Virologist Christian Drosten also received harsh criticism for his lockdown recommendations. Also from colleagues. A new study now seems to prove him right.
- Virologist Christian Drosten gives a “Corona Virus Update” weekly in an NDR podcast .
- In the current podcast, Drosten explains, among other things, a new study by Imperial College London.
- The study calculated that without the lockdown in Germany, more than half a million people would have died in the first quarter of 2020.
- Here you will find the basic facts about the corona virus * and the corona news from Germany. We also offer you the current number of cases in Germany * on a map.
Berlin - Chief Virologist of the Charité in Berlin, Chrisitian Drosten , explains in his podcast with the NDR about the "Coronavirus Update" a new study that presents the consequences of the Coronavrius pandemic without lockdown measures . According to this, 570,000 lives could be saved in Germany alone by the beginning of May with non-pharmaceutical measures - i.e. restrictions without medical services. An almost absurdly high-appearing figure, which even exceeds the worldwide death toll reported so far. There are currently 421,948 deaths from corona (Johns Hopkins University, as of June 12, 2:50 p.m.). Drostenexplains in his podcast why these high death rates would probably never have happened - even without lockdown. And why the study should still be taken seriously.
Rust's NDR podcast "Coronavirus Update" on possible deaths - 570,000 in Germany?
"There's no glroy in prevention" - "There is no glory for prevention", Christian Drosten * had already said in an earlier broadcast of the NDR podcast, but he had repeatedly emphasized and defended the success of the measures. Not least against his colleague, the virologist Hendrik Streeck. The latter had recently declared the lockdown to be unnecessary. The new study by Imperial College London now seems to be in agreement with Drosten's prevention strategy, in which he had consistently warned the federal government about the infection and pleaded for severe restrictions and measures *.
What is special about the Imperial College London study is that it does not look at the infection, but at the death rate . This approach makes sense insofar as one has the clearest evidence of the deaths. "If someone has died, it has to be recorded and reported - and it is the same in all countries," said Drosten.
Corona virus: could there have been millions of deaths? Drosten explains new study in podcast
Different from the detection rate of coronavirus infections *. The confirmed cases differed widely in the countries, "depending on how well equipped the laboratory system is in such a country," explains the virologist in his NDR podcast. The reporting systems would be subject to very different standards even in Europe . "Testing is carried out in very different ways," says Drosten and even intensifies: "The comparisons based on tests are totally limping." Whereas the reporting and documentation of deaths in European countries is handled roughly the same way.
Virologist of the Berlin Charité, Chrstian Drosten
© AFP / TOBIAS BLACK
This was the basis for the London study. "What is then the basis again is the normal model on which the calculation of pandemics is based," said Drosten, "only you can now calculate back here." The scientists therefore asked the question "how much would have actually occurred to the deceased, if one had not taken non-pharmaceutical measures *. ”The result is extremely high numbers: According to this, twelve to 15 million people in 11 European countries would have been infected with the coronavirus * by May 4, 2020 . That is 3.2 to 4 percent of the total populations of these countries. A further 3.1 million people would have died in these eleven countries alone. According to the model projections in the study, 570,000 people were saved from death in Germany. For comparison: In Germany, 7000 deaths due to a coronavirus infection were reported in the comparison period .
Coronavirus: Christian Drosten speaks about more than half a million possible deaths in the NDR podcast
Drosten is obviously not astonished by the immense number of deaths in the model calculation, but he does restrict the result. "You have to think a little bit about which side you are looking at this study from," says the chief virologist of the Berlin Charité . The calculation for the different countries is based on a free and unhindered course of the pandemic.
The result is 570,000 deaths in Germany , 470,000 deaths in Spain, 500,000 in England, 720,000 in France and 670,000 more deaths as a result of the coronavirus pandemic *. "But of course these are hypothetical values that would certainly not have occurred in any of these countries," says Drosten. “Because you would have noticed that an infection epidemic was in circulation and that even without specific political decisions, people would have behaved much more carefully. It would just have raised fear. ”Because of this fear, people would have restricted themselves and stayed at home - even if no one had explained what was happening.
# COVID19 measures have already averted thousands of deaths in 11 European countries, a new @Imperial_JIDEA and @MRC_Outbreak coronavirus study shows https://t.co/VpKOHuvUVV
- Imperial College (@imperialcollege) March 30, 2020The figures from the new London study also depend on the population structure. That was included in the study. If the cases had only been calculated proportionally to the structure of the population, then most of the corona deaths would have been for Germany, the most populous country in Europe.
Coronavirus: Drosten virologist supported by London study - without lockdown, the consequences could be devastating
Christian Drosten feels confirmed by the study not only in view of the number of deaths : "But what is also interesting are other things that can be derived from this study: Using a very difficult calculation, based on the number of reported deceased calculates how the estimate of the parts of the population infected in the first coronavirus * wave turns out. “So the infection rates of the individual populations. The question of what percentage of people were infected in a country could thus be quite safe accessible - regardless of the actual tests, the high number of unreported cases not suggest reported cases.
The new London study also compared smaller European countries. There are large fluctuations: in Austria 0.7 percent of the population are infected, in Norway 0.4, in Denmark one percent - in Belgium, however, eight percent. "This is massive! And we know that Belgium had a very big breakout. But the country has a very small population. ”The reason for the infection rate is the time when lockdown measures were taken - sooner or later. Drosten also refers to England. There, experts would have calculated that half of the corona patients who died * might have survived if the lockdown had been decided a week earlier. In the UK, 41,364 people have died as a result of coronavirus infection (Johns Hopkins University, as of June 12, 1:54 p.m.).
Video: The number of coronavirus cases in Germany
Now one could say: There are larger fluctuations in smaller countries, Drosten restricts himself, just to add more. Because the London scientists also compared the coronavirus infection rates of the larger European countries. The percentage of infections in the population according to the study is 3.4 percent in France, 5.1 in England, 4.6 in Italy and 5.5 percent in Spain. “The infection rate in the large countries fluctuates between four and five percent in a corridor. It is very similar in the large European countries, which are also structured similarly, ”said Drosten. The similarly structured Germany is much better off here with an infection rate of just 0.8 percent. "Germany is the only large country in Europe that really stands out with over five times less infected people," said Drosten.
The study from London was controlled by independent studies. Therefore, one could assume it to be realistic, even if it is a modeling study.