Political situation
Written by: Lin Jian
2020-07-07 07:00
Last update date: 2020-07-07 07:00The Legislative Council elections were held in September this year. Democrats fought, and the only volume of the Hong Kong version of the National Security Act came into play. Hong Kong politics faced a new situation. The democratic camp’s activity space was narrowed. The attempt to win half of the seats (35+) in the elections also appeared thorny. Full road. Shen Xuhui, an international relations scholar who once helped democrats conceive the 35+ blueprint, was interviewed by "Hong Kong 01" to talk about his views on this year's election.
Shen Xuhui said that in the face of the new situation, even if there may be a large-scale DQ event in this election, from the primary election to the end of the formal election, the democratic faction can obtain the authorization of public opinion through the election process, continue to grow stronger, and lay the foundation for future changes. The final number of seats is not necessarily the focus.
He also specifically mentioned that the "Hope Alliance" led by Honorary Chairman of the Liberal Party Tian Beijun and advertised the middle line once said that he would "stand on the side of the Hong Kong people" in major and non-criminal, but expressed "helpless acceptance" of the national security laws that have doubts among the people. "No objections have been raised, and there is no real difference between them and other formed factions.
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Parliamentary structure cannot reflect social structure
In February this year, Shen Xuhui attended a private press conference and suggested that the democratic factions should attack the functional constituency elections to achieve the 35+ goal of the parliament. Shen Xuhui explained in an interview that the most basic reason for helping to conceive of the Democrats 35+ is to see that the current parliament is unable to represent public opinion for a long time and cannot function as a normal elected parliament.
He believes that a normal parliament has at least four functions, one of which is that each elected person has his mandate (to be authorized by the public) to promote them to do certain things; the second is legislative work; and the third is if some parliaments can form a government, then Policy can be directly promoted. Fourth, the distribution of the composition of the parliament and the interests represented behind it reflect the overall social structure.
However, Shen Xuhui pointed out that no matter whether Hong Kong is in the current situation or in the foreseeable future, the above-mentioned functions of the parliament are difficult to manifest. "If enough votes are passed," it does not represent the interests of most Hong Kong people. The most obvious example is that the Democrats have long been holding 60% of the people’s opinions, but they cannot reflect them in the Parliament. So in principle, he believes that the Democrats 35+ can help the Parliament restore some normal functions.
Shen Xuhui attended a private press conference in February this year to explain the impact of the "changing day" of the Legislative Council. (Profile picture/Photo by Lu Yiming)
Use "election" to get "authorization" in response to the new situation
A few months later, the local political situation changed drastically, the National Security Law came into effect, and the democratic faction was in danger of self-defense. They were blamed at any time and faced the danger of pre-election DQ; even if they were elected, they were always DQed for various reasons. In this way, the parliamentary 35+ has become more difficult to achieve, and the "scramble" situation after vetoing the budget is more difficult to achieve. Faced with the new situation, what new countermeasures should there be?
Shen Xuhui pointed out that Beijing’s involvement in the election is somewhat predictable, but even so, Hong Kong people need to be flexible because the election still retains a considerable role: "Many friends will have a contradiction. On the one hand, they will participate in all elections. However, on the other hand, I will also believe that Beijing is easy to reverse Taiwan, that is, DQ and overthrow. These two "believes" coexist. So how to reconsider (the route)? Everyone must think about this."
He believes that the greatest value of elections is not only in seats and political power, but also in obtaining more public opinion authorization through the election process. It is used in other places. Even in a non-democratic society, when representatives of public opinion enter the parliament, they will have their own effect. "A parliament, even if it went to the Soviets (Parliament) in the Soviet era, knowing that the system cannot be changed, those representatives will not have no public authorization. Every elected person, as long as he can use this authorization where he wants to use it most. , There will always be a function that can play a role at a critical time."
Demonstrate public opinion advantages in various fields
In the first half of the interview, Shen Xuhui expects that the local political situation will enter a period of chaos in the next two years. The governance model and political order will be reconstructed. The message is that Hong Kong people should not be afraid to build a local economy and store strength. He believes that obtaining public opinion authorization through the election process is one of the ways to store strength.
Shen Xuhui pointed out that it is an indisputable fact that at least 60% of the public opinion is dissatisfied with the government. Democrats can highlight the advantages of the majority of their public opinion through the process of primary elections, elections, and final voting. Whether in the area of work, professional fields, economic activities at home and abroad, or even in the process of helping Hong Kong people settle down, he believes that this kind of "authorization of public opinion" can demonstrate the rationality of democratic action and thus jointly protect the core of Hong Kong people. value.
