Ecology, revival of the economy, unemployment, pensions, dependency, decentralization, Paris 2024 ... more than one hot file awaits the new head of government, Jean Castex, and his ministers.
The (146) small steps of ecology
The big evening in terms of ecology will wait. Despite the green wave in the municipal elections, Emmanuel Macron made it clear in the interview he gave to the "Parisian - Today in France" and to the regional press on Thursday: no question of putting it back on the carpet the "carbon tax" that had thrown yellow vests on the street. "It is not the priority of the debate," he said. Greening the policy of "reconstruction" that he intends to pursue, on the other hand, is "yes". And for that, he intends to put to music the 146 proposals of the Citizen's Convention for the climate of which he took care to expurgate the annoying subjects, in particular the lowering to 110 km / h of the speed on highway or the tax on the dividends.
An economic model that “consumes less”, less polluting, is what Emmanuel Macron wants. This should translate into the renovation of buildings which are thermal colanders, enhanced aid for the purchase of electric vehicles, a boost to regional train lines, the end of concrete floors and a possible moratorium on the new installation of large surfaces on the outskirts of cities.
No revolution therefore, but many small steps with the key 15 billion euros of investment and a possible use of the referendum in 2021 to adopt certain measures. It remains to be seen who will carry out these projects in the Castex government. After Nicolas Hulot's resounding departure two years ago, the chair of ecology remains a little empty at the Elysée as at Matignon. Wouldn't it take a tenor to sit there when the executive's environmental policy sometimes lacks direction?
Legislative elections: proportional relaunched?
" Everything is possible ! In small groups, the President of the Republic does not exclude the use of proportional representation in legislative elections. And why not… integral! Promised during his campaign, proportional representation experienced many vicissitudes during his five-year term (after being the Arlesian of that of François Hollande), as the reform of the institutions got bogged down. The Benalla affair killed her for the first time before the text returned in 2019 with a target of 20% of deputies elected by proportional representation. "This is what makes it possible to represent all political families without creating an ungovernable situation," he pleaded. But for lack of agreement with the boss of the Senate, Gérard Larcher, the project stumbled again.
However, the executive does not need a constitutional revision to change the voting system for legislative elections. A law is enough, but until then, the president wanted to include it in a more comprehensive reform. If he decides to keep only proportional, would remain a serious problem for his new government, the time, because a recent law prohibits any modification the year preceding the poll. Jean Castex should therefore go for it, but let us bet that his government will have many other priorities than making “breathe” parliamentary life. Especially since redrawing the electoral map is the promise of a puzzle and of being accused of tampering.
Decentralization without a big night
It was to symbolize "Macron 2", after the sequence of yellow vests. Decentralization will probably be delayed on the pediment of "Macron 3". The health crisis gave it a boost. "No major institutional reforms but concrete policies, on a case-by-case basis, of differentiation, association, clarification", insisted the head of state in his interview to regional pressure, announcing the launch "this summer of a great conference of territories. An organic draft law, with the possibility for local authorities to experiment with "specific" policies, has been sent to the Council of State. "The post-Covid justifies recognizing new prerogatives to the departments and especially to the regions, new means but also the responsibilities which go with it", considers a Macronian elected representative. Another track: the "resurrection" of the territorial adviser, launched under Sarkozy but buried by Hollande. Its function: to ensure better coordination of departmental and regional assemblies. No big upheaval so ...
Rebuilding the police of tomorrow
The next Minister of the Interior will have his work cut out for him. He will have to appease the protest around police practices while calming a large part of his troops, who felt let go by Christophe Castaner - they have multiplied the demonstrations recently. All this in a context of high-risk social return in terms of urban violence. Among the projects is the national scheme for maintaining order and intervention techniques after the suspension of the controversial strangulation.
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What about the white paper aimed at redefining the organization of the internal security forces, launched by Christophe Castaner and Laurent Nunez? According to our information, the Minister of the Interior was to present the document to the President of the Republic this Friday morning! It is not put away either, and will just change hands if Beauvau has new tenants.
Beyond a necessary but perilous reform of the police force divided between the general direction of the police, the Paris police headquarters and the general direction of the gendarmerie, the "first cop of France" will also have to find means to renew the police equipment. In terms of terrorism, the release from prison of prisoners convicted of terrorism or radicalized in detention will be a challenge for the years to come.
Juvenile justice in major mode
The main job of the Minister of Justice for the next government will be to set up the code of criminal justice for minors. This reform, presented in September 2019 to the Council of Ministers, aims to "clean up" the famous ordinance of 1945 on delinquent children. The text introduces criminal irresponsibility for children under the age of 13 and mainly provides for a break in the criminal trial, that is to say a period between the recognition of guilt and the sentencing. The code was due to take effect on October 1, but this could be delayed.
The future tenant of the Place Vendôme will also have to manage the consequences of the recent controversies on the functioning of the National Financial Prosecutor's Office (PNF) and restore the image of a justice whose independence is undermined. The magistrates are clamoring for reform of the statute of the prosecution but this is a constitutional overhaul in the hands of the Elysée, where it does not appear as a priority. The Keeper of the Seals will also have to pacify relations between the ministry and the lawyers. Finally, even if it seriously seized the machine, the Covid crisis made it possible to empty the prisons, which returned to a filling rate of 100% more in line with the requirements of a democratic state. The challenge will be to maintain this low water level. This is the stake of the very recent law of programming and reform for the justice which made evolve the law of the punishment.
The thorny hospital record
It is a hot topic that awaits the new Prime Minister: that of the hospital and the health system, severely tested during the epidemic of Covid-19. Emmanuel Macron reminded Thursday in his interview with the regional press that he wants "very strongly to upgrade the situations of medical and non-medical personnel", but despite the 6.8 billion euros in annual upgradings put on the table, none of the unions participating in the "Ségur de la Santé" is ready to sign an agreement on hospital salaries. A strike notice was even filed for July 9.
