The world could be very different for investors in just three months

Signs of optimism among investors 0:56

(CNN Business) -  As investors carefully analyze an uncertain horizon, one thing is clear: the context of the markets will be very different in three months.

In a note to clients this week, strategists at Goldman Sachs, including Kamakshya Trivedi, forecast a "substantially different picture" for December.

They noted three possible developments:

On the reopening of schools, Goldman Sachs expects a "bumpy process" characterized by "some false starts," especially in the United States. And that could affect the markets, especially in September.

• READ: When schools reopen there will be more information on the spread of the coronavirus as optimism for a vaccine grows

"The evidence so far suggests that there is a way to reopen schools without causing a sharp increase in the spread of the virus," said the investment bank. "But those examples generally occurred in places where transmission has been fairly low and where strict protocols have been followed."

The conclusion of the US elections will also provide investors with greater clarity, especially regarding the relationship with China. Goldman Sachs believes decoupling between the world's two largest economies threatens to continue no matter who wins, although Joe Biden would be less inclined to impose tariffs.

And, more importantly, Goldman Sachs believes there is a "good chance" that at least one vaccine will be approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in late November, which which will allow it to be "widely distributed" in mid-2021.

"These types of deadlines could imply a significant boost to GDP compared to the 'no vaccine' scenario, especially in the United States, a country that is likely to lead the vaccine race and is likely to experience worse effects than Europe without a vaccine. stressed the bank's strategists.

They also predicted that the S&P 500 will end the year around current levels, but note that the index can potentially skyrocket another 11% if a viable vaccine enters the picture.

What this means: The outlook for investors this summer is dim, with little transparency about the path of the virus or about upcoming rounds of stimulus funds. But Wall Street believes some clouds could clear before the end of the year.

"We are at a crossroads," Thomas Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, told Alison Kosi of CNN Business on Wednesday.

• LOOK: CDC projects more than 181,000 coronavirus deaths by the end of August

If it becomes clear that the virus has peaked in the United States and, moreover, the increase in cases in the Sun Belt is under control, investors should go on the offensive, he said.

Of course, nothing is yet a fact. In three months, the situation could also be significantly worse, with an increase in coronavirus cases in other parts of the US There is also growing concern about a second wave affecting Europe and Asia.

What TikTok means for Microsoft's long history in China

Microsoft has spent decades building good relationships with Beijing. That could help the company in its bid to buy TikTok's operations in the United States and some other countries… Unless the deterioration in US-China relations stands in the way.

Microsoft has become the top candidate to save TikTok from President Donald Trump's threat to ban the app unless it finds an American buyer. TikTok is owned by ByteDance, based in Beijing. A deal would grant Microsoft ownership and operation of TikTok services in the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

Unlike other large US tech companies, Microsoft has a strong influence in China, and its products have a significant presence there, according to CNN Business's Sherisse Pham.

• READ: Why investors should worry about the future of TikTok

The Background: Microsoft has been in China since 1992 and employs 6,000 people across the country. Its software is used by the Chinese government and companies, and LinkedIn is a popular social media platform for professionals in China. Bing is the only foreign search engine with market share.

Microsoft, based in Washington, also has a network of top-tier alumni in China, thanks to the highly influential Microsoft Research Asia (MSRA) laboratory.

Many founders and senior executives of companies like Alibaba, smartphone maker Xiaomi, and e-commerce startup Pinduoduo started at Microsoft and received training at the MSRA. Even Zhang Yiming, the founder and CEO of ByteDance, briefly worked at Microsoft before leaving, allegedly out of boredom.

• LOOK: TikTok is a threat to national security, say US politicians This is what experts think

That said: Some Trump administration officials suspect Microsoft is too kind to Beijing. Company-owned products like Bing and Skype have enabled surveillance and censorship in China, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said in an interview with CNN on Monday.

Keep an eye on it: tensions on technology continue to rise. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday urged US companies to remove "unreliable" Chinese-owned technology from their digital networks, detailing a broad plan aimed at dramatically curbing China's reach.

Nintendo is through the skies

Video game sales continue to skyrocket during the pandemic, and Nintendo is charging big.

Latest: The company said Thursday that net sales increased 108% between April and June compared to the same period last year. Operating profit grew a staggering 428%.

Sales of Switch consoles and the popular game "Animal Crossing: New Horizons" continue to generate revenue. Nintendo said it has now sold 22.4 million units of "Animal Crossing" since the game's launch last March.

"Sales of this title remain strong without loss of momentum, greatly contributing to overall growth in software sales," the company said in its earnings release.

That's not all: Zynga, who created FarmVille, is also thriving. The company raised its full-year earnings guideline on Wednesday.

"With so many people at home, we saw high levels of player engagement, social connection, and monetization in our portfolio," the company said in a statement. Shares rose more than 5% in pre-trade trading.

What's coming

Hilton will report results before US markets open. Booking Holdings, Caesars Entertainment, Datadog, Uber, Yelp and Zillow will follow after closing.

Also today: Initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week ending August 1 are expected to reach nearly 1.42 million. That would be slightly less than the number of requests received during the previous week.

Coming soon: how did the US job market fare during July?

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