It is clear to everyone that the wedding between the Likud and Blue and White is a resounding failure.
Netanyahu and Gantz make a statement during tensions in the north
Precisely in one of the most difficult periods in the State of Israel, with an epidemic that threatens the health of citizens and close to a million unemployed - the government is failing to function and the coalition crisis between the two major parties is at its peak. The Likud and the Blue and White are busy exchanging accusations and fortifying their position on the budget issue, and no one really knows how this unfortunate saga will end. We have compiled the possible scenarios for you.
Nightmare Scenario: Elections
If no agreements are reached and no budget is passed by Monday in two weeks (August 24), according to the law, the Knesset will dissolve and the State of Israel will go to the polls for the fourth time in less than two years. The next few days will be the days of the 'Chicken' game - two cars driving in front of each other and examining who has the audacity and courage not to move the steering wheel even when it could end in a brutal frontal accident.
As of tonight, both sides are fortifying their position: the Likud demands an annual budget, the blue and white demand compliance with the agreements and transfer a biennial budget, and contrary to the state's interests and common sense, neither side shows signs of willingness to compromise.
In Likud announcements and media interviews, Netanyahu's people, as well as the prime minister himself, continue to insist that he is not interested in the election at this time. According to them, if Blue and White agrees to an annual budget, there will be no elections.
But in closed talks, the Likud says that Netanyahu is in a win-win situation. He has nothing to fear from the dissolution of the government, since according to the polls now in further elections it will be possible to get more than 61 to the right-wing bloc and form a narrow right-wing government.
In addition, if elections are announced, the pressure on MKs and members of the various parties will increase, and eventually someone will join the coalition to prevent a return to the ballot box.
In blue and white, they insist that this is not a political struggle at all. The party is sure that even when he signed the coalition agreement, Netanyahu did not intend to honor him, and certainly did not intend to evacuate the Prime Minister's Office to Bnei Gantz. Therefore, even if they now surrender to the issue of the budget, in the coming months there will be another reason for the Likud to dissolve the government.
The optimistic scenario: Compromise
As part of the chicken game someone will move the wheel. While in the coming days the threats will intensify the exchange of accusations, and leaks of screams and shouts will fill the headlines; But until the conference is dispersed, there are about two more weeks, which is enough time to find a compromise on the budget issue.
At the moment both sides have not yet broken the tools definitively. The Likud has not yet brought in a budget without the consent of Blue and White, as they threatened to do; And in blue and white, laws against Netanyahu are not supported, such as a vote on the establishment of a submarine investigation committee or a law that will prevent a prime minister from serving an indictment. That is, the parties leave an opening for dialogue.
On Wednesday, there will be a kind of test of the parties' intentions, when a bill by Minister Yoaz Handel and MK Zvika Hauser, which seeks to postpone the budget submission date, will go to a vote in the Knesset.
Through the mediation of the ultra-Orthodox parties and coalition officials, a number of compromise proposals have already been made, such as passing a biennial budget in the government after which the Knesset will approve an annual budget for 2020, and a few months later will approve the 2021 budget separately.
In the simple translation it is the redistribution of the cards, in the political translation it is the attempt of the Likud members to find an alternative coalition without blue and white, and with other partners from the opposition or with defectors who will succeed in obtaining blue and white ranks.
The chances of this move are slim, because after leaving blue and white, Netanyahu will have to join the right or Lieberman and even then get at least two more MKs who will complete a majority in the Knesset. Naftali Bennett says in closed talks that there is no chance That such a move is out of the question.
The faint scenarios
In addition to these options, there are a few other less likely scenarios - but the possibility that one of them will materialize nonetheless cannot be ruled out outright. The government may fall into a no-confidence vote, or alternatively a historic split can occur in the Likud that will lead to the formation of a new government headed by another MK that will be accepted by a majority of Knesset members.
Another slim possibility is the formation of a new government that will rely on the Lapid-Bennett-Lieberman axis - without Netanyahu and without Ganz. As mentioned, the chances of any of these scenarios are quite low.