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Written by: Zheng Cuibi
2020-08-08 22:05
Last update date: 2020-08-08 22:05The new crown pneumonia epidemic in Hong Kong has fallen in recent days, and the number of newly diagnosed cases for 6 consecutive days has fallen below 100, down to 69, the lowest in the past 18 days. The epidemic situation is over?
Zhang Zhujun, director of the Infectious Diseases Division of the Center for Health Protection of the Department of Health, said that although the number has declined, it is still more than the peak period of the second wave; if the recent confirmed cases are active or are super spreaders, a new round may be triggered. Infection, she reminded the public not to relax and to maintain social distancing, otherwise the epidemic will rebound and "it is not surprising that it will burst into thousands."
Many experts also believe that the epidemic situation has improved slightly, but there are still many cases of unknown source of infection, and the number of new cases has not fallen at an ideal rate. The difference between dozens of cases and more than a hundred cases is not very large. If there is a rebound, it will return to its original shape. It is believed that when the restrictions imposed by the government expire next Tuesday, it is necessary to extend the relevant measures.
Zhang Zhujun called on citizens to continue to maintain social distancing during holidays, and domestic helpers should also be reminded to maintain social distancing when going out. (Photo by Gao Zhongming)
Zhang Zhujun: It's not surprising that a slack and exploded to thousands
Zhang Zhujun said that although the number of confirmed diagnoses has fallen in the past few days, it is still at a high level. It is more than the peak period of the second wave. She hopes that the peak has passed, but she also needs to observe the changes in the epidemic. The date is recent. If someone is active or is a super spreader, there is a chance to trigger a new round of infection. "If there is a slack, it can explode to hundreds or hundreds of cases at any time. If (today) there are more than 60 cases, one There is slack, (explosion to) thousands are not surprising."
She believes that the epidemic has fallen back, but the rate of decline is slow. "It's stagnant, (the number of confirmed diagnoses remains at) a few hundred for a period of time, and the number of cases under 100 has been (maintained) for a few days. It's not because the decline is so fast, it may be social distancing. Not too enough, and the base is large. Starting from a few hundred cases, it will fall slowly.” She believes that the epidemic can get better, and it has to do with quarantine, tracking and other tasks. “But the biggest credit is social distancing.” Today and tomorrow are weekends, she appealed Citizens who continue to maintain social distancing during holidays should also remind domestic helpers to maintain social distancing when going out.
▼In the third wave, the government has extended the restrictions on gatherings and banned food in the evening market.▼
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Xu Shuchang: The number of confirmed diagnoses tomorrow will not be low Liang Zichao: The chain of transmission can never be cut off
Xu Shuchang, chair professor of the Department of Respiratory System at the Chinese University of China, said that the epidemic situation has improved slightly, but a single-day number cannot be used to make a conclusion. There are still 40 to 50 preliminary diagnoses today, and the number of confirmed diagnoses will not be low tomorrow.
Today, of the 67 local infection cases, 30 are of unknown origin, with a rate of 44%. Xu Shuchang believes that the rate is still high and the government's restrictions must be extended. Regarding the number of outbreaks in workplaces today, he believes that private companies should appeal to the government to allow civilian employees to work at home, while the MTR needs to clean up the Kowloon Bay Depot.
Respiratory system specialist Liang Zichao said that the epidemic has improved because measures such as social distancing and mask orders are effective. However, since the work of tracking close contacts is still not in place and the chain of transmission cannot be interrupted, the government is advised to strengthen work places and clusters. Epidemiological investigation, tracking and quarantine of infected buildings are carried out. "First, the spread of "Willitou" can be cut off. If it is not, it will flow into the community."
Liang continued that the government's restrictive measures should be maintained for at least two to three weeks. The current effective reproduction rate of cases is still around 0.6, and ideally it should drop to 0.3 to 0.5. If the number of confirmed diagnoses drops to a single digit by then, it will be considered safe and secure. He bluntly said that the rate of decline of the epidemic is not ideal, and the difference between dozens of cases and more than a hundred cases is not very large. If there is a rebound, it will be returned to its original state.
Xu Shuchang believes that the proportion of cases with unknown sources is still high, and the government's restrictions must be extended. (Information Picture/Photo by Lu Yiming)
Yuan Guoyong: There are still invisible patients in the community that have dropped from the peak
Professor Yuan Guoyong of the Department of Microbiology of the University of Hong Kong said on a commercial TV program this morning that the epidemic began to approach its peak on the 17th of last month and is now beginning to decline, reflecting that epidemic prevention measures have begun to take effect, but there are still invisible patients in the community, and the number of tests is insufficient. The number of confirmed cases will remain at more than 80, and the future development of the epidemic will depend on whether the public can wear masks and avoid dine-in.
Liang Zichao said that the improvement of the epidemic is due to the effective measures such as social distancing and mask orders, but because the work of tracking close contacts is still not in place, the chain of transmission cannot be interrupted. (Data Picture/Photographed by Lin Ruoqin)
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