Special interviews
Author: Zhai Ziqian
2020-08-14 07:30
Last update date: 2020-08-14 07:30The Hang Seng Index, which has always been heavily weighted by financial stocks, has long been criticized for its old economy-based combination. Lack of growth momentum and underperformed the performance of other markets. After the last quarterly review, the HSI announced that it would include "same shares with different rights" and second-listed companies into the stock selection category. The market immediately looked forward to some growth-powered technologies Giants can lead the HSI to rise.
A new quarterly review is ushered in a blink of an eye. If the HSI gradually incorporates these promising technology stocks and pharmaceutical stocks, can it lead the HSI to reach the peak and break through the top? Experts believe that it will only increase volatility and not necessarily drive the growth of the Hang Seng Index. Different people will see whether it is better or worse.
Zhi Yaohui, director of the research department of Yaocai Securities, believes that the inclusion of the HSI in new economic stocks will increase volatility, but it will not necessarily push the HSI to rise. If Chok is good, it depends on people’s opinions.” (data picture)
The HSI has always been dominated by financial stocks and real estate stocks, accounting for up to 60%. At present, the Hang Seng Index has ushered in a group of "new force" to support the market, which is expected to increase the Hang Seng Index's price-earnings ratio of about 10 times in recent years. Although it is helpful to increase the valuation of the HSI, how will it help the long-term development of the Hong Kong stock market in the future? Zhi Yaohui, director of the Yaocai Securities Research Department, believes that "volatility will increase, but it will not necessarily push the HSI to rise. Chok will have a different opinion if it is good."
He said frankly that the fact that the market has seen good new economic stocks driving the Hang Seng Index may be based on the continuous rise in the stock prices of these companies over the past period of time, but in fact it is not inevitable. He added that the Hang Seng Technology Index fell more than the Hang Seng Index when the Hong Kong stock market pulled back recently. Taking August 12 as an example, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.42% throughout the day, and the Hang Seng Technology Index still fell 1.67%. This reflects the fact that under the capital rotation, when the old economy catches up, new economic stocks may underperform the market.
Zhi Yaohui believes that Ali's upward momentum is relatively high, and it is expected that there will be more funds to chase goods; while Meituan has already experienced a certain increase earlier, mainly driven by the inflow of north water. (Profile picture)
Ali is more politically risky than Meituan
Zhi Yaohui believes that Meituan (3690) and Ali (9988) have a good chance of being included in this quarterly inspection. As far as the two stocks are concerned, he believes that Ali has a higher upward momentum and is expected to have more funds to chase goods; The Meituan has seen a certain increase earlier, mainly driven by the inflow of north water.
However, in terms of political risks, Tencent (0700) has been affected by the White House. Regarding the transactions between its WeChat and the United States, Zhi Yaohui estimates that Ali has greater political risks than Meituan. "Meituan can have no impact, because it is 100% concentrated on China's business; but Ali has the opportunity to be sanctioned. Since its development has not stopped China in recent years, it often conducts some overseas mergers and acquisitions, and its subsidiaries Taobao and Alipay are also constantly expanding outside. To expand overseas markets."
Zhi Yaohui believes that the Hang Seng Index may not be fully inclined to technology stocks. "Although the Dow has Apple, its proportion will not focus on the technology sector, and it will not become the Nasdaq." (data picture)
Technology index "rewarding" Chinese concept stocks HSI will not re-economy
If Ali and Meituan are included in this quarterly review, there is a good chance that each will account for 5% of the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index, which is the current upper limit of the weight of "WVR" stocks. By then, it may account for 20% of the total weight of Tencent. The market expects that as the HSI adds more new economic stocks, the proportion of financial stocks will gradually decrease. However, Zhi Yaohui believes that the old economic companies also have their investment value. The HSI may not be fully inclined to technology stocks. "Although the Dow has Apple, the proportion will not focus on the technology sector or become the Nasdaq." He added that the Hang Seng Index is an index that reflects the Hong Kong stock economy and financial market. Therefore, the HSI company’s launch of the technology index is precisely to prevent the HSI from including future technology stocks listed in Hong Kong as constituent stocks.
The U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin recently officially announced that companies listed on U.S. exchanges will be delisted before the end of 2021 if they do not comply with U.S. accounting standards. The market expects that more Chinese concept stocks will return to Hong Kong for secondary listings, reducing the The political risks of a single listing in the United States. Zhi Yaohui believes that the technology index has a greater chance of "retaining" them. The technology index is always set up for these Chinese concept stocks, and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (0388) is expected to benefit by then.
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