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As if how difficult it is to draft a state budget that caters to the interests of almost antagonistic groups were not enough, Brazil's Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, has become the target of an escalation of criticism issued by his boss, President Jair Bolsonaro. Behind the minister's public wear and tear are his proposals to serve a supreme order: extinguish the Bolsa Familia program, a brand of the Workers' Party (PT) governments, and replace it with the Renta Brasil program, with a value of 300 reais ($ 55) per month for up to 20 million families. The value assigned to the beneficiaries would increase by 58%, while the Government has to decide - in an intrinsically related way - what will happen to the emergency income due to the pandemic, whose last tranche of 600 reais (111 dollars) was allocated to 67 million euros. Brazilians and won this Friday.
Guedes says that the limit of the increase would be 190 for 247 reais (from 35 to 45 dollars). And that for that it would be necessary to end the income supplement for those who earn up to two minimum wages, a program that benefits 21 million workers; extinguish the Popular Pharmacy program, which offers free or subsidized medicines to 50 million Brazilians; stop paying aid to 400,000 fishermen during the closure; and create a new 0.2% tax on all financial transactions, similar to the little-missed CPMF. Last Wednesday, Bolsonaro said that discussions on the creation of the Renta Brasil program were suspended: “The proposal that the economic team brought me will not be sent to Parliament. I cannot take from the poor to give to the poorest ”.
The president gave Guedes three days to bring him a new proposal. The deadline expires this weekend. Monday is the deadline to present the 2021 Budget Law to Congress. If he continues the tradition, Guedes must deliver the proposal to the president of the Legislative Power, Senator David Alcolumbre, of the Democratic party. Senators have been angry with the minister since he complained that the Senate had committed "a crime against the country" by trying to reverse a presidential veto that would lead to not increasing salaries for officials next year.
A document is expected that contemplates a lot to the Defense and little to the other areas. Among deputies and senators there is the expectation that Defense resources will jump from 73,000 million reais to 108,000 million reais (from 13,554 to 20,000 million dollars). Meanwhile, the amount allocated to Education would be reduced from R $ 103.1 billion to R $ 102.9 billion (a cut of $ 37 million).
“There is a very large deficit in the military area. But we are in a post-pandemic, postwar moment. It is a discussion that we must have with them. But this is not the time to please the military. It is time for everyone to contribute their contribution ”, settled the deputy Elmar Nascimento, the parliamentary spokesman for Democrats, who will be the president of the future Mixed Budget Commission that will debate the public finances of 2021.
According to the information that reached the congressmen, part of the resources that would swell the coffers of the Armed Forces would come from Education, for the creation of civil-military schools. Something that is not well seen by specialists. “It is changing the true for the doubtful. From the point of view of education, there is no evidence of the effectiveness of this expenditure. It has not been proven that it is better to invest in civil-military schools than in a full-time school or any other initiative that we know of ”, explains Felipe Poyares, government relations advisor for the organization Todos Por la Educación.
From 'super minister' to weakened
Guedes publicly bleeds to death according to a script already seen before. It is similar to what happened to another super minister of the Bolsonaro Government: former judge Sergio Moro, who resigned from the Justice portfolio after an alleged attempt by the president to interfere with the Federal Police. It also happened with Luiz Henrique Mandetta, who was dismissed from the Ministry of Health for disagreeing with the denialist position of the president in the confrontation with the covid-19 pandemic. The sequence is roughly the following: Bolsonaro first gives signs of almost unwavering support for his adviser. Then he goes on to make small criticisms. At one point, he intensifies his attacks - it is the stadium where Guedes is now. In the next stage, he declares that he is not allowed to govern or that the results were not as expected. And, finally, resign or watch your minister resign.
Guedes' financial management was also under the spotlight due to a political dispute on Friday, when the Environment Ministry, led by Ricardo Salles, announced the suspension of all firefighting operations in Brazilian forests due to lack of money. His portfolio alleged that the Guedes Ministry of Economy had blocked resources to fight forest fires. But the vice president, General Hamilton Mourão, accused Salles of having "rushed" and denied that there is a lack of resources. Hours later, Environment rectified the announcement and said it would maintain operations.
Despite not being certain that Paulo Guedes will leave the government, Bolsonaro already receives suggestions of names to replace the head of the public coffers. The most famous are the Minister of Social Development, Rogério Marinho, and the President of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto.
Marinho is a former federal deputy of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party for the state of Rio Grande do Norte, in the northeast. He was the speaker of the labor reform during the government of Michel Temer. After not reaching re-election in 2018, he was appointed special secretary of Social Security and Labor in the Bolsonaro Government, one of the arms of the Ministry of Economy. As such, he articulated the approval of the Social Security reform last year and was one of Guedes' main allies until the beginning of this year, when he went on to defend more public investments to stimulate the economy. He was promoted to Minister of Regional Development, whose main function is to choose where new basic sanitation infrastructure, subsidized housing and logistics will be built.
The support of the political class weighs in favor of Marinho, which sees him as a representative of Parliament in the Government. Against his possible appointment are technical officials who understand that he would have to dedicate himself more to the economy than to politics. He plans to contest the Government of Rio Grande do Norte in 2022. Campos Neto would be the ideal substitute to calm the financial market. Although weakened by Bolsonaro, Guedes maintains the support of investors, who understand that the minister intends to encourage privatizations by state companies and approve administrative and tax reforms. Campos Neto is an economist and worked for 18 years at Banco Santander. Defend the autonomy of the central bank.