Lebanon, Iraq ... why Macron is relaunching France's Arab policy

Emmanuel Macron's lightning trip this Wednesday to Baghdad had been prepared in great secrecy for security reasons, Iraq remaining a high-risk country 17 years after the American invasion to oust Saddam Hussein in 2003, then the ravages of the Islamic State (Daesh).

For this first official visit, the Head of State, from Lebanon, had a simple but essential objective.

What role can France play in Iraq?

"Unity and national sovereignty: Macron rightly chose this theme, as Iraq is torn between the pressures of the United States on the one hand, and Iran on the other," underlines Didier Billion, deputy director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS) and author of

(ed. Eyrolles).

And contributing to the efforts for a government of national unity in this country still divided between Shiites and Sunnis is important ”.

At a time when the Iraqi people reject the heavy foreign presence and when Trump announces a withdrawal of American troops, Paris - once influential, but absent from the game since its refusal of the Bush war in 2003 - can advance its pawns.

“But not alone,” Billion warns.

The president, who tends to play solo, should involve European countries like Germany, Spain or Italy, to weigh in against the big players in the region.

"

Support from France, crucial for Iraq

What interest (s) for Paris and Baghdad?

Strengthening and stabilizing Iraq and, therefore, a Middle East under tension, is in the interest of Europeans, exposed to the repercussions of the Iraqi and Syrian crises, etc.

Without neglecting commercial interests, Iraq remaining one of the main oil producers ... but the poor state of infrastructure and corruption deprive the population of the benefits.

On the Iraqi side, it is crucial to have the support of France - and if possible of its allies - to free itself from the tutelage of Tehran and Washington first and foremost, but also of Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

During his meetings with Iraqi President Barham Saleh and the new Prime Minister Moustafa al-Kazimi, Emmanuel Macron encouraged them to take up "the challenge of multiple external interference" and assured that France, with its military operation Chammal, will continue " the war against the Islamic State group (which) is not over ”.

"Emmanuel Macron adopts the right method"

Is Macron relaunching an Arab policy?

Clumsy and unhappy in its policy in the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya vis-à-vis Turkey, Paris, on the other hand, asserts itself in the heart of the Levant, Iraq and Lebanon, two quasi-failed states.

"In Baghdad as in Beirut, Emmanuel Macron finally adopts the right method, speaking with everyone, even with the Islamists of Hezbollah, pivot of Lebanese policy, appreciates Didier Billion.

Because these countries can only recover with the participation of all their components.

It remains to discuss and negotiate also with the Iranians

, ostracized by Trump, but without whom nothing is possible in the region.

"

But beware, for this diplomatic return to be sustainable, the political scientist advises the president to avoid "an arrogant speech", his cute sin ...