Political situation
Written by: Liu Jinhua
2020-08-22 07:00
Last update date: 2020-08-22 07:00The Hong Kong Institute of Public Opinion (hereinafter referred to as the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute) today (21) announced the results of the "We Hong Kong People" survey. In the online opinion group, 35% of the respondents support the retention of Legislative Council members, and 47% of the respondents are opposed to the public. The Institute also randomly interviewed 1,012 people by phone. Among them, 37% of the interviewees supported the retention of Panmin, 41% opposed, and 16% said half and half.
Leung Kai-chih, honorary director of the "We Hong Kong People" project of the Hong Kong Democratic Research Institute, said that many netizens and even politicians mobilized the public to register as members of the opinion group to answer the survey of "Legislative Council Going or Staying". The reference to opinions on the influence of political mobilization has raised questions about the representativeness of the results. Therefore, the team decided to publish the results of random telephone interviews conducted at the same time. The sample basis of this interview method is not directly affected by political mobilization. It can be regarded as a reflection of the overall situation of Hong Kong society. It is reiterated that the two methods of investigation represent two different methods. The result produced. Liang Qizhi emphasized that the survey results of the past opinion groups and the results obtained from traditional telephone interviews are "reasonably close."
Li Lifeng pointed out that because the online registration method relies on citizens to actively participate or mobilize others to participate, and telephone interviews cannot mobilize participation, the random telephone interview method will have fewer errors than the online registration answering method. (Photo by Li Zetong/Photo of Profile)
Leung Kai Chi said that online opinion groups are more mobile
Leung Kai-chih said that since May this year, the "We Hong Kong People" project has been collecting data in the form of online opinion groups, saying that this survey method is relatively flexible and suitable for the original intention of the plan to respond to social hot spots in an instant. He pointed out that the results of the Hong Kong Institute of Democracy Research from the online opinion group survey will be data-weighted for balance. In the past, the results obtained by the online opinion group and telephone random sampling methods were reasonably close.
However, Leung Kai-chih emphasized that the decision of the democratic legislators should be based on the wishes of the whole of Hong Kong or only the wishes of the supporters of the democrats, or whether there must be an absolute majority on one side to count. It is a question of values and non-methodology.
Li Lifeng points out that the phone has fewer errors
Li Lifeng, dean of the School of Journalism and Communication of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said in a telephone interview with "Hong Kong 01" that public opinion surveys are based on scientific research methods that reflect public opinions on specific issues. Different polling methods will have errors, but because online registration methods rely on citizens to actively participate or mobilize others to participate, and telephone interviews cannot mobilize participation, this random telephone interview method will have fewer errors than online registration answering methods.
However, Li Lifeng pointed out that in the opinion survey on the postponement of legislative council members or the general resignation, although there are differences between the telephone and online opinions, the difference is "not too exaggerated." Both interview methods are more objectionable. . In future investigations on this issue, there is a chance that the gap between support and opposition will be within the error rate. Li Lifeng pointed out that the academic answer is that you can’t hold firm and draw conclusions, but how to interpret this result will be decided by politicians, emphasizing polls Researchers and politicians view and use poll results from different perspectives, and whether or not to follow the results is not determined by the polling agency.
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