Israeli high-tech and cyber companies have operated in the Gulf states throughout the past decade, and now this activity will come to light - for the benefit of all parties • Everyone will take part: from the defense industries, through companies engaged in agricultural, water and food technologies, to any other potential business
The movement of private planes with businessmen will increase. Dubai
Photo:
AFP
There is no reasonable person who did not congratulate this week on the agreement with the Emirates. This is a real achievement with a huge return on the one hand, and almost zero price on the other. While the news reports have fed Mr. Israeli with glittering reports of luxury hotels and eye-popping malls, the real bonanza lies in the endless potential of business between Israel and the oil princesses, and its partners who may soon join the truly new Middle East cart.
An acquaintance who works in a central position in a large and well-known investment fund in high-tech, says that since the beginning of the week, the e-mail in the company's offices has not stopped emitting direct inquiries from officials from the Gulf. They all have the same wording: we have money, let's cooperate. "I have never seen such passion for business," he says. "I estimate we will be there in the coming weeks."
Israeli high-tech has been present in the Gulf for years. Not from above, in investments, but from below, in products. There is hardly an Israeli company that has not tried its luck in the Gulf in the last decade. Mostly things are said in cyber companies - defensive, and also offensive. The Defense Export Control Division (API) in the Ministry of Defense does supervise every transaction, but only in a few cases has it stopped or restricted transactions.
This has allowed companies like NSO, Verint, Check Point and others to operate in the Gulf with almost complete freedom, including teams that are stationed there on a regular basis. Those who are knowledgeable in the field knew how to look for the privileged terminal at Ben Gurion Airport - formerly the Masada Lounge and now Fattal - to which all private flights drain. And businessmen from the Gulf come here.
Almost all of this activity takes place in private jets, to be under the radar. Since there are no direct flights between Israel and the Gulf, the planes take off from Ben Gurion Airport, touch the ground in Amman and continue immediately east to their destination. The cost of each such private flight is tens of thousands of dollars on average. From a deal of tens or hundreds of millions of dollars, this is the most convenient and quiet way of transportation.
All of this is now expected to rise above the surface. So will the hundreds of other companies doing business in the Gulf. From the defense industries (all without exception) that in recent years have been trying to sell a variety of products there, through companies engaged in technologies of agriculture, water and food to any other potential business, including finance. Israelis and emirates have long since discovered each other; Now the relationship between them is coming to light.
The seeds of this relationship were sown in the mid-1990s, following the Oslo Accords. Then also the first Israelis visited Oman and the Emirates, delegations went to Oman and a mission was opened in Qatar. The second intifada cooled relations, but extremist Islam - Iran's Shiites and ISIS and al - Qaeda's - warmed them up. The Gulf understood that Israel is not the problem in the Middle East, but largely the solution: that with all due respect to the refusing Palestinians, there are more burning issues in the region that Israel is at the forefront of the struggle against.
This has led to deep, intimate, very helpful collaborations. The person responsible for them in most cases was the Mossad, the direct arm of the Prime Minister. Traditionally, the Mossad manages Israel's secret diplomatic relations, but in the last decade its activities have broken into any known envelope, and also served as a basis for significant operational cooperation.
F-35 plane // Photo: AFP
The Mossad overcame Mahmoud al-Mabhouh's assassination attempt in Dubai in 2010, which clouded relations with the princesses for several years. The Emirates were not angry at the time about the assassination attributed to the Mossad: Hamas operatives were not interested in them at all. Their anger turned out that their faces were openly whitewashed, in front of the security cameras. They demanded that Israel undertake not to carry out similar actions on their land in the future as a condition for restoring relations. This led to much deeper cooperation.
The UAE's demand to have the option to purchase F-35s and advanced UAVs from the US as part of the deal was not surprising. Nor was she new. It was previously reported that the Ministry of Defense did not authorize Israeli companies to sell advanced attack technologies to the Emirates, for fear that they would fall into hostile hands. This policy has not changed.
Hence Israel's constant opposition to the transfer of advanced American technologies to Middle Eastern countries. This opposition rests on the American commitment to preserving Israel's qualitative advantage in the region, which began in the Yom Kippur War and ended with a law passed in Congress in 2018 (pushed by the Jewish lobby) and requires consultation in Israel before any decision to sell arms to countries in the region. All U.S. governments have taken care of this in the past. The current administration is no different.
