In the internal conflict between President Alexandr Lukashenko and the population of Belarus, multiple international actors are taking a position, starting with Russia, Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine, the immediate neighbors of the Central European country. If rationality and common sense do not mediate in those who contemplate this crisis from the outside, the situation could become the trigger for a new cold war and a serious deterioration of the situation on the continent.
Judging by the brutality suffered in police vans and in prisons by those who have denounced fraud in recent election results, a stable solution for Belarus can no longer count on Lukashenko. The overwhelming majority of those who demonstrated last Sunday to protest against the leader in front of those who did it to support him also points in this direction, as do the strikes in the country's large companies. On Monday Lukashenko had to deal with the direct rejection of the workers summoned to listen to him. His allusion to a redistribution of power in a new constitutional process sounds vague and should have come before the cruelty with which the police have acted against the protesters.
Belarus is of fundamental strategic importance for Europe and, although the conflict is of internal origin, its neighbors inevitably consider geopolitical considerations of different kinds (humanitarian, security, economic, military), which multiply risks and dangers, given the history of the last years. If a part of Lukashenko's environment could convince him to resign from power, perhaps the bloodshed could be avoided and the search for a compromise solution between different political sectors would be facilitated. This exit should bring together people who have been part of the regime at some point in the 26 years that Lukashenko has been in power and other sectors of the coordination council formed under the aegis of the electoral candidate Svetlana Tijanóvskaya. The objective would be a constitutional reform and new elections with a broad base of consensus. From the outside, it is difficult to say whether such a thing is still possible.
Because of his alliance with Lukashenko, Putin is key in the search for a peaceful solution and much will depend on how the Russian president personally assesses the situation. The positions of his next advisers do not coincide. After Lukashenko has returned to the fold and asked Moscow for help, the most nationalist and pro-imperial sectors of Russia seem divided and some of them indicate that they would be willing to provide it. Putin, for now, wait. The leader has deployed military and police personnel in case he decides to intervene. However, the perceptions by which it is guided and by which it will decide do not have to coincide with the reality of Belarus.
There are fewer bridges between Russia and the West today than in the past and there is a lack of intermediaries capable of generating trust, blurring stereotypes and establishing some kind of collaboration. The neighboring NATO countries of Belarus and Ukraine have shown restraint so far, and Russia has not yet crossed that border behind which there is no turning back, but it could do so at any time if no way is found to bridge the gap. the abyss.