The European Commission seeks to recover the initiative in the fight against the health and economic emergency

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, at an appearance last week in Brussels, DPA via Europa Press / Europa Press

The Community Executive started on Wednesday the new political course with the determination to regain the initiative in the fight against the health and economic emergency that the capitals had taken from it.

But the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has learned that the high beams are not enough to pilot the ship.

The availability of an unprecedented community budget gives him a new opportunity to give a renewed push to his agenda, but first he will have to deal with several crises that threaten the stability of his cabinet.

Von der Leyen gathered his curators in the traditional September seminar that marks the beginning of the course.

But this time, August was not a hiatus.

On the contrary: during that month new crises broke out, complicating the beginning of a period whose greatest challenge continues to be the management of the greatest health and economic crisis facing community institutions.

The president also begins without an incumbent in the powerful Commerce portfolio after the Irish Phil Hogan had to resign at the request of her government.

That is not the only problem.

Inside the doors, the Hungarian Viktor Orbán has once again challenged Brussels with a border closure;

Outside the doors, the conflicts are once again in the East: in the Eastern Mediterranean and in Belarus.

And as the European negotiator, Michel Barnier, recalled in a virtual conference for the Institute of European and International Affairs, the "political Brexit" of January 1, 2020 will be followed by the "economic and commercial" in four months.

"Von der Leyen has proven to be more skilled than was generally expected.

But no more imposing as a figure on the European scene, "says the founder and president of the

Friends of Europe, Giles Merritt.

Her leadership is also decimated by a powerful rotating presidency, that of Germany's Angela Merkel.

Community sources define it as a "happy coincidence" that Germany is at the fore in such a complex moment, but they admit that at the cost of once again putting the president of the Commission in the background.

“It is time for Von der Leyen, and therefore the Commission as a whole, to take center stage.

Brussels must present in a simple way a European strategy according to its new financial muscle ”, adds Merritt.

Around the corner is the State of the Union speech, where analysts expect a more assertive attitude.

These are the main challenges for the Commission in the new political course.

Indebtedness.

The European Commission will become one of the main players in the European financial market, with debt issues for 850,000 million euros to finance the temporary employment protection systems - such as the ERTEs - and the recovery plan.

According to executive sources, the creation of this kind of Treasury will require a great logistical effort and mobilization of officials in record time.

Recovery plans.

The capitals will begin to outline their investment and reform proposals to use the 750,000 million of the recovery plan in October, when they send their budget drafts to Brussels.

The Commission will have to negotiate with the States, reconciling the fears of the South to an intervention that is too intrusive and the misgivings of the North to a too lax action.

And, above all, it will have to find the formula for these massive investments to be the lever that takes the EU out of the recessionary and deflationary environment in which it finds itself.

Health crisis.

Brussels has already had to warn Hungary by letter about the closure of borders and ask it to rectify "immediately".

Faced with the danger of a new mess, the Commission wants to establish common criteria so that countries can impose quarantines or require tests on citizens arriving from another Member State.

In addition, she wants to continue leading the negotiations so that all capitals can obtain the covid vaccine when it is finally available.

Rule of law.

The EU will launch its new mechanism to assess the health of the rule of law of its partners in autumn.

The report may increase tensions with Warsaw or Budapest.

Both governments won a great victory from the July summit by ensuring that the disbursement of funds was not linked to respect for the rule of law.

And that letter up the sleeve is still there, since that pact must now be ratified by the national parliaments.

'Green Deal'.

Von der Leyen can resume the initiative if he succeeds in making the recovery plan to promote one of the most emblematic policies of his Commission: the New Green Deal.

Vice President Frans Timmermans announced at a conference organized by Bruegel that "in the coming weeks" the Commission will present the new target for cutting greenhouse gas emissions, which will be between 50% and 55%.

Brexit.

In the midst of the biggest recession Brussels has ever faced, the EU and the UK are four months away from economic and trade breakdown.

This can deepen the crisis if both parties cannot find an agreement on the issues on which, according to Barnier, London remains unintentionally close, especially fisheries and competition policy.

"We are less than four months away from January 1, 2021," Barnier warned.

Eastern Mediterranean.

Brussels has been putting aside the new migratory pact, which it first wanted to have ready at the beginning of the year and, later, after Easter.

Everything indicates that this autumn the Commission could present a roadmap.

However, immigration policy is closely linked to the tensions with Turkey, which went from sticking to the border with Greece to becoming a conflict of European dimensions that will be addressed at a summit of heads of state and government at the end of the month.