This is the assessment of the Export Institute, based on the analysis of the data so far. • The contraction in world trade (13.4%) - the sharpest since World War II (then it was 10.4%)
Workers in a textile factory in China
Photo:
AFP
According to the World Bank's updated forecast from last June, the volume of world trade in 2020 is expected to fall by a sharp rate of about 13.4%.
This is a sharp decrease from the decline recorded in the volume of world trade at the end of World War II, when trade fell by 10.4%.
The rate of countries experiencing a contraction in GDP per capita will reach the highest level since 1870. The world economy is expected to contract this year at a sharp rate of 5.2%. This is a sharp decrease compared to the one recorded following the Grand Prix crisis in 2009 at a rate of 1.8%. World trade is expected to fall sharply by about 13.4%, according to an analysis of data conducted by the Export Institute.
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According to the Export Institute, these data reflect the intensity of the global economic crisis, and we may not yet be experiencing the peak of deterioration, which may be revealed as the signs of the intensity of the second wave of the plague increase. Developed economies, including the United States, Italy, France and the United Kingdom, are pulling global growth downwards. Is expected to be larger in 2021 compared to 2019. The size of the East Asian economy is expected to rise at the end of 2021 to a volume about 3.6% higher than in 2019.
The countries that will lead the growth of the Asian economy in the coming years are China, Indonesia and South Korea, along with smaller economies that include Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia. The significance of this analysis points to the fact that the epidemic reinforces the long-term trend that the global economic center of gravity is gradually shifting to Southeast Asia and Africa.
Israeli exports fell
The sharp decline in the volume of world trade also affects the volume of annual Israeli exports, which the Export Institute estimates fell by 14% this year in US dollars to about $ 99 billion, after recording a 6% increase in the previous year to a peak of $ 115 billion. This is a significantly higher rate than the growth rate in world trade, which according to the World Bank's latest forecasts, amounted to only 0.8%. In contrast to the subprime crisis in 2009, in which Israel suffered less compared to other countries and Israeli GDP even increased.
