The deal between Israel's key economic partner and its main enemy is an alarming wake-up call • Tehran understands that the move, which could save the Iranian economy, will be considered a "finger in the eye" to the US
Presidents Shai and Rouhani in 2019
Photo:
AFP
The recently leaked agreement between Iran and China is a "regime saver" agreement and a broad, economic and security partnership. The Chinese will invest about $ 400 billion over 25 years in Iran, in exchange for Iranian oil at a large discount. The agreement will, of course, hurt the heavy sanctions imposed on trade with Iran and the US effort to isolate it under a "maximum pressure" strategy. For Israel, the deal between Israel's key economic partner (today) and its main enemy must act as an alarming wake-up call: China is not a friend of Israel, and certainly not a substitute for American support.
President Rouhani initiated the agreement in 2016, following the nuclear deal, as a result of which economic sanctions were lifted from Iran. Under the deal with China, approved by the Iranian cabinet, China's presence in banking, communications, ports, railways and infrastructure projects in Iran will be expanded. The agreement will include military cooperation, cyber and technology, joint training and coaching, as well as cooperation in weapons development and intelligence.
Archive // Photo: Reuters
Reactions to the deal in Iran have been negative and critics of President Rouhani have condemned it: Understandably, a weakened Iran will end up on the losing side of the deal. They see how the Chinese investment method “captures” countries with heavy debt, and at the end of the process a leverage is created that allows the Chinese to take over the country’s critical infrastructure and natural resources. The method is part of the Chinese strategy, known as the "Belt and Road Initiative", which is implemented in more than 100 countries.
The regime in Tehran, however, understands that the deal could save the Iranian economy, be a "finger in the eye" to the US and allow the regime to rely on China and its capabilities, with an emphasis on a civilian surveillance model, which will increase the likelihood of government rule.
The agreement has not yet been signed and its leak serves internal interests in both countries. The parties may wait until the US election, hoping that Biden will abandon the "maximum pressure" plan. The abolition of secondary US sanctions on Iran, which deterred Chinese banks and energy companies from promoting significant business in Iran, will open up great opportunities for cooperation.
For Israel, the very talk of an agreement is a clear signal that it is time to change policy and begin secession from China. Iran is the most dangerous enemy of Israel, its leaders vow to destroy the Jewish state and develop a nuclear and ballistic missile program with the ability to carry nuclear missiles. Iran funds and arm Hamas and Hezbollah, which has accumulated more than 150,000 missiles on the northern border. Introducing precision-guided armament (PGM) capabilities to the region, capabilities that change the rules of the game and threaten to damage symbols of government, military installations, infrastructure and civilian centers and cause significant damage to Israel.
Strategic interest
China is the dangerous rival of the United States, Israel's most important ally. The Chinese distribute nuclear and missile technologies to rebellious regimes such as Iran, North Korea and Pakistan, threaten Hong Kong, Taiwan and the South China Sea, steal intellectual property and commit blatant human rights violations. The Chinese lied and concealed vital information about the corona, which could have helped the world prevent human and economic disaster.
For Israel, separation will not be easy. China is one of the major economic partners and an important source of financial investment, after the United States and Europe. Chinese-Israeli trade stood at $ 15.3 billion in 2018, a 4,400% increase from 1995. China sees critical infrastructure in Israel as part of its global expansion venture. The port of Haifa, which has already caused tensions between Israel and the United States, the port of Ashdod, the tunnels in the Carmel, the subway in Tel Aviv, desalination facilities and more. The strategic importance of the infrastructure is clear, especially in light of the fact that part of it operates alongside military facilities, business and food centers and other essential services.
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Israeli high-tech has been marked by China as an essential technological source for building weapons for the next generation, even if under the guise of "civilian" investments. Israeli start-ups raised $ 325 million from Chinese investors in three quarters in 2018, compared to $ 76 million in 2013. The Chinese investments are strategic and are intended to leverage Israeli knowledge in the fields of artificial intelligence, advanced computing, autonomous vehicles, robotics and data science. These technologies have been recognized by the Pentagon as essential to military modernization efforts, even if they are "civilian" in their current application. Israel must re-evaluate its ties with China, because it is in the central strategic interest to ensure that Israeli and American military superiority is not eroded.
Israeli strategy planners may be tempted by the idea that economic ties between China and Israel will affect Beijing's growing partnership with Tehran. This is of course an illusion: the Chinese will buy what they can, according to their needs, from Israel and Iran, without preferences and fear. If it is forced to choose, there is no doubt that China will choose Iran, which is able to provide it with the critical energy for its existence, which Israel cannot. The Iranian population is eight times larger, the land 75 times larger and it occupies a strategic area that is important for the Chinese takeover plan. Beyond that Iran is a bitter American enemy that China can leverage in global competition with the US.
Get closer to the US
All this puts the US and Israel on one side and China and Iran on the other in the developing cold war between the powers. Israel has no choice but to side with the American side, including in official policy. Israeli decision makers are not required to pass regulations or legislation that will stifle the private sector; To ensure that strategic investment-related decisions are not made by bureaucrats driven only by a narrow local agenda, the Israeli government must help its high-tech entrepreneurs leverage capabilities through strategic partnerships with India, Japan, Australia, Canada, Singapore, and similar countries. Relations with the Gulf states (and safeguarding security interests) Leverage is essential to identify alternative capital for Chinese investments.
There is no doubt that along with illustrating Israel's commitment to secession from China, additional opportunities will be created to deepen cooperation between Israel and the United States. Technological, military and intelligence cooperation will rise to another level and deepen political cooperation. As the Chinese promote the possibility of joining hands with the worst of Israel's enemies, Israel has no choice but to get closer to its best friend and keep its distance from its biggest rival.
Brigadier General (Res.) Prof. Yaakov Nagel is a senior research fellow at the Institute for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) and serves as a visiting professor in the Faculty of Aeronautics and Space at the Technion. Previously, he served as Netanyahu's National Security Adviser and the actual head of the National Security Council. Mark Dubowitz is a former investor and manager in the capital and high-tech market and currently serves as CEO of FDD, where he focuses on Iran and China.