"Elections are not unimportant, but become more important when the street front is more difficult. The most important function of elections at this moment is to reflect the real public opinion, to prove that the public opinion of the government is false, to create public opinion authorization, and to promote understanding in their respective fields-including At home and abroad, a new generation of leaders who make good use of public empowerment and use this power as much as possible to protect the cornerstones of different fields. The parliament belongs to Geographical Hong Kong, and public empowerment belongs to all Hong Kong people." Therefore, he suggested that the democrats should first focus on how to be elected Get the most total votes to reduce unnecessary internal friction.
Shen Xuhui believes that in the process of primary elections, elections, and final voting, the democrats can highlight the advantages of majority opinion and obtain authorization. (Profile picture)
Describe the situation in Hong Kong as "a protracted war"
Shen Xuhui said that he understands that the current actual environment makes many people who support democracy feel unsatisfactory, but some things must be done first: "Street, parliament, international, and the establishment of the system, want to use a single route In fact, there is no way out to promote change. But the world is not linear. If you do this today, you will have an effect tomorrow, and it will be like playing a video game (video game). Sometimes you do something, I don’t know when it will be. The effect is more often because different routes coexist, so doing it is "nothing bad" anyway. This is a protracted battle. You can’t see any panacea. You can go to the utopia of dreams in an instant, but does it mean this Can’t do it, can’t it?”
Some voices worry that if they continue to strengthen the strength of the democrats under the National Security Law, they will be regarded as "stepping on the line" and "subverting the regime", which will lead Beijing to further tighten its governance. Shen Xuhui responded that reflecting the authorization of public opinion is a fairly normal behavior: "Without a reason to reflect the authorization of public opinion, it will become a challenge to the regime. The regime must face the public opinion and must face up to the reality of at least 60% dissatisfaction with the regime. Changes because of the National Security Law." He also believes that if he is worried about causing greater oppression, he should not wait until today, and he cannot set limits on his own because of fear.
In response to claims in the community, Shen Xuhui was entrusted and funded by certain political forces to initiate political actions to help the democrats attack the functional constituency. He reiterated that politics is not his interest, and the accusation is not based on facts: "Participation in elections is very positive. (Positive) thing. In a civic-educated society, is it good for anyone to encourage others to stand for election?" He also pointed out that if someone suspects that he is entrusted by other political forces to promote certain actions, he should produce evidence ; No one should influence the agenda that they think is worth promoting because of some unfounded statements.
The Alliance of Hope led by Tian Beijun advertises the middle course. Shen Xuhui questioned that it was difficult to see the substantive difference between the alliance and other formed factions. (Profile picture)
Refers to the hope that the alliance is difficult to stand "not seeing the difference between them and other establishments"
On the other side, the Alliance of Hope, led by the Honorary Chairman of the Liberal Party, Tian Beijun, advertised the middle line, with the goal of achieving a key minority in this year’s legislative elections. Among them, it was rumored that Yuan Michang, the former policy chief of the New Democratic Party in War Island, interviewed "Hong Kong 01" in the middle of last month. He mentioned that on some important issues, such as 23 pieces of legislation, seeing that the people do not support it, they will definitely stand on the side of Hong Kong people. . However, Beijing soon announced that a national law should be enacted for Hong Kong in the form of a national law, which was unexpected in the political circles.
Shen Xuhui pointed out that in fact, after the National Security Act, it is doubtful whether the "intermediate route" still has room to play: "In the beginning, Mr. Tian (Bei Jun)'s definition of the Alliance of Hope, although they can all be counted as formed factions, but they will stand when they are right or wrong The Hong Kong people. Their track record was 23 in 2003. Mr. Tian exerted a key influence, and as a result, he proved that he would stand on the side of the Hong Kong people at a critical time." But Shen Xuhui said that this time he hopes that the alliance’s attitude will make People are more difficult to believe: "The National Security Law has been passed. To my understanding, their (Hope Alliance) positions are "helpless to accept." Moreover, this matter (National Security Law Legislation) has passed, and what is wrong after that Things? And if there is no clear position on this matter (national security law), how can they be interpreted as "institutions that will stand on the side of Hong Kong people"? At this turning point in Hong Kong, this is their (hope Alliance) issues to think about."
Shen Xuhui pointed out that the definition of faction can naturally have different divisions for everyone, but as far as the current situation in Hong Kong is concerned, there are always some relatively reasonable definitions. For example, important issues such as the National Security Law can be used for division. He believes that from the hope of the coalition's "helpless acceptance" of the National Security Law and the five major appeals of the popular opinion to support the democrats so far, but the coalition has not promised to fight (even in the most gentle way), it is really impossible to believe that they will On the Hong Kong people's side, it is difficult to distinguish between the alliance and other traditional establishments.
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