The wrestling between China and the United States and the "Hong Kong" issue in the eyes of the West

01 point of view

Written by: Review Editor Room

2020-07-16 17:10

On Tuesday (14th), US President Trump signed the "Hong Kong Autonomy Law" (hereinafter referred to as the "Autonomy Law") passed by Congress, and ordered the abolition of the "special treatment" granted by the United States to Hong Kong as a promotion to the Chinese government. Sanctions under the "National Security Act of Minato City". Judging from the results alone, Trump signed these sanctions as expected by all walks of life, strictly speaking nothing special. However, Hong Kong's rapid entry into the storm between China and the United States is inevitable for many Hong Kong people who are based in Hong Kong. Looking ahead, Hong Kong must straighten out its position in the world to ensure stability and prosperity.

U.S. policy toward Hong Kong is in a hurry

Whether it is the sanctions allowed by the "Autonomy Law" or the abolition of Hong Kong's special treatment and other measures, it has been digested by all circles, and the actual impact will not be great. Even if sanctions are required, the US government itself already has a lot of tools in hand. In fact, there is no need to establish a special law, so the "autonomy law" is more political than practical. Even if the United States wants to sanction the Chinese Communist Party or Hong Kong government officials, the lethality of these measures on the level of macro wrestling is really nothing. Whether it is China and the United States sanctioning each other’s officials recently, or whether it is rumored that Trump does not want to sanction the Politburo Standing Committee member Han Zheng and the Chief Executive Lin Zhengyue, etc., it is actually a diplomatic play. Everyone knows this. Will not change to the current situation.

Besides, special treatment for Hong Kong, including independent customs zones and visas, will always have a negative impact on the business environment of Hong Kong. Although the abolition of special treatment in Hong Kong has been touted by some Hong Kong protesters since last year as a threat to the central government, this news has long been digested and its impact on Hong Kong is limited. Many comments have already been analyzed and will not be repeated here.

This is not to say that Hong Kong can be completely optimistic. The U.S. approach to Hong Kong is in a hurry, because U.S. companies have huge interests in Hong Kong. If the United States suddenly provokes shocks, U.S. companies may not be able to avoid it. But as long as the United States continues to threaten Hong Kong, it will indeed have a negative impact on the long-term development of Hong Kong. If the tension between China and the United States continues, no one can guarantee whether the United States will throw more sanctions on Hong Kong in the future, which will create long-term instability. Instability is the biggest enemy of business. If companies are concerned about the US’s possible “sanctions” in the future, they may leave Hong Kong for risk management on their own. This is consistent with the strategic logic of using uncertain tariff policies in the United States to psychologically force companies to leave China. Therefore, what really threatens Hong Kong's development is not the current sanctions, but the tense instability created by the United States for a long time.

Why does the National Security Law disturb the West

Hong Kong has become the main battlefield for Chinese and Western rivalries, largely because for many Westerners, changes in Hong Kong are unacceptable for them. Even if many countries did not impose severe sanctions on China or Hong Kong in consideration of their interests, it is difficult to deny that Western countries have reacted greatly to the passage of the "Hong Kong National Security Law", even reaching the level of anxiety. This is an important "defeated battle" eaten by Western institutional civilization since the "final conclusion of history" became popular in the 1990s. Over the past 30 years, Western countries have been exporting systems headed by the United States. Success has led many countries to learn from Western political systems. Even if not all of them succeed, there are few failures like Hong Kong.

From the perspective of Western countries, they have been operating in Hong Kong for a long time, but the passage of the "National Security Act of the Port Area" undoubtedly declares that Hong Kong cannot continue to be the "forbidden area that China dare not touch" in the imagination of Western countries. It is rare that a region that has long been regarded as a Western camp has "completely turned back" to China. Hong Kong will change from "the bridgehead of the western world facing China" to "the bridgehead of China facing the world." From a Western perspective, Hong Kong's "missing" brought shock and also brought deep anxiety that Western countries are anxious that the Western system may be ebb. This is why many conservative politicians in Western countries feel that they must "do something", because ignoring Hong Kong is equivalent to the Western world's voluntary recognition that the system loses its universal significance.

Hong Kong is "Hong Kong of China"

It is certain that the future development of Hong Kong will inevitably revolve between China and the United States, as well as the vortex of Chinese and Western forces. In this era of great changes, Hong Kong also needs to consider its own position, otherwise it will be difficult to maintain Hong Kong’s stability.

In the past, many Hong Kong people regarded Hong Kong as a "worldwide" independent individual, and even part of the "Western camp." It is true that Hong Kong during the colonial period was undoubtedly a bridgehead where the Western camp was placed next to China. From 1997 to before the Sino-American wrestling became fierce, Hong Kong's status did not seem to have changed much. As a result, many people, including Western countries, still believed that Hong Kong was still Hong Kong in the past. But recent developments have shown that this idea is very unrealistic.

Hong Kong is of course an international city, but an international city does not mean that it is a neutral country like Switzerland. What's more, this so-called neutral Switzerland had to cooperate with Germany during World War II. As an entity part of the People’s Republic of China, Hong Kong has little room to choose camps, nor can it change reality by shouting a few slogans to fight. Hong Kong people must face the fact that Hong Kong and the mainland of China have a common affiliation. In the words of the first Chief Executive Tung Chee Hwa, it is "old-fashioned". In the future when Sino-US wrestling is becoming more intense, the prosperity and stability of Hong Kong can only be based on the development and stability of mainland China. The best result for Hong Kong is to continue to be China's special economic zone, retain its own institutional culture under the framework of "one country, two systems", and at the same time serve as a hub for China's mainland and international contacts.

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