Not just through rifle sight
The Prime Minister's announcement that the agreement with the Emirates does not include any change in the permanent Israeli position, implies that the matter of selling F-35s to the Emirates was on the table. The extensive reports this week revealed a double truth: that Israel can really influence the deal. And that the way in which the issue was handled in Israel was not good. The Prime Minister has no real reason to exclude his senior ministers and heads of the defense establishment from a process that will be known at the end; The one who was scorched by the submarine affair was expected to act with full transparency and matter-of-factness, in order to prevent in advance any possible claim of foreign motives in his decisions.
In his announcement this week, Netanyahu detailed the consultations that exist on the issue of Israel's qualitative advantage. He mentioned, among other things, a consultation held by the head of the National Security Staff, Meir Ben-Shabbat, with the commander of the Air Force, Major General Amikam Nurkin. An inquiry revealed that this consultation was done casually, in a telephone conversation, without Nurkin understanding its full context. He was asked if there was a change regarding Israel's position regarding the sale of advanced fighter jets in the area, and replied no.
On the way, Nurkin got into trouble with his commanders, when it became clear that the conversation was conducted without prior approval and without late reporting. The procedure stipulates that talks with military officials must take place with the approval and knowledge of the defense minister and the chief of staff. Ben-Shabbat bypassed them and spoke with Nurkin directly. The Prime Minister's Office's response is that the head of the National Security Council has the right to summon officials. But in part, he can do so, but according to the procedure, he is not allowed (nor has any reason) to bypass the officials in charge.
Netanyahu. There was no real reason to exclude senior members of the defense establishment // Photo: Amit Shabi
Nurkin was mistaken in this case, but also wronged himself when he did not report Ben-Shabbat's request at the end of the conversation. This week he was in Germany, for the benefit of the joint exercise with the German Air Force, which included an exciting flight over the Dachau concentration camp and the Olympic Village in Munich where the Israeli athletes were murdered. It is likely that upon his return he will be summoned for questioning by Chief of Staff Kochavi.
Paradoxically, if Ben-Shabbat had consulted Nurkin properly - while obtaining the approvals and full disclosure of the details - he would probably have won an enthusiastic partner. And not just Nurkin: other elements in the IDF (from the Chief of Staff to the Intelligence, Planning and Operations Divisions) and in the Ministry of Defense (the Minister, the Director General and the divisions involved in defense exports) would also provide him with a supportive envelope.
For many years, the IDF has not seen the Middle East only through the intent of the rifle, but with a much broader view, which takes into account that peace and its perks often outweigh the dangers of war. The General Staff also understands that the geopolitical reality is complex and has no free meals for either side.
The United States has a deep commitment to Israel, but an equally deep commitment to itself. Given the current economic situation, and on the eve of an election, a huge deal of fighter jets that will flow tens of billions of dollars and thousands of jobs to the American economy seems more relevant than ever. This should be Israel's starting point; It would have made it possible, perhaps, to get a lemon out of this lemonade, and get a significant return for it from the Americans and the emirates alike.
It is not too late to do so. Certainly if up the road they join the move of Saudi Arabia and other countries, which may also have demands in worlds that bother Israel. It is doubtful that there will be anyone who sees this as an attempt to torpedo the agreement: this is a fundamental issue that needs to be addressed, in the Middle East, which is constantly subject to change and threats.
The normalization in the region is a huge achievement for Netanyahu, whose political, economic, and security value cannot be underestimated. Proper management of the matter now may bring these profits to a peak, at a time when the Israeli economy is also craving oxygen. Along the way, it will clearly and openly divide the Middle East into good and bad, ahead of the continued struggle in Iran and its envoys - Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza - who will do anything to drown this new reality in the old and familiar Middle East.
Hamas is cornered again
Gaza provided a reminder of this evil reality. While in the imagination Israel sailed towards districts of peace and economic agreements, in everyday life it was dragged into a skirmish in the south.
