Virologist Christian Drosten is back with assessments of a second wave - and explains how, in his opinion, a second lockdown can be avoided.
- The coronavirus pandemic * is not over yet.
- The virologist Christian Drosten now expressed himself in a guest post for " Die Zeit" .
- He explained how, in his opinion, a second lockdown can be avoided.
Update from August 7th, 9:34 p.m.: Compared to the previous day, there were 1,147 new corona cases in Germany . Before the current increase, the number of new infections reported to the Robert Koch Institute within one day was last above the threshold of 1000 on May 9.
Coronavirus in Germany: New data from the RKI - the number of reproductions is increasing
Update from August 7th, 6:59 p.m.: New figures from the Robert Koch Institute .According to the recently published RKI management report, the number of reproductions increases from 0.99 to 1.16. The smoothed 7-day R is now 1.16 instead of 1.06 the previous day (data status: August 7th, 0:00 am).
Meanwhile, there is news in research: Apparently only 60 percent of corona patients develop protective antibodies. Under certain circumstances, it will even be made easier for the virus to ignite a second time.
Corona: Germany before the second wave? Drosten expresses himself again for the first time - "We run the risk ..."
First report from August 7, 2020: Munich / Berlin - The virologist at the Berlin Charité Christian Drosten made regular comments on topics relating to the coronavirus pandemic in his podcast on NDR . Currently this is in the summer break. In a guest post for “ Die Zeit” , the virologist spoke up again and spoke, among other things, about the feared “second wave” . Drosten also explained how, in his opinion, a second lockdown can be avoided.
“When the Covid 19 epidemic reached Germany, the country reacted quickly and well. In hardly any other major industrial nation have so few people died of the disease, "wrote Drosten, who was awarded a special prize for outstanding corona communication, right at the beginning of his guest article published on Wednesday in" Die Zeit " . The first wave could be controlled better than many others. This was due to the fact that tests were carried out early and there was greater trust between society, politics and the infection sciences than elsewhere. "Our early and short lockdown saved the economy a lot of damage," says the virologist . In order to limit the economic damage, Justice Minister Christine Lambrecht made a proposal.
Coronavirus: According to Drosten, the second wave will have a completely different dynamic
At the same time, however, Drosten warns : “Now we run the risk of wasting our success.” There are currently a lot of new things being learned about the virus , but implementation is only hesitant. The virologist formulated several questions that had to be answered. Among other things, he asks: “What consequences do we draw from the knowledge that the virus is mainly transmitted via the air - not only via the classic droplet infection, but also via aerosols? What does that mean in autumn and winter for public buildings, for daycare centers and schools, for offices and authorities, for hospitals and nursing homes? "
Corona: Drosten warns of the risk of wasting the success achieved
According to Drosten , you have to be prepared for the fact that a second wave will have a completely different dynamic. "While the virus entered the population with the first wave, it will spread out of the population with the second wave," explains the virologist in his article. As a result, chains of infections that have recently been easily traceable could become more difficult to trace due to more extensive and simultaneous infections in the future.
Dear politicians, this time listen to Christian #Drosten in good time before the second wave storms in on us.- goia (@goia) August 5, 2020
Nevertheless, Germany is not at the mercy of a possible second wave . The goal must be to contain clusters in a targeted manner. The virologist names Japan as a role model , which brought the first wave under control without a lockdown . Drosten is now proposing that every citizen should keep a contact diary over the winter.
Corona: Drosten wants to rely on the detection of source clusters
“By focusing on the source of the infection, the newly diagnosed patient becomes an indicator of an undetected source cluster that has grown in the meantime. The members of a source cluster must immediately be put into home isolation. Many of these could be highly infectious without even knowing it. There is not enough time for tests, ”he explains. According to Drosten , examples of so-called source clusters could be open- plan offices , football teams, adult education courses and school classes. The latter one has to pay particular attention to in autumn: "Because there is only a small proportion of symptomatic cases, especially among younger students, every case of a symptomatic student can indicate a source cluster."
"Everyone involved must accept that in times of crisis not every infection can be prevented," wrote Drosten in his article. The medical officers and health authorities are currently following the guidelines of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) very precisely . In difficult times, however, the health authorities must be allowed to ignore the residual risk of infections . "You have to deploy the few staff where it matters: in the clusters," explains the virologist .
There will be numerous Corona demos again this weekend in Germany.
Corona: Pragmatic way to stop cluster growth according to Drosten, best solution
The existing recommendations of the RKI are precise and correct, but the offices need an additional crisis mode . “This includes simplified monitoring of the individual contacts, the definition of cluster situations that are subject to immediate and general quarantine, as well as a short cluster decay time allowing a residual virus load. There must be agreement on this, ”warns Drosten .
Without #Lockdown, but with residual risk: The virologist @c_drosten writes exclusively in @DIEZEIT how we get through the autumn with #Corona. His thoughts on the second wave, on the shortened #quarantine and #masking in crisis mode. #Subscription https://t.co/vyEFwcUcWp #red- DIE ZEIT (@DIEZEIT) August 5, 2020
Should there be a second wave , the virologist believes a pragmatic way to stop cluster growth is the best solution - “without lockdown, but with residual risk.” This requires the entire population, employers and politicians to think along. Drosten goes on to explain: "Everyone has to understand and support this path, including by following general measures such as the requirement to wear a mask and restricting private celebrations." An epidemiologist now classifies Drosten's proposal as "efficient, but not desirable".
Doctors warn of possible consequential damage from Covid 19 disease - especially to the lungs. A corona study from Wuhan, China, now points in this direction. (ph) * Merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital network
In the video: Drosten twice awarded for Corona podcast
List of rubric lists: © Michael Kappeler / dpa / dpa-pool / picture alliance