A new predictive model ensures that the United States faces the possibility of reaching 400,000 deaths from coronavirus by the end of 2020, due to the beginning of the winter season and the relaxation of care measures such as the use of a mask and distancing Social.
That means an average of more than 50,000 deaths per month for the remainder of the year.
In the previous projection, it was expected that there were no more than 35,000 deaths per month.
This is established by the Institute for Health Evaluation and Metrics (IHME) of the University of Washington, in its first global predictive model for COVID-19, which establishes that 770,000 lives could be saved worldwide if the recommendations of the health authorities.
If the measures are not followed, deaths worldwide could triple and exceed 2.8 million, with a total of 30,000 daily deaths in December.
The University of Washington projection model is frequently cited by the White House and constantly updates its forecasts.
Last June, he had anticipated that the United States would add at least 60,000 deaths during the summer, to reach 170,000 by the end of September.
As of today, there are 186,000 deaths.
Last month, the IHME projection established that the deceased could reach 300,000 by the beginning of December.
The increase currently established by the model is partly explained by the increase in COVID-19 cases that will be seen in the Northern Hemisphere due to the arrival of winter.
In this new model, the IHME made projections for each region of the world, including data up to August 31.
The model uses the mortality rate per infected case (TLI), "which substantially affects the number of infections and deaths estimated in our model, particularly in the younger age groups," they explain.
The model establishes three scenarios:
The worst case
: mask use is maintained at current rates and governments continue to relax the rules of social distancing.
Up to 4 million people could die by the end of the year worldwide.
The best case
: the use of a mask becomes universal and governments impose social distancing when the death rate exceeds 8 per million inhabitants.
2 million people could die
Most likely scenario
: mitigation measures remain unchanged.
Almost 3 million people could die by the end of 2020.
[WHO estimates that there will be no widely used coronavirus vaccine before mid-2021]
For the United States, in the most likely scenario, 410,000 people are predicted to have died as of January 1, 2021. That's more than double the current deaths, which total 186,800 according to the Johns Hopkins University Center for Science and Engineering. .
In the worst case, deaths could exceed 620,000.
Even in the best of scenarios, the United States will add 100,000 more deaths than it currently has.
[The United States exceeds 5 million cases of coronavirus, with little signs of improvement]
"To date, COVID-19 has followed patterns similar to those of pneumonia, and if that correlation continues, northern countries may anticipate more cases towards the end of the fall and in the winter months," says the IHME report. .
"We must learn from those leaders of nations where the virus has been contained, or where the second wave of infections has occurred, and where rapid action was taken to prevent loss of life," warned IHME director Dr. Christopher Murray.
Announcement of an early COVID-19 vaccine both encourages and worries the medical community
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Model anticipates new closings of the economy
The model for the Americas region also predicts which countries “need to re-impose mandates” to shut down the economy for six weeks, marked by a daily mortality greater than 8 cases per million inhabitants.
Among them, it is projected that Peru, Colombia and Honduras will have to decree closures in September;
Costa Rica, Mexico, the United States and Suriname in October;
Dominican Republic, Panama and El Salvador, in November.
The rest of the countries do not require reestablishment of mandates before December 1.
[After the reopening, infections increased, are there possibilities of a new shutdown of the economy?]
By the end of 2020, it is estimated that eight countries in the region have more than 22% of their infected population.
Mexico and Peru will have between 33% and 39% and in Ecuador almost half of its inhabitants will have been infected.
If the use of face masks reaches 95% of the population, 156,000 lives could be saved in the region by January 1, the report says.
