The third wave of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is fierce, 3 data changes, do you know how severe the epidemic is

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Written by: Deng Liumei and Li Xingran

2020-07-21 12:00

The new crown pneumonia continues to raging, with more than 100 local confirmed cases, a record high in a single day. Experts warned that if the situation continues, the government may issue a lockdown (or stay-at-home order). The third wave of the epidemic is fierce. How much more serious is this one than the two waves at the beginning of the year? In other words, look at the following three major data changes, including the number of confirmed cases, the number of cases of unknown origin, and the age distribution of confirmed cases, to understand the latest development of the epidemic, and be prepared to fight the "epidemic"!

Yuan Guoyong, chair professor of the Department of Microbiology at the University of Hong Kong, admitted that if the epidemic continues, it will not rule out the implementation of the family order. (Profile picture / Photo by Huang Baoying)

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1. Sudden increase in the number of confirmed diagnoses

A local outbreak occurred in Hong Kong in March and April, resulting in multiple groups of infections, and the number of confirmed cases in a single day reached 65. This made the government eager to introduce anti-epidemic measures such as the "Restriction Order". As of the beginning of May, the epidemic gradually eased, and no local confirmed cases were recorded for many days. Different measures introduced in response to the epidemic were gradually relaxed. However, as of the beginning of this month, a 54-year-old man who lives in Pingshi Village and works as a chef of "Binji Congee and Noodles" The diagnosis has kicked off a new wave of epidemics.

After the emergence of the Bin Kee group, confirmed cases continued to appear in many districts, and the number of confirmed cases continued to rise sharply, recording double digits. The previous day even broke the record, and the number of confirmed cases increased sharply within 8 hours, and the number at midnight today has fallen even though , 73 people have been diagnosed, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases has surpassed SARS, reaching 1959. In this regard, Professor Yuan Guoyong of the Department of Microbiology of the University of Hong Kong pointed out that the number of confirmed cases has risen exponentially, reflecting that the citizens "underestimate the enemy" and that some people have lost the anti-epidemic panic and have not "winning a battle" as they did in February to March.

Local confirmed number record

2. Increasing number of cases of unknown origin

Different from the first and second wave outbreaks, the third wave showed signs of community outbreaks, with multiple infection groups and cases of unknown origin. There were multiple confirmed cases in housing estates, and multiple confirmed cases were also confirmed cases The situation of close contacts is hard to prevent. In addition, citizens have become accustomed to the slowing down of the epidemic since May, and they have suffered fatigue from the epidemic. Even if the government immediately reintroduced the "increased hot" version of the restriction order, it still failed to contain the epidemic.

Record of local confirmed numbers (local cases)

As can be seen from the above figure, the number of local cases (cases of unknown origin) in the third wave of the epidemic has significantly exceeded the previous two waves. The number of local cases in the past two waves has not exceeded double digits, but from the 12th, except after the 15th, The number of local cases exceeds double digits, and even continues to rise rapidly. The epidemic is worrying.

Compared with Macau, which has a smaller population, the only confirmed case recorded since April occurred in the middle of last month. The recent community outbreak in Hong Kong has become more serious. He Boliang, director of the Infection and Infectious Diseases Center of the University of Hong Kong, pointed out that due to the incubation period of the virus, the confirmed cases were mainly infected before the "spray" measures. He described the situation as more severe than originally estimated and warned that "groups will burn serial ships." "It's breaking out" to remind the public "Don't plan to see the top numbers."

Comparison of the number of confirmed cases in Hong Kong and Macau

Xu Shuchang emphasized that although the current mortality rate of new coronary pneumonia in Hong Kong is 0.7%, which is lower than the 17% of SARS, there have been group outbreaks in residential homes for the elderly recently, and many elderly people have also contracted the virus from the community. Will rise. (Information Picture/Photo by Lu Yiming)

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3. There are more young people diagnosed than the elderly

Many experts have earlier reminded that people with low physical resistance such as the elderly and young children are at high risk of contracting new coronary pneumonia. However, among the currently diagnosed people, the number of young people is recorded as more than old friends. More social contacts are related. According to data from the Center for Health Protection, among the confirmed cases in 1959, patients under 50 accounted for 67%, among which patients aged 31 to 40 accounted for the most, nearly 20%.

According to the analysis by Xu Shuchang, an expert consultant of the Hong Kong Government’s Anti-epidemic Steering Committee and Chair Professor of the Department of Respiratory System at CUHK, the first two waves of outbreaks were dominated by young international students, with an average of 19 to 21 days in hospital, while the current epidemic is dominated by the elderly, and the situation is more complicated It is expected that the hospital stay will be longer.

Xu Shuchang also pointed out that if there are three-digit confirmed cases for a week, the public medical system will face a crisis of "fullness". In this case, if a large number of citizens insist on going out, the epidemic situation will continue to be severe, and a "foot ban" may be required. Yuan Guoyong also pointed out that if the epidemic continues to increase exponentially after 7 to 14 days after the introduction of the "increasing spicy" epidemic prevention measures, the Hong Kong government "may really have to consider the lockdown (home order)."

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