Hamas is not interested in escalation. There is no Israeli or foreign factor that thinks otherwise. Hamas wants money, and a horizon. The economic situation in the Gaza Strip worries him greatly, especially for fear that he will threaten the stability of his rule. He is frustrated that he is unable to reach long-term agreements with Israel, and even more so that his case does not concern the Arab and Western world at all. In Gaza, they saw with their own eyes how world public opinion migrated to Beirut, and with it the promises of aid.
The harassment that the residents of the south have been going through in recent weeks is intended to resolve the matter. Hamas is trying to transfer responsibility to Israel through it: that it will break its head. In the early days of commercial television in Israel, a program called "Haim Yisder" was broadcast. Haim Topol fulfilled her viewers' wishes at home. Hamas adopted the format, under the name "Israel will settle." He wants her to arrange money for him, if she wants to be quiet.
As of yesterday morning, there have been more than 270 fires in the envelope since the current wave began, more than two weeks ago. Until the beginning of the week, the "night harassments" also operated near the settlements of the envelope, and in some cases rockets were fired at Sderot and Ashkelon. Hamas was not responsible for all the activities, but it certainly allowed it. This is his regular way of signaling that he is in distress, without breaking the tools.
Israel knows this tango, and dances it accordingly. On the one hand, it reacts with firmness that should not be underestimated: Gaza is not destroyed from the air, but every night in the past week the Air Force and a host of Hamas attacked quite a few unique assets in the worlds of weapons and infrastructure. And fuel imports were restricted.
In Gaza Street, they immediately felt the result. Prices jumped, electricity hours dwindled. Internal pressure on Hamas increased. He falls into a corner: if he stops the violence altogether, he will be seen as having surrendered. If he increases, he may lead to an escalation he does not want. As always, Hamas tried to do both. Stop the nightly harassment and prevent rocket fire, but increase the fires.
Unlike the feeling in the center of the country, the envelope is not entirely black. Only some of it burned. The fires are disturbing, but the physical damage is limited. In the beginning there were a few balloons, which burned large areas. In recent days there have been a lot of balloons, which have burned small areas. The reason for this is the streamlining of the work of the fire brigades (the fire brigade, the IDF, the police, the Home Front Command and civilians). Every fire is quickly located and extinguished.
The main damage is psychological. Hamas is building on this, and enjoying the fact that every fire gets a resonance in the media and on social networks, and increases the pressure on decision-makers. As stated, for them, Israel will settle. And if she does not arrange - you will cook over a small fire.
The winds of peace will skip Gaza
A variety of factors are now trying to resolve this tangle. An Egyptian delegation visited Gaza this week. She arrived in Ramallah, skipped the Strip for a day, and returned to Cairo without consent. At the same time, UN envoys are also working, and regular negotiations are underway with Qatar to ensure that funding for the Strip continues in the future. The Qatari envoy is ready to come to Gaza to discuss this, but Israel has quietly announced its entry.
The Qataris do not rule out continued funding, but they have requirements. They want greater recognition of their contribution, certainly now that they are left out of the new peace agreements with their neighbors to the Gulf. They are also willing to discuss increasing the monthly amount transferred to Gaza from $ 30 million to $ 40 million. Israel will agree, subject to the money being transferred under supervision to civilian projects, including the G4G (Gas for Gaza) project to convert the Gaza power plant to gas, and to add a fourth turbine that will significantly increase its supplies and power supply to Gaza residents.
Israel will try to involve this in long-term agreements that will ensure that not every two or three months Hamas will come up with a new reason to harass the residents of the envelope. The problem is that the road there is, as always, through the transaction of exchanging the bodies of IDF martyrs and Israeli civilians held in the Gaza Strip. Anyone familiar with the details says that the price demanded by Hamas is so high that its chances are slim to impossible. To other things.
This reality is likely to accompany the south in the coming days as well. The parties will try to reach an agreement, but will live under the fear of escalation. As always, every rocket that flies from Gaza and every attack that comes from Israel has the potential to worsen the situation; The IDF is preparing for this, and the Southern Command held a series of discussions on Tuesday to be ready for escalation. The prevailing assessment remains that an agreement will be reached that will allow the quiet Sabbath to the south, but with a clear asterisk: Gaza will go nowhere. .