The prime minister who lost his luck

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After another visit to the hospital: Shinzo Abe in Tokyo on August 24th

For Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, 65, this should actually be a very nice week: Since Monday he has been in power for longer than any of his predecessors. His party friends wanted to celebrate the record - 2799 days. But nothing came of it: On the day of his triumph, of all things, Abe had to go to the hospital for an examination lasting several hours, for the second time within a few days.

And now Tokyo is mainly talking about one question: What's wrong with Abe, how serious is his condition?

Disastrous memories are awakened: In his first term in office, in 2007, Abe gave up his position abruptly after just one year. The reason was a chronic intestinal disease, which Abe later got under control with the help of medication to such an extent that he made a spectacular comeback.

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Shinzo Abe on his way to the hospital in Tokyo on August 24 - on the same day he became Japan's prime minister with the longest term in office: 2,799 days

But these days, the once hyperactive prime minister looks tired, pale and drained. At the commemorations for the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in early August, it appeared that he was not right on the line.

The current guesswork is fueled by the secrecy of the authorities, which is typical of Japan. In the absence of official announcements, reporters at Abe's headquarters have already started measuring the pace of his steps. TV cameras showed Abe leaning lightly against the wall before climbing into the elevator.

Political friends and opponents urge the prime minister to please allow himself and his health the necessary rest now. The supposedly well-intentioned advice is like poison for the politician who actually wants to lead his country for another year. Abe is head of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) until September 2021 - and thus almost automatically also premier. But now there are signs: The Abe era could end earlier than planned.

Little success for the history books

And the reasons for the possible premature departure are not only medical. Abe's luck has also been lost politically; its government record is meager. Apart from the record of many days that he has now set, he should leave little for the history books.

The Japanese had high expectations when they helped Abe achieve a landslide victory at the end of December 2012. After the earthquake and tsunami in northeastern Japan and the subsequent reactor disaster in Fukushima in March 2011, the prime minister promised to "restore" the deeply traumatized nation. Abe was bursting with self-confidence and zest for action, he talked like someone who wants to push a broken car again. After countless heads of government who had replaced each other almost year after year, the island country longed for a savior.

At the beginning of this year, Japan was also hit by the corona epidemic, albeit less violently than many other countries. It was the first major national crisis in which Abe should have stood the test of time.

But he failed. Instead of making clear statements, as is expected in highly centralized Japan, Abe acted hesitantly and contradictingly; often he was not even seen. State aid for those in need was paid out late. And just as the number of corona cases rose again, the government started a campaign to encourage people to travel with state money. After severe criticism from almost all camps, the capital Tokyo was suddenly excluded from the action again. The stimulus measure fizzled out before it began.

Instead of the hapless Abe, local crisis managers are now scoring points with the population across the country, such as the governor of Tokyo and her counterpart in Osaka. Abe's popularity plummeted, on the other hand, according to a recent survey, only around 37 percent of respondents are satisfied with him - at the beginning of his tenure, it was almost 70 percent.

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Shinzo Abe bows to Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako during a memorial service marking the 75th anniversary of Japan's surrender in World War II at Nippon Budokan Hall in Tokyo on August 15, 2020

Abe had originally imagined it differently. He wanted to gradually initiate his departure as prime minister with a glamorous staging: With the Olympic Games in Tokyo 2020, the third largest economy was to return to the times of the legendary economic miracle. Japan, whose population is aging and shrinking rapidly, should draw new hope. After the sporting event, so many observers predicted, Abe would call new elections and then arrange his own succession after a victory.

But because of the corona pandemic, the games have been postponed until next year, and even this new date does not seem certain at the moment.

In Japan, everyday life has long been gray again, massively darkened by the consequences of the corona crisis: The country has slipped into recession, and over the course of the year total economic output plummeted by 27.8 percent. This wiped out the moderate growth that Abe had fueled with extremely loose monetary policy. From "Abenomics" - that's what he called his politics - at most the name will remain in the end.

Abe's cabinet looks like a team from the day before yesterday

Now it is getting its revenge that Abe had a lot of money printed, but neglected profound reforms. So he promised to create a society in which "women shine". But he hardly followed words with deeds. Abe's cabinet already looks like a team from the day before yesterday; there, older men in particular have the say.

Abe also leaves a poor balance sheet in terms of foreign policy: The targeted political understanding with China, the most important trading partner, has moved a long way off. These days there are growing concerns about a military escalation in the East China Sea, where both neighbors claim the uninhabited Senkaku Islands (Chinese: Diaoyu) for themselves.

The relationship with South Korea is shattered: the eternal dispute over the consequences of Japanese colonial rule over Korea (1910-45) breaks out again and again. With nationalistic rhetoric, Abe and his supporters fuel the controversy about the past. At the recent memorial service for the war dead on August 15, the prime minister did not say a word of remorse towards neighboring countries.

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Donald Trump and Shinzo Abe on a visit by the US President to Japan in November 2017

Abe is all the more eager to maintain relations with the USA, the military protective power. Hardly any foreign head of government campaigns so zealously for friendship with President Donald Trump. But the American surprises his ally in Tokyo time and again with volatility, especially in relation to North Korea, which is nuclear arming itself.

Trump once threatened the North with "fire and anger", but now he's downplaying the threat posed by the youngest nuclear power. Trump repeatedly pointed out that Kim's missiles were unable to hit targets in the United States. In Japan, of course, you don't see the threat in front of your own door that relaxed.

In order to arm Japan more, Abe wanted to revise the pacifist constitution of 1946. In the document that the former US occupiers dictated to the country almost word for word, Japan renounced war forever. But this affair of the heart of Abe is extremely time consuming; he is unlikely to implement it in the remaining term of office.

Yoshihide Suga gets into position

Abe can now only hope to hoist a successor into office, whom he can influence in his favor even after a possible resignation. But his preferred candidate, the former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, is unpopular in the LDP - precisely because he is considered weak and flexible.

Instead, other possible successors are now getting into position in the ruling party. One who rejects any ambitions almost every day, but who is precisely why it is increasingly coming into focus, is Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga. The 71-year-old rules behind Abe like a shadow chancellor. Over the past few years, he has quietly and efficiently made sure that Abe miraculously survived numerous political scandals.

Unlike the prime minister, who loves big appearances and likes to make promises, Suga lacks any charisma. For this he is considered a competent crisis manager. At least this is a skill that Japan might need urgently in the future.