Christian Saint-Etienne is Professor of the Chair of Economics at the National Conservatory of Arts and Crafts.
Faced with the economic crisis of unprecedented magnitude caused by the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic, Europe has been able to implement emergency measures but it is missing the essential: the north-south separations and east-west within the Union and the increasingly rapid erosion of its weight in the world.
European economic policies have been able to impress by the amounts announced and by responding with considerable measures of short-time working and bank loans guaranteed by the States.
Several massive programs have been set up, in addition to “Quantitative Easing” (QE) or the repurchase of bonds issued in particular by the States since March 2015. Then, from March 18, 2020, the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) of 750 billion euros came to complete the QE. This program was increased from 600 billion euros on June 4 to 1350 billion euros until the end of June 2021 at least.
Europe is not having a Hamiltonian moment for three reasons.In terms of fiscal policy, the 27 European Union economy and finance ministers agreed on April 9, 2020 for a plan of 540 billion euros starting from a base of 100 billion euros. '' euros for a partial unemployment guarantee fund (SURE), of 200 billion euros of commitments gradually put in place by the European Investment Bank (EIB) to lend to companies and 240 billion euros mobilized by the ESM (European Stability Mechanism). Then, the European Union reached an agreement on July 21, 2020 on a recovery plan of 750 billion euros composed of 390 billion euros in grants and 360 billion euros in loans to help countries and sectors. in difficulty.
One could conclude from all these initiatives that Europe is thus experiencing a Hamiltonian moment. Alexander Hamilton (1757-1804) was the first Secretary of the Treasury of the United States. Constitutional and financial lawyer, disciple of Hobbes and Montesquieu, he was influential during the American Constitutional Convention of 1787. In 1790, at the instigation of Hamilton, the federal government took over the debts contracted by the American states whose finances public funds were weighed down by the debts accumulated during the war of independence (1775 - 1783).
But if we must not neglect the advance of the 27 leading to the first European debt issue in the face of the coronavirus pandemic, Europe is not living a Hamiltonian moment for three reasons:
Initially, the euro zone is more than ever divided between the North, which has retained a powerful industry and accumulates external surpluses, and a South in the process of deindustrialisation of which France is the archetype. The average standard of living of the countries of the South (France, Italy, Spain and Portugal) fell by more than 15% compared to Germany from 2010 to 2020. The euro, which was announced as an instrument of convergence in Europe, turned out to be a lever of divergence in performance between the north and the south of the zone in the absence of the three conditions for the success of a common currency in a monetary zone which is not optimal in the sense of economic theory : a budget specific to the euro zone investing massively in R&D and the zone's physical and digital infrastructure, a common economic policy and coordination of fiscal and social policies.
Europe is lagging behind in the digital revolution against the American Gafam and Chinese BATHX.Then, Europe continues to advocate a model of shared sovereignties at the global level while we are witnessing everywhere the return of affirmed nationalist strategic policies as in the United States, China, Russia, Brazil, India, the Kingdom - United, etc. Six decades of aggravated, even militant, naivety, with appalling results in terms of loss of global influence.
The third reason stems from the fact that the European Union has not taken the measure of the transformations of the world resulting from the double mutation linked to the New Digital Industrial Revolution (NRI) and the conflict for world domination between the United States. United and China. Europe is lagging behind in the digital revolution against the American Gafam (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft) and the Chinese BATHX (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei and Xiaomi). And she does not seem to perceive the accelerations in the transformation of the world. The United States and China have entered a long-term conflict for world domination since the early 2010s. These two countries are competing in the economic and technological fields and are gaining strength in defense. All blows are allowed such as the appropriation of the South China Sea by China or the American sanctions against Huawei to weaken this company in the development of 5G which is at the heart of the NRI. In 2020, these two giants contribute 40% of global GDP and 56% of military spending on the planet. The risks of short-term slippage are numerous, from North Korea to Hong Kong, Taiwan and the border between China and India.
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Europe is therefore not an integrated political unit having adopted a policy of power to resist external pressures. It cannot be compared to the United States of 1790 which had just created the American nation and a federal state to serve it. On the contrary, Europe is economically divided between the North and the South of the euro area and politically divided between the West and the East of the European Union. In addition, it is weakened by Brexit, which reflects the rejection of this Union by a growing proportion of the peoples of European nations.
Not only is the European Union not experiencing a Hamiltonian moment, but its political and strategic non-existence threatens its independence and prosperity.