Dismantling the Bureau | If the "Provisional Legislative Council 2.0" comes to the democrats "total resistance" or will it fight every inch?

Political situation

Written by: Lin Jian

2020-08-04 07:00

The election of the Legislative Council has been postponed. The current political focus is on how the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress decides on the arrangements for the parliamentary vacuum period in the coming year. Both the current overall political situation and the power of the parliament in the coming year are quite detrimental to the democrats: on the one hand, they have to face the DQ red line drawn by Beijing, and the space for activities is gradually narrowing; on the other hand, if the nomination is ruled invalid The four incumbent members cannot transition to the next year's parliament, and the democrats lose even one-third of the key minority veto power at any time.

For the democrats, there is still a deeper dilemma to deal with: once the democrats lose the key minority veto power, or even if Beijing decides to deal with the parliament in the coming year in a form similar to the provisional legislature, whether or not to accept appointment? The minority who lack parliamentary influence, or protest to the end? If it chooses to boycott a full-scale boycott, will the democrats "get down" 23 years ago and the history of the overall dominance of the establishment will repeat itself?

"Hong Kong 01" learned from many senior democrats who boycotted the Provisional Legislative Council after the reunification and hoped to use their experience to send a message to the younger generation. Many people have expressed that they have no position on this, and generally think that the final decision of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress should be taken into consideration before making any plans. Among them, the former Legislative Councilor of the Labor Party, Li Cheuk-yan, further stated that, regardless of whether he joined the "transitional assembly" in the coming year, the democrats should learn from the lessons of the pre-election DQ. At this stage, they should not arbitrarily disclose their response strategies. ".

Political circles are currently paying close attention to the fact that the specific arrangements for the "transitional assembly" in the coming year will be decided by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress. (Profile picture)

The Provisional Legislative Council was led by the organizational system and had a profound impact

On the eve of the reunification, the then governor of Hong Kong, Patten, launched a "new nine groups" political reform plan, which greatly increased the democratic elements of the 1995 Legislative Council elections. This caused strong dissatisfaction in China and led to political wrestling between China and Britain. China finally rejected the "through train" arrangement. After 1997, the Legislative Council members all "get off the train". The Chinese side set up a new provisional legislature to fill the vacancy before the 1998 first legislative council election. The Provisional Legislative Council is elected by a unanimous vote by the Selection Committee of the First Term of the Special Administrative Region Government. The democrats are dissatisfied with the undemocratic way of forming the Provisional Legislative Council. Except for the ADPL, other democrats collectively boycott the Provisional Legislative Council.

Since the Provisional Legislative Council has an overwhelming majority of establishments, in terms of legislative work, many decisions have been made in favor of the establishment, which are considered by the democrats to restrict human rights, and the impact has continued to this day. For example, the Private Bill on the Right to Collective Bargaining by Li Cheuk-ren proposed before the reunification was repealed; after the amendment of the Public Order Ordinance, processions and assemblies have also changed from a notification system to a notice of no objection from the police, resulting in the current leadership of public gatherings being vested in the police . As a result, the political atmosphere has been tense for more than a year, and the democrats have applied for a ban on many assemblies. Eventually, many pro-democrats have been prosecuted for allegedly assisting in organizing unapproved assembly.

Li Cheuk-ren was one of the former members of the Legislative Council. He witnessed the strongest period of the democrats from 1995 to 1997, and the weak period of the democrats falling behind and being a minority in the parliament after the return. When asked, he said that as a member of the original proposal, the right to collective bargaining was abolished, of course, it is a pity, but he believes that even if the democrats did not boycott the Provisional Legislative Council, the Legislative Council after the first election in 1998 is still the establishment. Leading, the abolition of the right to collective bargaining, and the revision of the "Public Security Regulations" are actually impossible to prevent. Therefore, he believes that the two issues should be looked at separately. It will not be said that the democrats boycott the "Provisional Legislative Council 2.0," and the resistance will suddenly go nowhere.

Li Zhuo-ren's message to the democrats is that no matter whether they will join the "transitional council" in the future and how they will behave in the future, they should first reach a consensus and "do nothing but tell." (Profile picture/Photo by Huang Baoying)

Li Zhuoren advises: Don’t fight too hard, "just do not say"

After 23 years, history repeats itself at any time. There has also been a discussion in the democrat camp recently: once the transitional assembly in the next year operates in a form similar to the Provisional Legislative Council, the "selective" appointment of the current democrats is to "adhere to principles." "It's still "Inch of land must be contended." Differences in related positions have also become the fuse of another split at any time.

Li Zhuoren said that since the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress has not made a final decision, it is too early to discuss relevant positions. However, he believes that whether to join or not to join, it is actually not the most important thing. It is that members of the democratic camp should advance and retreat together, reach a consensus after discussion, and "just do not say": "You show the bottom line from the beginning. , The strategy is exposed to the sun, and in the end it will only make Beijing "satisfied with food."

In fact, a number of "protestant" candidates signed a statement before the primary election, promising to "veto the budget and force the chief executive to respond to the five major demands." This became one of the focus of subsequent questions by the Returning Officer, and some candidates also participated in the election. The nomination was ruled invalid for related reasons. Li Zhuoren believes that although DQ is mostly a political decision, if the government is determined to DQ a certain candidate will definitely find a reason, but if the democrats show their bottom line prematurely and reveal their trump cards, it is completely a problem of another level. With reference to the previous experience, he believes that the democrats should wait and see the final decision of the National People's Congress before formulating the next step. Don't make a random public strategy, and take the effect of "last come first".

In the past, some veterans and radical democrats claimed that the purpose of signing the joint protest program was actually to "clamp" the traditional big parties and moderates to ensure that after they entered the parliament, the struggle would not be soft or temporary. In the coming year, the space for activities of the democrats will narrow, and the contradiction between "all-out resistance" and "appropriate compromise" will certainly continue to exist. Li Zhuoren lamented: "That's the time to test the mutual trust of the various factions." He also pointed out that under the current harsh environment, the most important thing is that the democrats sit in the same boat and get together, so that no unnecessary disputes should arise.

Chief Executive Carrie Lam, citing the epidemic, announced on July 31 that the Legislative Council election was postponed for one year. (Data Picture/Photo by Luo Junhao)

Another senior democrat who did not want to be named stated that the arrangements for this transitional assembly are different from the disputes of the Provisional Legislative Council. One of the reasons for the boycott by the democrats back then was that the Provisional Legislative Council was not established on the basis of the Basic Law but was political. The product of the struggle was produced by screening, and the democrats did not join; the postponement of elections under the epidemic can be regarded as a special situation, and the democrats' actual response methods need to be discussed.

He also believes that if it is true that the election is postponed solely on the grounds of the epidemic, so that the current legislators can be postponed, can they justify themselves. Otherwise, changing the power distribution of the current parliament will definitely involve political factors.

The original Legislative Council members were unable to transition to the Legislative Council after the reunification, and the Chinese side started to set up a provisional legislature. (Photo of Hong Kong Government Annual Report)

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