Political situation
Written by: Sha Ban Shan
2020-08-11 07:30
Last update date: 2020-08-11 07:30The government postponed the election of the Legislative Council for one year on the grounds of the epidemic. The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress has made a decision this afternoon on the arrangements for a vacuum period for the Legislative Council in the coming year. "Hong Kong 01" analyzed the poll numbers of the Hong Kong Institute of Public Opinion and Reuters earlier, and found that over time, the government’s popularity has slowly risen, on the contrary, the democrats will gradually lose their momentum; in the Greater Bay Area The two major established voting warehouses, Hong Kong people and the elderly, have greatly increased their desire to return to Hong Kong to vote after the epidemic subsides. Therefore, objectively, if no major incidents occur in the next year, it is generally believed that delaying elections is beneficial to the establishment.
However, some people laugh and others worry. For the establishment, the postponement of elections for one year seems to be beneficial to the whole, but some people may be affected by negative impacts, and there is a chance that they need to change their deployment significantly. Among them, Ho Junyao, the current member of the New Territories West, wants to become the "vote king" of the establishment next year. I am afraid it will not be so easy.
▼In the third wave, the government has extended the restrictions on gatherings and banned food in the evening market.▼
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1. "Ultra Blue" characters may be affected
Political figures with extreme attitudes are highly dependent on the atmosphere of political conflict in society. The more society is torn apart, the stronger the ability to attract votes will be. He Junyao is the presenter of the "Extreme Blue" route. Some of the events that received widespread attention were the 7.21 Yuen Long White-clothed Man incident. He Junyao was photographed shaking hands with the white-clothed man at the scene. The outside world questioned that he was connected with the incident. Afterwards, he also questioned that the assailant slipped and fell on his own. These words and deeds may be widely controversial in society, but for Deep Blue people, they may become a big selling point or even "political achievements."
Although He Junyao himself was one of the earliest proponents in the establishment to postpone the election, the political circle generally believes that with the political atmosphere that is still struggling today, if the election is held as scheduled, He Junyao's chance of winning the election is quite high. Excessive vote ability becomes the "vote king", and the votes of other lists are divided.
In fact, He Junyao’s original list of candidates for re-election included three other KOLs described as "Deep Blue", namely, "Hua Ji" Yang Guanhua, "Black Super Brother" Xu Minfeng, and "David Sir" Ke Chaohui. Quite obviously, the main dark blue voters. If there is another election next year, the social atmosphere will be relatively relaxed and the number of votes will change at any time.
Li Zijing's sudden emergence in the election next year will add variables to the odds of winning?
Compared to He Junyao, another "deep blue" figure, Li Zijing, the New Democrat Party, has also been affected. Ho Junyao still has the advantage of being an incumbent member to gain popularity. His supporters may be quite disappointed when he sees him repeatedly provoking the democrats in the parliament. He also has a Tuen Mun rural background and has a certain amount of iron votes in hand.
Li Zijing, on the other hand, turned to a centralized online platform after losing his re-election in the district council election last year. In less than a year, he had more than 200,000 subscribers on the YouTube channel. His style became darker and darker. Later, he withdrew from the Liberal Party to cultivate his own Liberal Party. , Switched to the New Democratic Party to prepare for the election. In terms of popularity and political atmosphere, this year is indeed an excellent opportunity for Li Zijing to stand for election. If the social atmosphere changes next year, it is difficult to say whether he can continue to maintain today's popularity, at least it has added variables.
After the government announced the postponement of the elections, New Democrat Party Chairman Ye Liu Shuyi pointed out in a social network clip: "Zi Jing, you were grappling this year, now you have to reconsider." Li Zijing also admitted that there was indeed a little loss. However, due to the seriousness of the epidemic, we agreed to give priority to human life and put politics aside.
Both He Junyao and Li Zijing used "very blue" political attitudes to win support. If the atmosphere of political conflict eases next year, it is likely to affect their votes. (Profile picture)
2. New candidates "upper" add variables
Some incumbent members of the establishment originally planned to step down and let party members or allies take over. For example, the DAB had previously signed up to run for the election of Li Ronghao in Kowloon East, Yan Wenyu, who ranked second in Li Huiqiong's list of super district, etc.; Deng Jiabiao of the Federation of Trade Unions also won the election by party members and strived to return to Parliament. Election a year later, it only adds variables to them.
According to sources from the establishment, the establishment parties currently have no plans to "change horses" in the coming year. The original team has a great chance of running for the Legislative Council next year. However, "politics is too much in one day." Just as two months ago, no one thought that the election would be postponed.
Chen Kaixin is currently in a passive position, striving for re-election or appearing in the dark. (Profile picture)
3. Chen Kaixin's passive re-election situation is undercurrent
Chen Kaixin, who was elected in the 2018 Legislative Council Kowloon West by-election, was ruled "unproperly elected" after the court ruled that Liu Xiaoli had filed an election petition to win. As Chen Kaixin decided to appeal to the Court of Final Appeal, the seat was temporarily reserved.
Once Chen Kaixin loses the lawsuit and loses her seat, aside from the question of whether a by-election is necessary, for her personally, there will be one more obstacle to getting re-election. Because as a member of the Legislative Council, you can hold press conferences in the Legislative Council building to pay attention to people's livelihood issues and maintain exposure. As a member of the district, you can also assist with publicly funded consultations and assistance. If she loses her seat and fails to start an election immediately, she will fall into the "mortal world" for some time, losing the Legislative Council, a platform for publicizing her political achievements, and will affect her fight for re-election.
In response to enquiries, Chen Kaixin said that the current final hospital appeal is still not scheduled, and the situation is quite passive. It is inconvenient to comment too much. He emphasized that the people's livelihood will continue to be done in the next year to help the public prevent the epidemic.
The establishment also has candidates who will be affected by the postponement of the election for one year. (Profile picture)
4. Regional work is easy to be labeled "for election"
An incumbent member of the establishment who did not want to be named told the reporter of "Hong Kong 01" that the postponement of the election by one year means that those who intend to stand for election must maintain an "election warfare" for one year. The work in the region in the next year will be easily posted. The label of "election is near" and "re-election" is not fair to candidates who focus on people's livelihood work. In addition, next year's election will be the same as 2016, approaching the subsector elections of the Election Committee. By then, I believe there will be a potential candidate for the Chief Executive "Happy Horse" and more potential political issues will emerge.
This situation has an impact on both the democratic and the establishment. However, the congressman said that the establishment is relatively more reluctant to see the political atmosphere during the election period too high, because political issues come first, and there are more unstable factors for the establishment of the election.
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