Eduardo Paladini
07/12/2020 - 17:35
- Clarín.com
- Politics
As with the coronavirus, it is not known if the peak is transiting, but surely the problem is on the rise. The reappearance of the political confrontation, which we Argentines summed up years ago as "the crack", had its HD photo on July 9, when thousands of Argentines took to the streets to question the Government and Alberto Fernández revived the concept of "haters serials. " But that climax, to which they mounted from Mauricio Macri to the current presidential spokesman, has been coming for long weeks. And a study has just put numbers to the phenomenon, which has grown since April and shows very different experiences depending on which side of the sidewalk you are on.
The national survey of 1,500 cases is from the Taquion consultancy . "It was not commissioned by any particular political actor. It is our monthly monitoring, which we distribute among subscribers and we made this summary for the press," the director of the firm, Sergio Doval , explained to Clarín . Some of his studies, like those of most pollsters, circulate around the Casa Rosada and / or reach the hands of the President.
To start with, the 39-page report presents six numbers as a summary:
- 50.8% of Argentines are already thinking about the day after quarantine . Today they are primarily concerned with development opportunities and access to work.
- 26.1% is in accordance with the actions of the government with cereal Vicentin . Only 53% agree among Alberto Fernandez voters.
- 30 points grew the will of the Argentines to save , if they had the ability to do so.
- 63.3% of those who work spent time in the last month learning how to use digital tools related to their work.
- 1 in 4 people in the active economy report that during the pandemic they lost or reduced their work . 3 out of 10 are afraid of losing it.
Then, these data are broken down and completed with a graph; at the end the polarization chapter appears. Taquion specifically states: "Regarding the political and social situation of the country facing the crack, for you ..." . Give six options and win the look that perceives a clear increase in confrontation. These are the main results:
1) "The crack is more alive than ever": 37.6%. In April, it barely represented 13.5%.
2) "The crack is growing": 25.4%. In April, 12.8%.
3) "The crack is not noticeable today but it will reappear": 21.1% . In April, 41.4%.
4) "The crack is not noticeable today and will disappear": 7.4% . In April, 15.5%.
5) "The crack is disappearing": 6.8% . In April, 13.1%.
6) "The crack disappeared": 1.6% . In April, 3.7%.
When discrimination by political affinity is made, those who live the phenomenon most latently are Macri voters : 50.4% believe that the crack "is more alive than ever" and 30%, that "it is growing". In contrast, among Fernández voters, these percentages drop to 28.6% and 20.7%, respectively. In any case, in both cases, even with differences, there are very few who believe that the polarization disappeared or is on the way to extinction.
Analysis and key
Sergio Doval, in charge of the study, explained in a chat with Clarín the keys to the new / old polarization:
- " The crack is generated by politics . And it already exceeds Cristina, Macri. In March, when the pandemic began, and Mario Negri said that Alberto Fernández was the 'commander in chief' and the President praised the governors, the people I was much calmer, the vision of the crack was much lower, people's expectations were 30 more positive points. "
- "Now, when the scenes of violence reappear , they immediately spill onto the population . And for example, people who are afraid, distrustful, begin to choose people like Patricia Bullrich: if you see the war coming, you want warriors. a vicious circle that is triggered directly from politics. The first stone is thrown by politics, which is also the one that can stop this polarization. "
- "Argentines are suspicious that this fight is over because they see that politics thinks of itself and feeds on this. But there is room for the level of confrontation to drop , because when the fight subsided, people lowered their level belligerence. "
" People close to Macrism are more active , especially in the networks, as last year was the case with those who had more similar ideas to Kirchnerism. Basically because they feel in a condition of less defense . Kirchnerists feel more represented by Alberto and a future that they share. The Macristas became more belligerent also based on the latest events. It is an endless round trip that generates a lot of noise. The last weeks were very strong, and that appears in the study. "
- "It is difficult to define a particular event that has enhanced the crack . Before judicial issues, before Vicentin, there was already a lot of conversation on the side of hard macrism."
- "Regarding responsibilities , the State undoubtedly has more visibility with the actions it carries out, but this cannot mean that responsibility can be removed from a certain intransigence of an opposition sector, with some of its leaders who feel comfortable in the opposition that that being government. As in a couple , the responsibility of the crack is 50 and 50 ".
