers therefore show: There is no reason to panic yet , but also no reason for negligence or a complete abandonment of the corona rules, as it recently appeared to many in Thuringia.
Anyone who would like to continue to find out about the daily developments in Corona in Germany, Europe and around the world can find the relevant news ticker on our news portal. The daily situation report on the Robert Koch Institute website also provides a quick and well-founded overview of the current figures.
* Merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital editors network.
cia with dpa material
