Eduardo Paladini
06/21/2020 - 17:42
- Clarín.com
- Politics
The much-feared passage of the coronavirus through the suburbs entered a new phase. Not only does the increase in contagion remain firm in the 28 games that comprise it, but it is picking up speed: from June 13 to 20, in just one week, the number of registered cases rose by 49.2 % . From 11,198 to 16,708. And the deaths are already close to 400.
This acceleration consolidates another trend. After almost three months in which the City had higher numbers than the Province, it is now the district governed by Axel Kicillof that leads (nominally) the health table. In the same week that the GBA saw the curve rise 49%, in Capital the growth was lower: 29%. This explains, in part, why the Buenos Aires authorities are most concerned about adjusting the quarantine restrictions.
The specialists warn, anyway, for the need to make a finer reading of the statistics : to analyze the number of swabs that each district makes and the positivity of these tests. Given the limited number of kits - an unsolved problem after almost four months of a pandemic - the trend in Argentina is to monitor where the virus is presumed to be: those with symptoms or contagious contacts. This results in a high positivity, but leaves both the City and the Province - above all - in an awkward position: it goes behind the virus without being able to cut its upward curve . Only in the case of Villa 31, the administration of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta can show a successful model: a lot of testing, a lot of isolation and contagions to the downside.
With these AMBA numbers, the idea is to go back to phase 1 or at least harden the insulation? "Yes, that is our idea," they answered this Sunday near Kicillof to Clarín - To have time again to continue strengthening the health system . Tomorrow (Monday) meetings between both jurisdictions continue to continue working together. AMBA as one thing and with consensual decisions for what is to come ".
Strengthening the health system basically involves adding beds and personnel to attend to the most serious cases. Wasn't that why the first three months of quarantine were taken? Faced with this new wave of cases, it was clear that this "strengthening" would be insufficient if the trend continues.
Coronavirus
in the Conurbano
Confirmed cases between June 13 and 20
Tap to explore the data
Source: Clarín based on official PBA data Infographic: Clarín
Phase 1 isolation is the one that only provides for the movement of people linked to essential activities . It was the one that started, when mobility was only around 10% of the pre-pandemic era. After more than three months of quarantine, it would entail such a strong reversal (with the closing of shops and industries and the prohibition of recreational activities) that today it seems difficult to re-implement. At least homogeneously.
The alert for the rise in cases in the GBA parties has nuances. In percentage terms , the biggest shot came in Hurlingham ... 80% in a week, from 153 to 276. "increased because we testeando lot between three families had 60 contagions We vulnerable neighborhoods will be tested twice a week in other municipalities do not even test ", justify near the mayor Juan Zabaleta . "And the important thing - they complete - is that we have only one therapy bed occupied and without using the respirator."
The mayor of Hurlingham - critical of Kicillof's management for alleged "disorganization" to combat the pandemic - is among those who see a return to a stricter phase of isolation likely. The request is repeated by Kicillof's ministers. From Health to Social Development, by Andrés Larroque. The benchmark camper is one of those who visits the villas and heads the closing claim.
What is Coronavirus? How is it spread and what are its symptoms?
Watch the specialOn a sidewalk opposite Zabaleta is Néstor Grindetti , the leader of Juntos por el Cambio, who is in his fifth year at Lanús . This southern GBA municipality had a 60% rise in cases in the last week. From 647 to 1,035. It is one of the districts with the highest number of cases. Alone, it exceeds the sister republic of Uruguay in figures.
"The virus circulates everywhere. Sometimes they talk about the City, but here you have parties where 40% of the people live in villas. The isolation is there in the community, in the neighborhood, not inside the houses. And it is very difficult To control . From the outset, we passed with patrollers, with the Buenosairean, with a megaphone, and the people more or less guarded themselves. Now it is almost impossible, "admits a Lanús official. And he adds a fact that worries him: "In our case, the beds in the two public hospitals are at 100%."
Another district where cases increased in quantity and proportion is La Matanza . From 1,650 to 2,586, 56.7% more. If this mini province with about two million inhabitants were taken as a country, it would be halfway up the world table, above Paraguay, Croatia or Hong Kong in officially registered infections.
As soon as the first case of Covid in the country was confirmed, in early March, officials and health officials agreed that the most serious would come if the virus entered the marginal neighborhoods of the Conurbano with force. That fear is already happening . On the rise. And with an uncertain ending.
