Once again, the settlement with the terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip is in fact a temporary respite. • Without a solution, the parties will reach a new escalation.
From the moment Hamas officially pledged to calm down, the ballooning completely stopped.
Preparation of balloons for launch in Rafah
Photo:
AFP
One has to start from the bottom line: nothing in the southern arena is over.
In Gaza, as in Gaza, this is only a temporary truce.
It may hold a month, two months or a little longer, but in the absence of a deep-rooted solution, the chances of which are slim, we will return to the same film sometime soon.
And yet, the calm achieved this week in Gaza is welcome.
The calm returned to the surrounding settlements, as well as to the residents of Gaza.
The physical damage caused by long weeks of balloons and fires was limited, but they exhausted the residents.
Gaza, too, escaped the IDF's intense attacks without significant damage (except to Hamas 'infrastructure), but it is not worth taking lightly what they did to the locals' nerves - and the pressure it exerted on Hamas.
And that, perhaps, is the whole story.
Unlike previous rounds, this time Hamas did not read Israel correctly, and came out with its hand on the bottom.
Israel has waged four parallel, synchronized efforts, which have led the Hamas leadership to accept a ceasefire on less favorable terms than it could have at the beginning of the escalation.
The first effort was military.
The policy pursued by Southern Command General Herzli Halevi, adopted by the General Staff and at the political level, was to produce a clear equation: every bloom would respond. Hamas tried to claim that the balloons were launched as part of a "popular protest," but Israel was careful to define it as terrorist activity.
This has led to the IDF attacking 19 times in the Gaza Strip in the last 22 days of the fires. For greater response and escalation.
The attacks focused on Hamas infrastructure.
The organization lost weapons and equipment for the production of weapons in the naval and aerial field, as well as elements in its defense system along the border and its tunneling capacity. Although this is not strategic damage to the organization, but in its financial situation re.
Elastic pressure on the strap
The second effort was in the area of civil sanctions.
It happened gradually, but in the end Israel went all the way.
Complete closure of the goods crossing in Kerem Shalom, including fuel, and complete closure of the fishing area.
A senior source defined it this week as an elastic band that, the more Israel stretched it, the more pressure was exerted on its end - on the residents, who put pressure on Hamas.
Although this is a collective punishment, it has been proven to be particularly effective in light of Hamas' sensitivity to the Gaza street crisis.
The third pressure was international.
In the current crisis, the two permanent mediators - Egypt and the UN - operated, but a third mediator was added, who turned out to be crucial: Qatar. If in the past Qatar was just a wallet that passes the monthly pile of dollars to the Gazans, this time it had demands. Muhammad al-'Amadi, arrived in Gaza with the money but refused to distribute it, as he did for five days - the suitcases with him, but until Hamas did not comply with his demands, the money remained in his suitcase.
As part of the negotiations, Qatar complied with Hamas' demand to increase the monthly amount from $ 30 million a month to $ 34 million (including fuel), and to pledge that a similar amount would be transferred in the coming months. On the other hand, Hamas pledged immediate and unconditional ceasefire. The organizations operating in Gaza The reality on the ground has shown how strong its grip on the Gaza Strip is, when it wants to: from the moment Hamas officially pledged to calm down, on Monday evening, the ballooning completely stopped.
As part of the agreement, Israel undertook to promote a number of projects.
From an effort to improve the medical situation in Gaza that is facing a renewed outbreak of the corona, through increasing quotas for exports of goods from the Gaza Strip to trying to promote strategic projects in infrastructure and employment.
Some things will be delayed due to the corona;
Although Israel intends to allow Gazan businessmen to hold more business meetings at the Erez crossing, in light of the fear of the epidemic spreading, the entry of merchants and workers into the country will be banned in the foreseeable future.
This is a severe blow to the Gaza economy, even though it was done at the request of Hamas, which fears that those entering Israel will bring the virus with them to the Gaza Strip and cause an outbreak.
The fourth effort was in the area of firefighting.
At the beginning of the road, a few balloons were launched from Gaza, which burned large areas.
In recent days, many balloons have been launched, burning small areas.
This was due to the coordinated work of all parties - the fire brigade, the police, the IDF, the localities in the envelope, the Nature and Parks Authority - who identified the blooms in time and treated them quickly. The result was that the effectiveness of balloons decreased, and with it Hamas' main card against Israel.
On the way to the starting point
Qatar's move to the front of the stage did not come in a vacuum.
He had two motives: one, they were tired of paying and not getting credit for it.
And the second, the overt political process that has erupted between Israel and the Emirates.
Qatar suddenly found itself on the side of the "bad guys", the irrelevant ones, those on the wrong side of history, and sought to improve its position.
This is not to say that Qatar has changed its path.
She remained a clear supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, hence a clear rival of the moderate Sunni axis led by Saudi Arabia and the Emirates.
But in Doha they realized that in order not to stay completely out of the game, it was better to go on the field and give it a fight.
Their mediation activity in the Gaza issue was part of this new policy;
For Israel, this is a blessing, because Qatar - through financial funding and political influence - can be another, effective leverage of pressure on Hamas' political and military leadership.
And yet, as mentioned, nothing in Gaza is over.
The respite is temporary, and fragile.
The basic problems of the Strip remain, and are enormous: poverty, unemployment, collapsing infrastructure - all of which require an immediate solution.
Defense Minister Bnei Gantz - and the IDF in his wake - is willing to work to promote a broad series, but as always there is the Israeli precondition of regulating the issue of prisoners and missing persons. In previous contacts on the issue, Hamas has set requirements that Israel has no intention of meeting (and even discussing). Prisoner-killers: It is possible that now, in the wake of the ongoing corona crisis in the Gaza Strip, Hamas will agree to flex its terms in exchange for humanitarian aid.
In the absence of a solution, or at least a process for a solution, the parties will quickly reach the starting point, and re-escalate on one ground or another.
The effort now - of all parties - is to write another end to this pre-determined scenario.
The chances of that are not high, but they are worth the experience.
Sooner or later, Israel may need a broad and bloody campaign in the Gaza Strip, and it must first turn every stone in order to try and avoid it.
