Human chains with hundreds of participants, resignations from the police, strikes in factories ... Since Sunday, demonstrations have multiplied to challenge the power of President Alexander Lukashenko, reelected for the sixth time on August 9 with 80 % of the vote, and accused of massive fraud during this election.
“It's amazing what is happening before our eyes. For the first time, the whole people are united in the face of Lukashenko, ”underlines Anna Colin Lebedev, senior lecturer in Paris Nanterre and specialist in post-Soviet societies. “It's more than a revolt. A wind of revolution is blowing in the country, the people want a change of constitution. This risks completely upsetting Belarus, which for 26 years adopted a politico-economic system largely inspired by Soviet communism. "
Faced with the thousands of demonstrators, the power in place chose force and violent repression to muzzle the revolt: use of water cannons and batons, arbitrary mass arrests. Since Sunday, at least 6,700 people have been arrested. Those who have since been released have described appalling conditions of detention. Two protesters were killed by police.
Faced with the escalation of violence, the Secretary General of the Council of Europe, Marija Pejcinovic Buric, urged Minsk on Friday to "guarantee" the freedoms of assembly and expression. In the evening, the European Union's foreign ministers gave the green light to sanction those responsible for the repression.
Will Putin let go of Lukashenko?
On the Russian side, the position remains unclear. Moscow announced on Friday the return to its territory of 32 Russian citizens arrested at the end of July in Belarus where they were accused of being mercenaries responsible for destabilizing this country before the presidential election. “The demonstrators fear above all a military intervention, as we saw in Ukraine in 2014, analyzes Anna Colin Lebedev. But Moscow could also quite simply choose not to intervene and let go of Lukashenko. Nothing is predictable with Putin, whose relations with Lukashenko have been ambiguous from the start. "
If the future of the country remains uncertain, mass gatherings should continue this weekend, after the call to protest launched by the opponent of Alexander Lukashenko in the presidential election. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya fled to Lithuania after filing a complaint for electoral fraud and claiming victory.