Emmanuel Macron is now counting on two fine experts in the sector to find a way out and allow him to announce measures in mid-July. First, its new Prime Minister, Jean Castex, who was from 2,005 to 2,006 director of hospitalization and organization of care (DHOS, now DGOS), and the latter's director of cabinet, just appointed , Nicolas Revel. Enarque with a socialist tendency, he directed the National Health Insurance Fund (Cnam) since 2014, after having managed social affairs in the cabinet of François Hollande, next to… Emmanuel Macron.
Reviving the economy and avoiding an explosion in youth unemployment
“Back to school will be difficult. We must prepare for it, "warned Emmanuel Macron in an interview given Thursday to" Parisian - Today in France "and to the regional press. “There are social plans, and there will be. The health crisis destroyed 5 points of national wealth and put entire sectors to a halt, "underlined the president, recalling that the government of Edouard Philippe had" started to act "in particular via" the aeronautical plan, which reduced the social plan that there is at Airbus today. "
But we will have to go "much further in the coming weeks" to avoid the 700,000 young people arriving on the job market in September being "a generation sacrificed". The Head of State undertook to "leave no young person without solution", thanks to "financial incentives for hiring and a set of measures. "
The new government led by Jean Castex is therefore going to work hard on a recovery plan which should be adopted at the end of August. New technologies, thermal renovation, including public buildings, as well as a reduction in production taxes for companies are some of the lines of thought in Bercy. It remains to be seen what the amount of the plan will be… which will be in the tens or even hundreds of billions of euros.
Restarting pension reform
The arbitration is clear. The explosive change in the retirement system, put on pause with confinement in mid-March, will not be thrown away. Also in the same interview with the regional press, Emmanuel Macron announced that he wanted to put back on track the creation of a universal pension system, the mother of his reforms, from the start of the new school year. The workers of "the second line: delivery men, cashiers" would be winners, he said. Nevertheless, he says he is ready for it to be “transformed” on certain points. "The reform cannot be resumed unchanged at the end of the crisis," he acknowledges.
Asked whether or not to maintain the pivotal age at 64, dear to his former Prime Minister, Edouard Philippe, Emmanuel Macron suggests that he is rather favorable to an extension of the contribution period, a parameter hitherto discarded . "The debate that we had known before this crisis around the number of years of contribution in life continues to arise," he says.
The new Prime Minister Jean Castex, a good connoisseur of social issues, will therefore have to pursue this reformist course and move quickly, even if the leaders of the CFDT and OF already replied on Friday that they did not wish to resume negotiations this summer, believing that "the priority must be employment".
Stop or the unemployment insurance reform?
Concerning employment and unemployment precisely, another sensitive file awaits the arbitration of Emmanuel Macron: the implementation of the second stage of the unemployment insurance reform, a red cloth for the unions. The entry into force of certain provisions - which will reduce the allowances for new unemployed people and particularly the most precarious - scheduled for April 1 has been postponed to September 1. Will this calendar be maintained? Unédic, the fund that manages the money for the unemployed, forecasts that France will destroy 900,000 jobs (full-time equivalents) at the end of 2020 and will have 630,000 unemployed workers receiving more compensation than a year ago…
A bill on old age by the end of the year
Finally, the President recalled that he was "creating a new branch of social protection, that of dependency". The first stone was indeed laid by the deputies during the recent vote of the law on the social debt, but the 2.4 billion euros which are allocated to it are very far from the needs. The new government will undoubtedly have in its roadmap the mission of building a bill, by the end of the year, with the social partners.
Bringing culture back to life
After the "Ségur de la Santé", calls for a "Valois of culture" have multiplied in the media, an idea recently taken up by around fifty deputies, mostly from the left, who signed a motion for a resolution calling for "states generals of culture ”and a“ great plan to revive art, culture and popular education ”.
Sector "durably impacted" by the Covid-19 crisis, as Emmanuel Macron said, the cultural world is suffering. And first of all, a feeling of abandonment on the part of a minister responsible, Franck Riester, whom many have deemed transparent. "There is no idea, no vision," lamented the actress Jeanne Balibar. Economically very impacted - a recent study estimates at 22.3 billion euros the losses of the cultural world in 2020 - the environment is in search of a second breath and seeks a standard bearer pugnacious and combative, present, passionate, in order to place high in the pile of government files those on rue de Valois. And reaffirm very strongly what the facts have seemed to contradict for a few months: Culture is an essential element of the life of the French.
Paris 2024, the great challenge of the Ministry of Sports
Although the postponement of the Tokyo Games to the summer of 2021 has upset the Olympic calendar, France is entering an important phase of preparation for its Olympic Games in 2024, with in particular a project review aimed at avoiding the surge in budget (6 , 8 billion euros). If the Minister of Sports sits on the organizing committee, the management of the file, for the State, is the responsibility of the interministerial delegate, who was until Friday noon… Jean Castex. A new Mr. or Mrs. JO should therefore be appointed.
Will the Ministry of Sports resist the reshuffle or will it be merged into a large ministry, like that of Education? The prospect of the Paris Games could offer him respite, but the new organization of French sport (with a now a national agency in which the ministry and the sports world share power) allows a guardian evolution. Especially since tricolor sport is changing. "The Covid crisis has shown that it has become essential," said the deputy (LREM) Belkhir Belhaddad. We must give people the opportunity to practice, with suitable supervision and local equipment, to multiply the links with the world of associations, education, business and health. We must now be as close as possible to the practitioners, by irrigating all the territories. The deputy also believes that "a plan to revive the associative world is necessary".
