Electric car with charging cable
Photo: KAI PFAFFENBACH / REUTERSGermany's auto industry has never experienced such a slump. As a result of the Covid 19 pandemic, sales figures fell worldwide, in Germany only 1.21 million cars were newly registered in the first six months of this year - in the first half of 2019 it was 1.8 million. A minus of more than 30 percent, a historic decline. There are already signs of recovery, but not nearly as rapidly.
Stefan Randak
Stefan Randak is director and head of the automotive practice group at the interim management provider Atreus in Munich.
This is due, on the one hand, to the still uncertain economic situation, to the - to put it cautiously - not always successful model policy of German manufacturers, but also to the government's unsuccessful funding policy, which ignores the needs of domestic companies. Germany's state aid for the mobility of the future is going to waste. We could be a lot further a long time ago.
Funding for the competition
When the grand coalition in Berlin began to put together its Corona aid packages, the German auto industry was immediately on the spot and demanded that not only alternative drive models be promoted, but also low-consumption and low-emission vehicles with gasoline and diesel engines. That was by no means outrageous, as some commentators found, but all too understandable. The automotive sector in Germany employs around 825,000 people, but only a small fraction of them has so far been involved in the production of purely electric vehicles, hybrid or fuel cell cars. Those who are interested in securing all jobs must not ignore this fact.
But the government decided otherwise, as is well known. A funding program was only launched for electric vehicles, for pure e-cars, hybrid models and fuel cell vehicles. In addition, the subsidy is linked to the amount of the purchase price and the type of drive, the manufacturers add additional subsidies. In the ideal case, the customer saves up to 9,000 euros - if he buys a purely electric car that costs less than 40,000 euros. In addition, he saves thanks to the three percentage point reduction in VAT.
This brings almost nothing for the German automotive industry. This is mainly due to the fact that the offerings from BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen in this particularly subsidized segment are rather small. Instead, it is primarily foreign manufacturers who are currently benefiting from the German subsidy millions: Peugeot Citroen, Kia, Nissan, Hyundai, Renault and Tesla. It's not that the German manufacturers don't have interesting e-models. Only they are either in the luxury segment that is hardly eligible for funding, have months of delivery times due to low production capacities - or, unfortunately, they will not be on the market until next year. Gone stupid.
90 percent growth is not a trend reversal
Nevertheless, the trend reversal towards e-mobility is already being celebrated in many places. In the first half of 2020, the number of registered electric vehicles (pure e-cars and plug-in hybrids) rose by almost 90 percent compared to the entire previous year. In absolute numbers, however, that is around 90,000 units - less than one percent of all new registrations. The share of e-vehicles in the total passenger car fleet is also expected to be in this range by the end of the year.
This is a start, no question about it. It is not the breakthrough for e-mobility. There are three reasons why it doesn't go much faster:
Company cars : In Germany, the proportion of company cars is extremely high. In 2019, commercial vehicles accounted for around 65 percent of new registrations. Company car drivers are first and foremost frequent drivers, have high mileage and have to cover long distances. The e-mobiles from German and foreign manufacturers currently on offer are still nibbling on the 300-kilometer range - with the exception of Tesla. Vehicles with a list price below 40,000 euros - i.e. those with the highest subsidy - often only cover 150 kilometers on one battery charge. Many manufacturers are only preparing models that will last longer.
Charging stations : The network of charging stations in Germany is still at the level of a developing country, even if it is growing steadily. There are currently around 19,000 charging stations for e-cars on an area of 357,386 square meters. And by no means all of them are superchargers that guarantee a short charging time. The Netherlands (with 41,543 square meters) already has 19,500 charging stations. Full cost control for e-car drivers is still not available either. It will be months before all systems meet the requirements of calibration law. The operators cite the lack of measurement technology, the complex conversion and the lengthy certification process as reasons for the delay.
Uncertainty : Many customers doubt that e-mobility will be the only drive concept of the future. In the end, doesn't the hydrogen drive offer more advantages? The question of the actual environmental friendliness of electric cars also arises, because every Stromer is only as clean as the energy that powers it. Only around 40 percent of the electricity in this country comes from renewable sources. The share of hard coal and lignite is still around a third. Hydrogen still has to be generated with a high expenditure of energy. And the question of whether the production of their e-mobiles is really CO2-neutral (without purchasing CO2 certificates, of course), some manufacturers still have to answer unequivocally.
The state must set other priorities
The federal government's subsidies for e-mobility are going in the right direction, but so far they are no more than a drop in the ocean. Certainly, it is their own fault that German manufacturers are currently benefiting less than others. However, the current funding policy will not achieve a fundamental change in trend towards more environmentally friendly vehicles. First of all, this requires a more extensive range of vehicles with greater ranges and a comprehensive charging network. All of this cannot be achieved with the previous measures.
If the automotive industry is to be promoted in a targeted manner in order to preserve as many jobs as possible, the priorities must be set differently. The questions must be: Who exactly needs economic support? Why is this assistance needed? Are we moving in a structurally weak region? To what extent and over what period of time must the funding be granted? A future-proof corporate concept with clear statements about the product, organization, ecological footprint and shareholder value is a basic requirement. And it needs to be checked and rated by professionals, not just administrators and bankers.
The expansion of the national infrastructure must not only include roads, rails, power lines and mobile phone networks, but must also include a charging network for e-cars that is fed from alternative energies. The state also has extensive responsibility for the supply network for road transport with electricity and hydrogen. To leave all of this to the economy and only - as with the expansion of the 5G network - to collect money for awarding licenses is too little, takes too long and does not really bring the country forward. Administrative hurdles that are currently holding back the few ambitious operators must urgently be removed.
Everyone involved must do more
In addition, not every form of electricity is environmentally friendly. Anyone who, for good reasons, no longer wants nuclear and coal-fired power plants must not only find alternatives, but also ensure that this electricity arrives where it is needed. Power lines from north to south may no longer be obstructed and dragged away. Not only the energy suppliers, the federal government and the state governments have to be ready to compromise, but also the citizens.
Ultimately, of course, the car manufacturers, especially the German ones, have to optimize their range of models, their delivery times and the range of their vehicles. So as not to give the wrong impression: these vehicles will come. The new VW ID.3 promises a range of up to 550 kilometers, depending on the size of the battery, the BMW ix3 advertises up to 520 kilometers without a charging stop. The Audi Q4 e-tron is supposed to cover up to 450 kilometers, just as much as Daimler's EQC. So there is definitely light at the end of the "e-car tunnel". But when we reach the end of the tunnel depends very much on the general conditions.
Stefan Randak is a member of the opinion makers of manager-magazin.de. Nevertheless, this column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial team of manager magazin.
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