“At this stage, an agreement with the United Kingdom and the European Union seems unlikely. I simply do not understand why we are wasting precious time, ”argued, with an angry tone that contrasts with his usual calm, the European negotiator Michel Barnier. “Disappointed and concerned” after the seventh negotiating session on post-Brexit relations.
This Friday, London and Brussels blamed each other for the impasse to find an agreement on their post-Brexit relationship, the British accusing the European Union of making the negotiations "unnecessarily difficult".
What are the stakes of this agreement?
After the divorce officially pronounced on January 31, 2020, the ongoing negotiations between the UK and the EU aim to establish the conditions for future relations between the two parties. The latter block in particular on two cacti: the conditions of competition (social, environmental and fiscal standards as well as State aid) and the explosive file of fishing.
When it comes to competition, the 27 seem to have the upper hand. "The single European market is a very difficult legal block to dismantle", explains Myriam Benlolo Carabot, professor of European law at the University of Nanterre. “From the start, the British have hit a wall. They tried the pick and choose technique (Editor's note: pecking at the partnership models that they like while avoiding constraints) but it doesn't work. "
The health crisis of recent months has made the game even more difficult for the United Kingdom, which basically finds itself alone in managing this unprecedented crisis. Especially since the United Kingdom suffered in the second quarter a record drop of 20.4% of its economy. Even worse than that recorded by its former partners in the Union. "The European agreement on the recovery plan (Editor's note: decided in July) post-Covid, very clearly shows the political strength of the EU", analyzes the expert.
The British, on the other hand, have a card to play on the question of fishing. “Access to these British waters for European fishermen is essential. It is an advantage for Boris Johnson in the negotiations ”, decrypts Myriam Benlolo Carabot. In France, 75% of Hauts-de-France fishermen spawn in British waters. There are five times as many European ships there as British ships in European waters.
Is the back-stop question likely to come back?
Another bone of contention, which had almost derailed Brexit, and could again threaten the post-Brexit deal: the Irish “safety net”. A solution was adopted last January, defining the relationship between Northern Ireland, which remains British, and Ireland, which remains in the EU. It was therefore necessary to guarantee that there would be no land border between the two Irlandes, likely to rekindle past tensions in this territory undermined by thirty years of civil war.
For now, Boris Johnson's deal grants Northern Ireland hybrid status from 2021, between the UK and the EU. This arrangement can be called into question by the Northern Irish Parliament every four years ... with each time, the risk of opening a Pandora's box.
How long to negotiate the exit of the United Kingdom from the EU?
Hurry up ! After 47 years of heated marriage, the divorce was registered on January 31. Since then, negotiations have started to find an agreement before the end of October. The time for each Parliament to ratify the deal, the transition period would end at the end of 2020. On January 1, 2021, the EU and the United Kingdom could then really start their new life as “ex”.
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In the absence of an agreement before December 31, it is the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), with their high customs duties and extensive customs controls, which would apply between the two former partners. What weakens economies already hit hard by the pandemic.
The next round of talks is due to take place in London from September 7th. In the meantime, Michel Barnier and David Frost, the negotiators of the two parties, will be "in close contact", assures the latter. If for the moment the two parties find themselves facing an impasse, they ensure that an agreement is still possible. “It is very possible that we will end up with the creation of a special statute, as it already exists for Nordic countries like Sweden” decrypts Myriam Benlolo Carabot. But Michel Barnier is already warning: “There will be no card access to the single European market. "